Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. on $NFLX (Nov 7, 2026)
NFLX looks good on $11 billion free cash flow, pricing power, a historically low P/E and a strong business position; it might get cheaper and he may wait, accepting missed gains. He sees long-run loss as unlikely: intrinsic value implies roughly tripling in 10 years in the base case, quadrupling best, and roughly doubling in the weak case (a 50% decade gain); he keeps it at a 10% potential return and medium risk.
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Netflix, we just discussed it yesterday, and the main question is, do you want to own Netflix? $11 billion in free cash flow, the ability to raise prices, a historically low price-to-earnings ratio, and a strong and interesting business position.
It looks good. It might get cheaper, or I might not own it because I'm waiting a little longer for it to get even cheaper. I may miss out on the profit, but that's always acceptable.
You ca n't have everything. The truth is that it is difficult to lose money on this investment in the long run. At least I hope so. Because when I look at the intrinsic value that we calculate in the video, your money will roughly triple in the next 10 years in the basic case, quadruple in the best case, and still roughly double your money , or a 50% profit, which is not a great return over a decade, but you are unlikely to lose.
So I'll keep it here, potential return of 10%, medium risk, there's nothing wrong with it.
What this channel has said about $NFLX
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. has 4 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.