相较于MSFT、GOOG等增长稳定的公司，NVDA的长期营收增长难以预测，因此回避该股。
逐段跳播
各位，AMD 在现任 CEO 的带领下，市值已从 30 亿美元增长到 1 万亿美元，而这位 CEO 恰好是 Nvidia CEO 的表亲。
Guys, AMD has gone from a market capitalization of $3 billion to $1 trillion under its current CEO, who, incidentally, is a cousin of the CEO of Nvidia.
但下面这个进展能解释一切。Nvidia，这家开启人工智能热潮的公司，今年只上涨了约 21%。昔日的明星如今排在榜单末尾。这就是人们所说的 AI 业务的第二波浪潮，而它把 Nvidia 甩在了后面。
更令人意外的是，Nvidia 的业务仍在疯狂增长，营收同比增长 106%，超过 960 亿美元。但股价却没能跟上这一增长。记住这个差距，我们稍后会回到这一点。
But here's the development that explains everything . Nvidia, the company that started the artificial intelligence boom , has risen by only about 21% this year. The original star is now at the bottom of the list.
This is what people are calling the second wave of the AI business , and it has left Nvidia behind. Even more surprising, Nvidia's business is still growing wildly, with revenues increasing by 106% to exceed $96 billion year-on-year.
But it was the stock that failed to keep pace with this growth. Keep this gap in mind. We will come back to that later.
AMD 的数据中心销售额增长了 107%，Nvidia 增长了 117%。
Sales of data centers at AMD grew by 107% and at Nvidia by 117%.
现在，你还记得我之前让你记住的那个差距吗？Nvidia，这一组中表现最差的公司，只上涨了 21%，而且看起来更贵，市盈率约为 25 倍。但它的业务仍以每年超过 100% 的速度增长，而且其利润可以说比一家受益于暂时性价格飙升的公司更具可持续性。
因此，看起来便宜的那只股票可能是风险最高的押注，而看起来更贵的那只可能是最安全的。
Now, do you remember the gap that I asked you to remember earlier? Nvidia, the least performing company in this group, rose by only 21% and appears more expensive at around 25 times earnings.
But its business is still growing by more than 100% annually, and its profits are arguably more sustainable than a company that benefits from a temporary price surge . Therefore, the stock that looks cheap may be the riskiest bet, and the one that looks more expensive may be the safest.
好。我们来看下一家公司，历史悠久的 Nvidia 公司。各位，SanDisk、Nvidia，市值 5.38 万亿美元，企业价值 5.4 万亿美元。两者非常接近，只差约 30 美元。所以，本质上这意味着 30 美元的债务。
Good. Let's move on to the next company, the long-established Nvidia company. Guys, SanDisk, Nvidia, market capitalization $5.38 trillion, enterprise value $5.4 trillion. They are very similar, with a difference of only about $30. So, essentially, this means $30 of debt.
各位，看看现金流，过去十二个月为 1270 亿美元，过去五年平均为 520 亿美元。该股目前的交易价格是其当前自由现金流的 42 倍，是其盈利的 28 倍。
Guys, look at the cash flow, $127 billion in the last twelve months, and $52 billion on average over the last five years . The stock is trading at 42 times its current free cash flow and 28 times its earnings.
各位，看看这些资本回报率。七，这比 Apple 和 Starbucks 还要好。这简直难以置信。看看营收增长：过去 3 年每年 110%，过去 5 年 69%，过去 10 年 50%。这确实令人惊叹。
Hey guys , look at these returns on capital. Seven, that's better than Apple and Starbucks. This is unbelievable. Look at the revenue growth: 110% annually for the last 3 years, 69% for the last 5 years, and 50% for the last 10 years. It's truly amazing.
各位，我们社区的成员将其归类为买入机会。以下是八大支柱。除了 5 年市盈率和 5 年自由现金流率之外，其他一切都通过了测试。
Guys, members of our community are classifying it as a buying opportunity. Here are the eight pillars. Apart from the 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and the 5-year free cash flow rate, everything else passed the test.
