Micron 是小仓位，他对存储周期保持谨慎，但看多：营收540亿美元，增长379%；战略协议锁定到2030年约35%的营收，其中320亿美元承诺有助于平缓周期；2027年 HBM 价格大幅上涨，HBM4/SSD 需求是重大机会，4.09倍远期市盈率便宜。
逐段跳播
还有其他标的，甚至包括 Micron，对吧？它在过去几天里下跌了14.6%。
And there are other names, even Micron, right? It has decreased by 14.6% over the past few days.
现在，我想接着谈存储领域，对吧？这个视频会很长，但 Micron 正在取得巨大的业绩，不是吗？上季度营收540亿美元，增长了379%，环比增长30%。所以，增长依然非常惊人。最重要的是，这里显然存在一个重大的负面论点，那就是存储领域的周期性。
但 Micron 表示，它已与客户签署了26份战略协议。在这26份协议中，大约35%的营收到2030年是有保障的。这些合同中有四分之三包含定价框架，大多数设有下限和上限，而且即便是下限也远好于 Micron 以往见过的任何水平。
Now, I want to move on to the field of memory, right? This is going to be a long video, but Micron is achieving huge results, isn't it? $54 billion in revenue in the last quarter, an increase of 379%, and a 30% increase on a quarterly basis.
So, the growth is still insane . Most importantly, there is clearly a major negative argument here, which is the cyclical nature of the memory domain. But Micron stated that it had signed 26 strategic agreements with customers.
Within those 26 agreements, approximately 35% of revenues are guaranteed through 2030. Three-quarters of those contracts contain pricing frameworks, most with lower and upper limits, and even the lower limits are far better than anything Micron has ever seen before.
我们最近还看到 Elon 对 Micron 表达了某种致敬或赞扬，因为它在存储市场上没有完全恃强凌弱，这确实引起了我的注意，我认为这相当了不起。
We also recently saw Elon pay some sort of tribute or praise to Micron for not being completely bullying in this memory market , and that really caught my attention, and I think it's quite remarkable.
他们正在推进的其余四分之一交易仍在按市场价格进行谈判。目前，客户对这些已签署协议的财务承诺约为320亿美元。所以，总体而言，这在一定程度上减小了周期性波动，而且许多数字，尤其是下限，仍然好于 Micron 此前经历过的任何周期。
The remaining quarter of the deals they are working on are still being negotiated according to market prices. Currently, the financial commitments from customers for those signed agreements amount to approximately $32 billion.
So, overall, this reduces the cyclical fluctuations a little, and many of the numbers, especially the lower limits, are still better than any previous cycle Micron has gone through.
在下一季度，也就是现在，我们还将开始看到 Micron 的股票回购计划，这家公司拥有大量可用的自由现金流。
In the next quarter, which is now, we will also begin to see a share buyback program from Micron , a company that has a lot of free cash flow available to it.
高带宽内存（HBM）市场，不是吗？HBM 市场对他们来说也继续是一个巨大的机会。他们表示，2027自然年的 HBM 价格按年度计算实际上要高得多。所以，我们预计明年会看到不错的同比增长，对吧？
2027年，因为他们设定的价格绝对令人震惊。我真的认为市场还没有准备好迎接我们将要看到的那种价格。
The high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, isn't it ? The HBM market also continues to be a huge opportunity for them. They stated that HBM prices for calendar year 2027 are actually much higher on an annual basis.
So, we are expected to see good year-on-year growth next year, right ? The year 2027 , because the prices they set were absolutely astonishing. I truly believe the market is not ready for the type of prices we are going to see.
HBM 4技术的落地对他们来说继续是一个巨大的机会。他们正致力于提高这项技术的复杂度，这使得 HBM 至少目前成为一种竞争保护，因为如果你无法打造最先进的 HBM 解决方案，你就
The implementation of HBM 4 technology continues to be a tremendous opportunity for them. They are working to increase the complexity of this technology, which makes HBM, at least for the time being, a kind of competitive protection, since if you cannot build the most advanced HBM solutions, you are
现在，这也是一把双刃剑，因为如果你是这个领域的参与者，你在创新上就承担不起落后的代价。创新上的任何放缓都可能引发大量担忧，但 Micron 在 HBM 领域无疑处于存储板块中非常有吸引力的水平。
Now, this is also a double-edged sword, because if you are a player in this field, you cannot afford to be late in innovating. Any slowdown in innovation may create a lot of fear, but Micron in the field of HBM is certainly sitting at very attractive levels in the memory sector.
现在，AI 的语境不仅提升了你的 DRAM 内存和其他解决方案，甚至也增加了固态硬盘（SSD）的机会。这是一个他们上季度做到约100亿美元的市场。Micron 的 NAND 内存营收中有超过三分之二来自这个市场。
再一次，随着对更多 AI 语境的需求，管理这一点是一个巨大的机会。我们正目睹 SSD 市场的巨大增长，而缓存内存市场也在与其他参与者一起继续增长。
Now, the AI context not only improves your DRAM memory and other solutions. It even increases the chances of solid-state drives (SSDs). This is a market where they made around $10 billion in their last quarter.
More than two-thirds of Micron's NAND memory revenue came from this market. Once again , with the need for more AI context , managing this is a tremendous opportunity. We are witnessing this tremendous growth in the SSD market , and the cache memory market continues to grow with other players as well.
现在，Micron 的盈利和市盈率极其便宜。这是支撑上涨的论点之一。
Now, Micron's earnings and price-to-earnings ratios are extremely cheap. This is one of the arguments supporting the rise.
现在，Micron 是我整体投资组合中的一项新投资，但我要说它并不大，对吧？我甚至认为它连我投资组合的3%或4%都不到。我对存储板块仍然非常犹豫，或者说我想说非常谨慎，但我只是想获得一些敞口，不是吗？
Now, Micron is a new investment in my overall portfolio, but let me just say it's not huge, is it? I don't even think it comes close to 3 or 4% of my investment portfolio. I'm still very hesitant, or I want to say very cautious, towards the memory sector, but I just wanted to get some exposure to it , didn't I?
我的敞口很大一部分集中在云计算和人工智能芯片上。我正在尝试拓宽一些敞口，把光学领域和存储板块的标的也纳入进来。我已经有网络板块的敞口了，不是吗？所以，这关乎增加不同行业的敞口，并尝试在其中找到一些好的参与者。Micron 就是我实现这一目标的方式。
A large part of my exposure is concentrated in cloud computing and artificial intelligence chips. I am trying to broaden some of the exposure to include names in the field of optics and the memory sector.
I already have exposure to the networking sector, don't I? So, it’s about increasing exposure in different industries and trying to find some good players in them. Micron was my way of doing that.
现在，对于2027财年，按每股收益上限计算，该财年可能在大约10个月后开始，该股的远期市盈率约为4.09。所以，它极其便宜，非常便宜。再次强调，这里的一大担忧是存储市场可能出现的任何变化，但我们可以看到情况并非如此。
再次强调，这更像是一笔为了控制而做的投资，但我很高兴现在持有 Micron。
Now, for fiscal year 2027, which could start about 10 months from now based on the upper limit of earnings per share, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 4.09.
So, it's extremely cheap, very cheap. Again, one of the big concerns here is the possibility of any changes in the memory market, but we can see here that this is not the case.
Again, this is more like an investment for control, but I'm excited to be at Micron right now.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。