$NFLX

NFLX 已经崩跌,目前处境依然糟糕,既无近期催化剂,也无乐观指引,因此预计将持续陷于泥潭并继续走低。在第四季度营收指引为 134.4 亿美元之后,财报发布后的目标价下调属于重新评估,而非悲观情绪。

看跌他说的是几个月内
《NFLX Taps 2-Year Low After Earnings: What Has Investors Dialing Down Bullishness》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-21 · 14 段内容
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14 段内容
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Netflix 股价下跌4.5%,而 Walt Disney 股价跌幅超过1%。SkyDance 股价下跌2.7%,Comcast 目前下跌3.5%。

Netflix shares are trading down 4.5%, while Walt Disney shares have fallen by more than 1%. SkyDance shares are heading down 2.7%, and Comcast is currently down 3.5%.

简单搜索一下就会发现一长串目标价下调,但这看起来更像是重新评估,而不是对该股转向悲观。是的,你说到点子上了。这未必是悲观,但今早这些数据公布后出现了大量目标价下调。

I mean, a quick search will reveal a long list of price target reductions, but it certainly seems more like a reassessment than a shift towards pessimism regarding the stock. Yes, you have hit the nail on the head.

It's not necessarily pessimistic, but there's been a lot of price target reductions this morning following these figures.

我们来看看原因。Netflix 目前处于近两年来的最低点。营收预测低于预期。这似乎才是真正掩盖了 Netflix 在实际利润方面优势的因素,导致了一系列目标价下调。

Let's look at the reasons. We are looking at Netflix at its lowest point in almost two years. Revenue forecasts came in lower than expected. This appears to be what is actually overshadowing Netflix's superiority in actual profits, leading to this series of downward adjustments to price targets.

公司预计第四季度营收为134.4亿美元。这低于此前略高于135亿美元的预期。他们还因部分广告产品功能推出慢于预期,将广告收入指引从30亿美元下调至27亿美元。

The company projected revenues of $13.44 billion for the fourth quarter. This is less than the estimates that were looking at just over 13.5 billion. They also lowered their advertising revenue guidance from $3 billion to $2.7 billion due to the slower-than-expected rollout of some advertising product features.

联席首席执行官 Greg Peters 在电话会议上承认,该业务——他这样称呼——"目前略微落后于我们今年的宏伟目标"。

Co-CEO Greg Peters acknowledged on the call that the business, as he called it, is "currently a little behind our ambitious goal for this year."

他们第三季度营收符合分析师预期。每股收益上涨5美分至87美分,但我们看到了一波目标价下调作为回应。尽管其中大多数维持了正面评级。

Their third-quarter revenue was in line with analysts' expectations. Earnings per share rose by 5 cents to 87 cents, but we saw a wave of price target cuts in response. Although most of them maintained positive ratings.

Needham 是个例外。他们走得更远。他们已经将股票评级从"买入"下调至"持有",且未设定目标价。

Needham was the exception. They went even further. They have already downgraded the stock rating from "buy" to "hold" without setting a price target.

Needham 的一位分析师警告称:"我们担心竞争加剧正推动 Netflix 面临利润率压力并导致营收增长放缓。"

An analyst at Needham warned: "We are concerned that increased competition is pushing towards margin pressure and slowing revenue growth at Netflix."

Needham 还表示,他们认为 Netflix 的内容问题——如他们所称——显而易见。虽然公司认为 Peter Rice 是一位出色的电视高管,但他们表示,他大约需要两年时间才能修复公司200亿美元的内容库,并指出在他们看来,Netflix 相对于 YouTube 的战略地位正在恶化。

Needham also says that they see the problem with Netflix's content, as they claim, as obvious. While the company believes Peter Rice is an excellent television executive, they say it will take him about two years to fix the company's $20 billion content catalog, noting that Netflix's strategic position relative to YouTube, in their view, is deteriorating.

