Micron is an attractive buy at current prices: after a 15% selloff, expected P/E is about five and price-to-growth 0.07, far below the sector. Chinese supply fears ignore worsening memory shortage and contracts covering >35% of revenue through 2030; 2029 sales >$320B imply P/E near five, though risks are real.
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Okay, that will now lead us to our third and final arrow for today. This stock will be the American cornerstone of the entire memory market, Micron Technology, whose stock symbol is MU.
Now, while SanDisk focuses on enterprise flash storage and SK Hynix is the leading Korean company in HBM memory, Micron offers plenty of both with strong local manufacturing capability as well.
Now, about 73% of its business comes from dynamic random access memory (DRAM), as it rapidly expands its HBM memory production and even collaborates directly with Nvidia on HBM dedicated to enterprise architectures.
The remaining 26% comes from high-performance NAND flash memory and SSD storage units for data centers. This diversity is what has made Micron one of the best integrated memory suppliers for giant US cloud computing companies, due to its ability to meet their multiple needs.
Like the rest of the group, Micron's stock was not spared from the recent sell-off , falling by about 15% in the last month alone , losing more than a quarter of its value from its highest levels.
But again, the stock left a very low valuation, with the expected share price at only about five, 76% lower than the sector average, and the expected price-to-growth ratio at just 0.07, which is not only one of the lowest ratios you could see in the market, but also more than 90% lower than the sector average.
That's an astonishingly low multiplier for a giant domestic tech company like this .
But the panic here stemmed from the same headlines, and concerns about Chinese memory manufacturers such as CXMT, which could eventually flood the market with cheaper alternative supplies, potentially causing the entire sector to peak.
But in my opinion, this ignores the reality we are witnessing on the ground today .
Michael Dell , for example, the billionaire founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of computers, servers and enterprise infrastructure, certainly knows what he’s talking about, but he recently stated that the enterprise memory shortage is getting worse , and will get worse as we enter next year as well.
In fact, Micron's CEO went even further, saying in their latest earnings call that supply and demand conditions will remain more challenging until 2028 than they were this year.
Well, you can see the results of all this demand directly in this earnings report, which was simply amazing. During the full fiscal year, Micron generated revenues of approximately $133 billion, marking a significant jump of 256% year-on-year , with revenues from its Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) business alone exceeding $100 billion.
In the last quarter alone , revenues rose 379% year-over-year to exceed $54 billion in just one quarter. Gross profit margins also expanded from 46% to a record high of 87%. Earnings per share jumped from $3.03 a year ago to more than $33 per share, an unprecedented record.
The company also achieved net operating cash flows of nearly $90 billion during the year.
Most importantly, Micron has undertaken a comprehensive overhaul of its revenue model to protect against any future economic downturn , having already signed 26 strategic agreements with customers covering more than 35% of its total revenue through 2030.
These are multi-year contracts with predetermined prices, currently valued at more than $32 billion , the vast majority of which are direct cash deposits. Major customers such as HP and Dell are extending these contracts until 2031.
Google has even held talks to secure memory supplies until 2035.
As we have seen with other companies, even if we compare analysts' forecasts for 2029, when supply is supposed to keep pace with demand, Micron will still expect to achieve sales exceeding $320 billion.
Compare that to the past three years, in which its average sales were less than $40 billion. That's tens of billions compared to hundreds of billions now. Even when net income was not negative, it was still in the single digits.
While 2029 will see net profits exceeding $200 billion for this year alone . This means that the price-to-earnings ratio will remain close to five.
Again, I do not deny that there are some concerns that should be taken seriously, but even with a possible future price drop, this company will still be far ahead of what it was previously.
I believe this situation presents a very attractive investment opportunity at current prices.