$NFLX · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-07
NFLX 在 110 亿自由现金流、定价权、历史低位的市盈率和强大的业务地位上看起来不错；它可能变得更便宜，他或许会等待，接受错失收益。他认为长期亏损不太可能：内在价值意味着基准情形下 10 年约翻三倍，最好情形翻四倍，弱势情形约翻倍（十年 50% 涨幅）；他将其保持在 10% 潜在回报和中等风险。
逐段跳播
Netflix，我们昨天刚讨论过，主要问题是，你想不想持有 Netflix？110亿美元的自由现金流、提价能力、历史上偏低的市盈率，以及强大而有趣的业务地位。看起来不错。它可能会变得更便宜，或者我可能不会持有，因为我在多等一段时间，等它变得更便宜。
我可能会错过利润，但这总是可以接受的。你不可能什么都得到。事实是，从长期来看，这笔投资很难亏钱。至少我希望如此。因为当我们看视频里计算的内在价值时，在基本情形下，你的钱在未来10年大约会变成三倍，在最好情形下变成四倍，而仍然大约翻倍，也就是50%的利润，这在十年里不算很好的回报，但你不太可能亏损。
所以我会把它放在这里，潜在回报10%，中等风险，这没什么问题。
Netflix, we just discussed it yesterday, and the main question is, do you want to own Netflix? $11 billion in free cash flow, the ability to raise prices, a historically low price-to-earnings ratio, and a strong and interesting business position.
It looks good. It might get cheaper, or I might not own it because I'm waiting a little longer for it to get even cheaper. I may miss out on the profit, but that's always acceptable.
You ca n't have everything. The truth is that it is difficult to lose money on this investment in the long run. At least I hope so. Because when I look at the intrinsic value that we calculate in the video, your money will roughly triple in the next 10 years in the basic case, quadruple in the best case, and still roughly double your money , or a 50% profit, which is not a great return over a decade, but you are unlikely to lose.
So I'll keep it here, potential return of 10%, medium risk, there's nothing wrong with it.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。