Micron is a small position and he is cautious on memory cycles, but bullish: $54 billion revenue, up 379%; strategic deals guarantee about 35% of revenue through 2030, with $32 billion commitments softening cycles; 2027 HBM prices are much higher, HBM4/SSD demand is a big opportunity, and 4.09 forward P/E is cheap.
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And there are other names, even Micron, right? It has decreased by 14.6% over the past few days.
Now, I want to move on to the field of memory, right? This is going to be a long video, but Micron is achieving huge results, isn't it? $54 billion in revenue in the last quarter, an increase of 379%, and a 30% increase on a quarterly basis.
So, the growth is still insane . Most importantly, there is clearly a major negative argument here, which is the cyclical nature of the memory domain. But Micron stated that it had signed 26 strategic agreements with customers.
Within those 26 agreements, approximately 35% of revenues are guaranteed through 2030. Three-quarters of those contracts contain pricing frameworks, most with lower and upper limits, and even the lower limits are far better than anything Micron has ever seen before.
We also recently saw Elon pay some sort of tribute or praise to Micron for not being completely bullying in this memory market , and that really caught my attention, and I think it's quite remarkable.
The remaining quarter of the deals they are working on are still being negotiated according to market prices. Currently, the financial commitments from customers for those signed agreements amount to approximately $32 billion.
So, overall, this reduces the cyclical fluctuations a little, and many of the numbers, especially the lower limits, are still better than any previous cycle Micron has gone through.
In the next quarter, which is now, we will also begin to see a share buyback program from Micron , a company that has a lot of free cash flow available to it.
The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, isn't it ? The HBM market also continues to be a huge opportunity for them. They stated that HBM prices for calendar year 2027 are actually much higher on an annual basis.
So, we are expected to see good year-on-year growth next year, right ? The year 2027 , because the prices they set were absolutely astonishing. I truly believe the market is not ready for the type of prices we are going to see.
The implementation of HBM 4 technology continues to be a tremendous opportunity for them. They are working to increase the complexity of this technology, which makes HBM, at least for the time being, a kind of competitive protection, since if you cannot build the most advanced HBM solutions, you are
Now, this is also a double-edged sword, because if you are a player in this field, you cannot afford to be late in innovating. Any slowdown in innovation may create a lot of fear, but Micron in the field of HBM is certainly sitting at very attractive levels in the memory sector.
Now, the AI context not only improves your DRAM memory and other solutions. It even increases the chances of solid-state drives (SSDs). This is a market where they made around $10 billion in their last quarter.
More than two-thirds of Micron's NAND memory revenue came from this market. Once again , with the need for more AI context , managing this is a tremendous opportunity. We are witnessing this tremendous growth in the SSD market , and the cache memory market continues to grow with other players as well.
Now, Micron's earnings and price-to-earnings ratios are extremely cheap. This is one of the arguments supporting the rise.
Now, Micron is a new investment in my overall portfolio, but let me just say it's not huge, is it? I don't even think it comes close to 3 or 4% of my investment portfolio. I'm still very hesitant, or I want to say very cautious, towards the memory sector, but I just wanted to get some exposure to it , didn't I?
A large part of my exposure is concentrated in cloud computing and artificial intelligence chips. I am trying to broaden some of the exposure to include names in the field of optics and the memory sector.
I already have exposure to the networking sector, don't I? So, it’s about increasing exposure in different industries and trying to find some good players in them. Micron was my way of doing that.
Now, for fiscal year 2027, which could start about 10 months from now based on the upper limit of earnings per share, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 4.09.
So, it's extremely cheap, very cheap. Again, one of the big concerns here is the possibility of any changes in the memory market, but we can see here that this is not the case.
Again, this is more like an investment for control, but I'm excited to be at Micron right now.
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