美光在当前价格下是具吸引力的买入标的：经历15%的抛售后，预期市盈率约为五倍、PEG为0.07，远低于行业水平。对中国供应的担忧忽视了内存短缺加剧、以及覆盖2030年前超过35%营收的合同；2029年销售额超过3200亿美元意味着市盈率接近五倍，不过风险确实存在。
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好，这将引出我们今天第三支也是最后一支箭。这只股票将是整个存储市场的美国基石——Micron Technology，股票代码是 MU。
Okay, that will now lead us to our third and final arrow for today. This stock will be the American cornerstone of the entire memory market, Micron Technology, whose stock symbol is MU.
现在，SanDisk 专注于企业级闪存存储，SK Hynix 是韩国 HBM 存储领域的领先公司，而 Micron 在这两方面都有大量业务，并且还拥有强大的本土制造能力。
Now, while SanDisk focuses on enterprise flash storage and SK Hynix is the leading Korean company in HBM memory, Micron offers plenty of both with strong local manufacturing capability as well.
目前，其约 73% 的业务来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM），因为它正迅速扩大 HBM 存储产量，甚至直接与 Nvidia 合作开发专用于企业架构的 HBM。其余 26% 来自高性能 NAND 闪存和数据中心用 SSD 存储单元。
正是这种多元化使 Micron 成为美国大型云计算公司最佳的综合性存储供应商之一，因为它能够满足它们的多种需求。
Now, about 73% of its business comes from dynamic random access memory (DRAM), as it rapidly expands its HBM memory production and even collaborates directly with Nvidia on HBM dedicated to enterprise architectures.
The remaining 26% comes from high-performance NAND flash memory and SSD storage units for data centers. This diversity is what has made Micron one of the best integrated memory suppliers for giant US cloud computing companies, due to its ability to meet their multiple needs.
与板块其他公司一样，Micron 的股票也未能幸免于近期的抛售，仅上个月就下跌了约 15%，较最高水平已蒸发超过四分之一。
Like the rest of the group, Micron's stock was not spared from the recent sell-off , falling by about 15% in the last month alone , losing more than a quarter of its value from its highest levels.
但同样，这只股票留下了极低的估值，预期市盈率仅约 5，比行业平均水平低 76%，预期市销增长比仅为 0.07，这不仅是市场上你能看到的最低比率之一，而且比行业平均水平低 90% 以上。
对于这样一家美国本土科技巨头来说，这个倍数低得惊人。
But again, the stock left a very low valuation, with the expected share price at only about five, 76% lower than the sector average, and the expected price-to-growth ratio at just 0.07, which is not only one of the lowest ratios you could see in the market, but also more than 90% lower than the sector average.
That's an astonishingly low multiplier for a giant domestic tech company like this .
但这里的恐慌源于同样的新闻标题，以及对CXMT等中国存储芯片制造商的担忧——它们最终可能以更便宜的替代供应大量涌入市场，可能导致整个行业见顶。但在我看来，这忽视了我们在当下实地所看到的现实。
But the panic here stemmed from the same headlines, and concerns about Chinese memory manufacturers such as CXMT, which could eventually flood the market with cheaper alternative supplies, potentially causing the entire sector to peak.
But in my opinion, this ignores the reality we are witnessing on the ground today .
例如，Michael Dell——全球最大的计算机、服务器和企业基础设施制造商之一Dell Technologies的亿万富翁创始人兼CEO——当然知道自己在说什么，但他最近表示，企业级存储芯片短缺正在加剧，而且随着我们进入明年还会进一步恶化。
Michael Dell , for example, the billionaire founder and CEO of Dell Technologies, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of computers, servers and enterprise infrastructure, certainly knows what he’s talking about, but he recently stated that the enterprise memory shortage is getting worse , and will get worse as we enter next year as well.
事实上，Micron的CEO说得更进一步，在最新财报电话会议上表示，直到2028年，供需状况都将比今年更具挑战性。
In fact, Micron's CEO went even further, saying in their latest earnings call that supply and demand conditions will remain more challenging until 2028 than they were this year.
你可以在这份财报中直接看到所有这些需求带来的结果，简直令人惊叹。在整个财年，Micron实现营收约1330亿美元，同比大幅跃升256%，仅其动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）业务的营收就超过1000亿美元。
仅在上个季度，营收就同比增长379%，单季超过540亿美元。毛利率也从46%扩大到创纪录的87%。每股收益从一年前的3.03美元跃升至每股超过33美元，创下前所未有的纪录。公司当年还实现了近900亿美元的净经营现金流。
Well, you can see the results of all this demand directly in this earnings report, which was simply amazing. During the full fiscal year, Micron generated revenues of approximately $133 billion, marking a significant jump of 256% year-on-year , with revenues from its Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) business alone exceeding $100 billion.
In the last quarter alone , revenues rose 379% year-over-year to exceed $54 billion in just one quarter. Gross profit margins also expanded from 46% to a record high of 87%. Earnings per share jumped from $3.03 a year ago to more than $33 per share, an unprecedented record.
The company also achieved net operating cash flows of nearly $90 billion during the year.
最重要的是，Micron对其营收模式进行了全面改革，以防范未来任何经济下行，已与客户签署26份战略协议，覆盖其到2030年总营收的35%以上。这些是价格预先确定的多年度合同，目前价值超过320亿美元，其中绝大多数是直接现金存款。
HP和Dell等主要客户正将这些合同延长至2031年。Google甚至已进行谈判，以确保直到2035年的存储芯片供应。
Most importantly, Micron has undertaken a comprehensive overhaul of its revenue model to protect against any future economic downturn , having already signed 26 strategic agreements with customers covering more than 35% of its total revenue through 2030.
These are multi-year contracts with predetermined prices, currently valued at more than $32 billion , the vast majority of which are direct cash deposits. Major customers such as HP and Dell are extending these contracts until 2031.
Google has even held talks to secure memory supplies until 2035.
正如我们在其他公司身上看到的那样，即便我们比较分析师对2029年的预测——届时供应预计将与需求保持同步——Micron仍预计将实现超过3200亿美元的销售额。相比之下，过去三年其平均销售额不到400亿美元。
那是数百亿与如今数千亿的对比。即便净利润不为负时，也仍停留在个位数。而2029年仅这一年净利润就将超过2000亿美元。这意味着市盈率将保持在接近五倍的水平。
As we have seen with other companies, even if we compare analysts' forecasts for 2029, when supply is supposed to keep pace with demand, Micron will still expect to achieve sales exceeding $320 billion.
Compare that to the past three years, in which its average sales were less than $40 billion. That's tens of billions compared to hundreds of billions now. Even when net income was not negative, it was still in the single digits.
While 2029 will see net profits exceeding $200 billion for this year alone . This means that the price-to-earnings ratio will remain close to five.
再次说明，我并不否认存在一些应当认真对待的担忧，但即便未来可能出现价格下跌，这家公司仍将远远领先于它过去的状态。我认为，在当前价格下，这一局面提供了非常有吸引力的投资机会。
Again, I do not deny that there are some concerns that should be taken seriously, but even with a possible future price drop, this company will still be far ahead of what it was previously.
I believe this situation presents a very attractive investment opportunity at current prices.