至于下调目标价,Barclays Bank 维持其"等权重"评级。他们已将目标价下调至65美元。但该分析师在报告中写道,由于明年的增长前景仍然有限,他表示 Netflix 股价今年可能不会回升。

As for lowering price targets, Barclays Bank maintained its "equivalent weight" rating. They have lowered their price target to $65. But the analyst wrote in his note that with growth prospects for next year remaining limited, Netflix stock, he said, may not recover this year.

UBS 将目标价从115美元下调至100美元,但维持"买入"评级。Goldman Sachs 将目标价从90美元下调至84美元。Oppenheimer 将其目标价从85美元下调至80美元,同时维持"跑赢大盘"评级。

Guggenheim 仍建议买入,但已将目标价下调至78美元。Citizens 重申对 Netflix 股票的"市场表现"评级。Wedbush 维持"跑赢大盘"评级,同时将目标价下调至80美元。

Bernstein 维持"跑赢大盘"评级,并将目标价下调至80美元。Moffett Nathanson 将目标价下调至90美元。

UBS lowered its price target from $115 to $100, but maintained its "buy" rating. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $90 to $84. Oppenheimer lowered his target from $85 to $80, while also maintaining his "outperforming" rating.

Guggenheim still recommends buying, but has lowered its price target to $78. Citizens has reaffirmed its "market performance" rating for Netflix stock. Wedbush maintained its "outperforming" rating, while lowering its price target to $80.

Bernstein maintained his "outperforming" rating and lowered his price target to $80. Moffett Nathanson lowered her price target to $90.

正如你指出的,Sam,这未必是许多公司愿景的真正改变,而只是这些业绩公布后的向下重新评估。我在这里找到的最低目标价来自 Guggenheim,为78美元。这是他们的目标价。目前,在财报公布后下跌近5%的情况下,我们处于67.37美元。

As you pointed out, Sam, it's not necessarily a real change in the vision of many of these companies, but just a downward reassessment after these results. The lowest target I found here was from Guggenheim at $78.

This is their price target. Currently, we are at $67.37 with this drop of nearly 5% following the earnings announcement.

好。我们今天关注 Netflix,其股价正在走低。你会如何处理这只股票的典型交易?该股已承受巨大压力。股价已经暴跌,而且看起来仍处于非常糟糕的位置。至少在这里的近期,我看不到该股有任何催化剂。

它有点陷入泥潭。如你所知,他们确实没有提供任何乐观的预测。因此,我会在下跌方向上争取一些时间。我要做的是买入一个对角线看跌期权"价差"。我会卖出一份行权价为60美元、到期日为11月20日的看跌期权,为买入一份行权价为63美元、到期日为1月的看跌期权提供资金。

我大约可以用两美元做到这一点。我想在财报后现在这样做的原因是,溢价水平已经下降太多。这就是我们看到的所谓"压碎隐含波动"。所以,我基本上预计 Netflix 会继续陷在泥潭里,但会继续进一步下滑。

Good. We are looking at Netflix today as it trades lower. How would you handle a typical trading deal on this stock? The stock has come under significant pressure. The stock has collapsed, and it still looks to be in a very bad position.

I don't see any catalyst for the stock, at least in the near term here. He's kind of stuck in the mud. As you know, they certainly didn't offer any kind of optimistic forecast.

Therefore, I will buy some time in the downward direction. What I will do is buy a "spread" for diagonal put options. I will sell a put option with a strike price of $60 and an expiry date of November 20 to fund the purchase of a put option with a strike price of $63 and an expiry date of January.

I can do that for about two dollars. The reason I want to do this now after the earnings is that the bonus levels have dropped too much. This is what we call "crushing implicit fluctuations" that we see.

So, I basically expect Netflix to stay stuck in the mud, but to continue sliding further and further down.

好,今早对 Netflix 的看法不错。正如我所说,它在这里有点陷入泥潭。我认为它需要一些东西来让投资者对其下一阶段的战略放心,尤其是在最近有些令人意外的管理层变动之后。

Okay, good look at Netflix this morning. As I said, she's a bit stuck in the mud here. I think it needs something to reassure investors about its strategy for the next phase, especially after the recent management changes that were somewhat surprising.

这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 12 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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