分析师的预测仍指向上升趋势，期间会有一些波动。他们预计到 2027 年 1 月底每股收益为 9 美元，到 2031 年增长到每股 20 美元。这意味着未来四年将增长一倍以上。营收增长分别为 42%、21%、14% 和 30%，使其营收在 4 年内从 4000 亿美元提高到 1 万亿美元。
Analysts' estimates still point to an upward trend, with some fluctuations along the way. They expect $9 per share in earnings by the end of January 2027, growing to $20 per share in 2031.
That's more than double over the next four years. And revenue growth of 42%, 21%, 14%, and 30%, raising their revenue from $400 billion to $1 trillion in 4 years.
所以各位，我要对 Nvidia 做一个 10 年分析。这极其困难，因为未来会怎样？再说一次，这就是我避开这些公司的原因。我看着它说，我不知道营收会每年增长 5% 还是 25%，或者会不会下降？
So guys, I'm going to do a 10-year analysis of Nvidia. This is extremely difficult because what does the future hold? Again, that's why I avoid these companies. I look at it and say, I don't know if revenues will grow by 5% annually or 25%, or if they will decrease?
它不像 Microsoft 和 Google，它们有稳定的增长，不是缓慢增长，而是一路稳定增长。首先是营收增长。我把营收增长设定为 10%、17.5% 和 25%。对于那些认为 25% 增长不算多的人，这将使其营收从今年的 4000 亿美元提高到 10 年后的 3.7 万亿美元。
这是一个非常大的数字。这相当于今天美国经济的 10%。这个数字的规模就是这么大。
It is not like Microsoft and Google, which have steady growth, not slow growth , but steady growth all the way. First, revenue growth. I set 10%, 17.5%, and 25% as revenue growth.
For those who think 25% growth isn't much, this will raise their revenue from $400 billion this year to $3.7 trillion in 10 years. That's a very large number . That would be equivalent to 10% of the US economy today. This is the size of that number.
之后，我设定了 35%、45% 和 55% 的利润率，允许利润率出现一些下滑。然后是我会给这家公司 10 年后设定的市盈率，出色的资本回报率、强劲的资产负债表、行业领导地位，我设定了 18、23 和 28。
After that, I set a profit margin of 35%, 45%, and 55%, allowing for some lapse in the margins. Then the price-to-earnings ratio that I would assign to this company after 10 years, excellent returns on capital, a strong balance sheet, industry leadership, I set 18, 23, and 28.
最后，内在价值所要求的回报率为 9.5%。Nvidia 取了营收。SanDisk 取了营收。我估算了利润率。我选择了一个合理的倍数，然后我会得出 Nvidia 可能值多少的真实数字。
Finally, the required rate of return on intrinsic value is 9.5%. Nvidia took the revenue. SanDisk took the revenue. I estimated the margins. I chose a fair multiplier and I'll get a real number of what Nvidia might be worth.
无论是 Nvidia、SanDisk，还是你相信的任何一家公司，或者目前市面上流通的二十只芯片和存储股票中的任何一只？如果答案是否定的，你并不孤单，而这并不是真正的投资。这只是猜测和投机。
Whether it's Nvidia, SanDisk, or any of the companies you believe in , or any of the twenty chip and memory stocks currently in circulation? If the answer is no, you are not alone, and this is not really an investment. It's just guesswork and speculation.
我按下了分析按钮，该股目前为 220。低点为 122，高点为 850，平均为 334。所以，如果你相信这家公司能在未来十年以这样的利润率实现17.5%的营收增长，那就值得我再多做一些挖掘。
I pressed the analyze button, and the stock is currently at 220. I have a low of 122, a high of 850, and an average of 334. So, if you believe that this company can grow its revenue by 17.5% for the next ten years with those profit margins, it's worth a bit more digging from me .
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。