NFLX has collapsed and remains in a bad position with no near-term catalyst and no optimistic guidance, so it is expected to stay stuck in the mud and keep sliding lower. Post-earnings price-target cuts, after fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $13.44 billion, were a reassessment, not pessimism.
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Netflix shares are trading down 4.5%, while Walt Disney shares have fallen by more than 1%. SkyDance shares are heading down 2.7%, and Comcast is currently down 3.5%.
I mean, a quick search will reveal a long list of price target reductions, but it certainly seems more like a reassessment than a shift towards pessimism regarding the stock. Yes, you have hit the nail on the head.
It's not necessarily pessimistic, but there's been a lot of price target reductions this morning following these figures.
Let's look at the reasons. We are looking at Netflix at its lowest point in almost two years. Revenue forecasts came in lower than expected. This appears to be what is actually overshadowing Netflix's superiority in actual profits, leading to this series of downward adjustments to price targets.
The company projected revenues of $13.44 billion for the fourth quarter. This is less than the estimates that were looking at just over 13.5 billion. They also lowered their advertising revenue guidance from $3 billion to $2.7 billion due to the slower-than-expected rollout of some advertising product features.
Co-CEO Greg Peters acknowledged on the call that the business, as he called it, is "currently a little behind our ambitious goal for this year."
Their third-quarter revenue was in line with analysts' expectations. Earnings per share rose by 5 cents to 87 cents, but we saw a wave of price target cuts in response. Although most of them maintained positive ratings.
Needham was the exception. They went even further. They have already downgraded the stock rating from "buy" to "hold" without setting a price target.
An analyst at Needham warned: "We are concerned that increased competition is pushing towards margin pressure and slowing revenue growth at Netflix."
Needham also says that they see the problem with Netflix's content, as they claim, as obvious. While the company believes Peter Rice is an excellent television executive, they say it will take him about two years to fix the company's $20 billion content catalog, noting that Netflix's strategic position relative to YouTube, in their view, is deteriorating.
As for lowering price targets, Barclays Bank maintained its "equivalent weight" rating. They have lowered their price target to $65. But the analyst wrote in his note that with growth prospects for next year remaining limited, Netflix stock, he said, may not recover this year.
UBS lowered its price target from $115 to $100, but maintained its "buy" rating. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $90 to $84. Oppenheimer lowered his target from $85 to $80, while also maintaining his "outperforming" rating.
Guggenheim still recommends buying, but has lowered its price target to $78. Citizens has reaffirmed its "market performance" rating for Netflix stock. Wedbush maintained its "outperforming" rating, while lowering its price target to $80.
Bernstein maintained his "outperforming" rating and lowered his price target to $80. Moffett Nathanson lowered her price target to $90.
As you pointed out, Sam, it's not necessarily a real change in the vision of many of these companies, but just a downward reassessment after these results. The lowest target I found here was from Guggenheim at $78.
This is their price target. Currently, we are at $67.37 with this drop of nearly 5% following the earnings announcement.
Good. We are looking at Netflix today as it trades lower. How would you handle a typical trading deal on this stock? The stock has come under significant pressure. The stock has collapsed, and it still looks to be in a very bad position.
I don't see any catalyst for the stock, at least in the near term here. He's kind of stuck in the mud. As you know, they certainly didn't offer any kind of optimistic forecast.
Therefore, I will buy some time in the downward direction. What I will do is buy a "spread" for diagonal put options. I will sell a put option with a strike price of $60 and an expiry date of November 20 to fund the purchase of a put option with a strike price of $63 and an expiry date of January.
I can do that for about two dollars. The reason I want to do this now after the earnings is that the bonus levels have dropped too much. This is what we call "crushing implicit fluctuations" that we see.
So, I basically expect Netflix to stay stuck in the mud, but to continue sliding further and further down.
Okay, good look at Netflix this morning. As I said, she's a bit stuck in the mud here. I think it needs something to reassure investors about its strategy for the next phase, especially after the recent management changes that were somewhat surprising.
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