Speaker avoids NVDA due to unpredictable long-term revenue growth compared to steady growers like MSFT/GOOG.

Guys, AMD has gone from a market capitalization of $3 billion to $1 trillion under its current CEO, who, incidentally, is a cousin of the CEO of Nvidia.

But here's the development that explains everything . Nvidia, the company that started the artificial intelligence boom , has risen by only about 21% this year. The original star is now at the bottom of the list.

This is what people are calling the second wave of the AI business , and it has left Nvidia behind. Even more surprising, Nvidia's business is still growing wildly, with revenues increasing by 106% to exceed $96 billion year-on-year.

But it was the stock that failed to keep pace with this growth. Keep this gap in mind. We will come back to that later.

Sales of data centers at AMD grew by 107% and at Nvidia by 117%.

Now, do you remember the gap that I asked you to remember earlier? Nvidia, the least performing company in this group, rose by only 21% and appears more expensive at around 25 times earnings.

But its business is still growing by more than 100% annually, and its profits are arguably more sustainable than a company that benefits from a temporary price surge . Therefore, the stock that looks cheap may be the riskiest bet, and the one that looks more expensive may be the safest.

Good. Let's move on to the next company, the long-established Nvidia company. Guys, SanDisk, Nvidia, market capitalization $5.38 trillion, enterprise value $5.4 trillion. They are very similar, with a difference of only about $30. So, essentially, this means $30 of debt.

Guys, look at the cash flow, $127 billion in the last twelve months, and $52 billion on average over the last five years . The stock is trading at 42 times its current free cash flow and 28 times its earnings.

Hey guys , look at these returns on capital. Seven, that's better than Apple and Starbucks. This is unbelievable. Look at the revenue growth: 110% annually for the last 3 years, 69% for the last 5 years, and 50% for the last 10 years. It's truly amazing.

Guys, members of our community are classifying it as a buying opportunity. Here are the eight pillars. Apart from the 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and the 5-year free cash flow rate, everything else passed the test.

Analysts' estimates still point to an upward trend, with some fluctuations along the way. They expect $9 per share in earnings by the end of January 2027, growing to $20 per share in 2031.

That's more than double over the next four years. And revenue growth of 42%, 21%, 14%, and 30%, raising their revenue from $400 billion to $1 trillion in 4 years.

So guys, I'm going to do a 10-year analysis of Nvidia. This is extremely difficult because what does the future hold? Again, that's why I avoid these companies. I look at it and say, I don't know if revenues will grow by 5% annually or 25%, or if they will decrease?

It is not like Microsoft and Google, which have steady growth, not slow growth , but steady growth all the way. First, revenue growth. I set 10%, 17.5%, and 25% as revenue growth.

For those who think 25% growth isn't much, this will raise their revenue from $400 billion this year to $3.7 trillion in 10 years. That's a very large number . That would be equivalent to 10% of the US economy today. This is the size of that number.

After that, I set a profit margin of 35%, 45%, and 55%, allowing for some lapse in the margins. Then the price-to-earnings ratio that I would assign to this company after 10 years, excellent returns on capital, a strong balance sheet, industry leadership, I set 18, 23, and 28.

Finally, the required rate of return on intrinsic value is 9.5%. Nvidia took the revenue. SanDisk took the revenue. I estimated the margins. I chose a fair multiplier and I'll get a real number of what Nvidia might be worth.

Whether it's Nvidia, SanDisk, or any of the companies you believe in , or any of the twenty chip and memory stocks currently in circulation? If the answer is no, you are not alone, and this is not really an investment. It's just guesswork and speculation.

I pressed the analyze button, and the stock is currently at 220. I have a low of 122, a high of 850, and an average of 334. So, if you believe that this company can grow its revenue by 17.5% for the next ten years with those profit margins, it's worth a bit more digging from me .