NVDA bull thesis: consolidation near ATHs suggests upside breakout past 240 resistance to target 245; supported by cheap options (IV rank 0%) and technical setup.

All right, so I'm looking at Nvidia. Ticker is NVDA. And with that price action up here just today kissed the all-time high, but wasn't able to push past it. With that though, we're getting really close.

And we're looking like we're with these higher lows here, it looks like we're going to we're continuing to consolidate for another move higher.

So now with this, I'm drawing some tech some technical analysis to try and find out where Nvidia is going to find resistance in its price discovery should it continue to push up and make new all-time highs.

and this is from this June 20th 2020 24 pivot high right here and it's going across it hits the top of these two pivots here in the middle of November and then with that we're continuing we hit that tops here as well come May and July we pierced it a little bit past that but it pierces okay we reclaim the next day and did not confirm this strengthens my trend line for resistance

As this is continuing further, this trend line, this white part right here is coming in and this would test Nvidia at 245. Should have continued to push to the upside.

Now, with that, I love using Fibonacci retracement levels. Okay. This gives us natural reoccurring. This gives us natural support and resistance levels. And so we're just starting from this 8662 low here.

We're seeing price kind of come up to this red. We halt and then we get up higher. We now I'm looking at this yellow uh line right here. We're pushing up into this and now we're just sitting on this yellow line and then we continue to push up.

I'm not going to I just want you to kind of look at that as we continue to go up on these charts. So look here on the blue from the dark blue to the light blue. We're kind of going back and forth between the two.

So these levels are already acting as support and resistance levels as well.

So with this I'm doing a Fibonacci extension. This would be the Fibonacci 113 to the upside. This is coming in at 254.97. So with that, I have this parallel channel from this July 29th, 2026 low.

And as we see here, I want to make sure these trend lines have three hits on each side. This one has two. Then right here, we broke below it, but then we reclaimed it quickly. Three, four, five, six.

This is a strong bottom parallel channel for this one. And if we look at the top right here, too. So, I know it's kind of hard to see, guys, but at 220 223, uh, this trend line also has several hits, too.

Now, you also could even use this parallel channel, the midline, this dash line could also be acting as support and resistance. So, we have three trend lines with this.

The middle of this parallel channel, X marks the spots, that's coming in at 245 as well. So right now 245 is kind of my main kind of wall where I'm not sure if Nvidia is going to go past it.

Sure. We have another target up here at 250497. That's extra resistance.

why don't I just buy 100 shares of Nvidia? Okay. Well, Tabby, how much is 23 236 time 100 roughly? That's how much if you bought 100 shares of Nvidia outright.

So, right now, Nvidia, the underlying is at 23683 trading right now intraday market. Say the strike price was at 235 right now. If Nvidia is at 236 since we're crossing that we are in the money.

So, now I have the Nvidia chain popped up.

Um so right now I'm looking at the October 16th, 2016 uh chain for Nvidia. This is 11 days out.

Then we're looking at these strikes here. These are kind of those targets that I was saying where right now, so right now, Nvidia is at 236.84. So based on this 235 strike, guys, is this in the money or out of the money?

For that 236 would be in the money. Correct. Yes. Nice job. Because the underlying is above the strike price. So we are in the money.

What about the 240 strike? Are we in the money or out of the money? Let's see. The 240. Oh, we are totally in the money. Um, right. Because if we were at 235, then going to 240.

So, we're not in an option contract yet. So, slow down. It's okay, guys. It's all right, guys. So, we'd be out of the money. Correct. Yes. So, that's because Nvidia is not past 240 yet.

If we do find a setup and Nvidia gets past 240, then yes, then we're in the money. Then we're in the money. I really want to find a call contract for this Nvidia playout. Yes, it's kind of consolidating near this all-time high.

We have resistance levels to the upside. I think we find an options contract and we could take advantage of this kind of breakout.

So, one, this is just z this is the zero day option for today. There's a huge huge wall right here. There's 227,000 new contracts in today at this 237.5 strike. And there's another 160,000 people at the 240.

This is a big wall. Now, just this because there's a big bullish wall this or a big wall on of calls. This doesn't mean bullish. This could be sellers. Every push into this level is getting sold into.

So I want you to though, you can think of this wall kind of as resistance. Once this resistance is hammered on and enough volume gets through it, that is when it could break. And now we'll look to our resistance levels to the upside.

as I said, I'm not looking at a weekly though, but I wanted you guys to really get down that huge wall that we're looking at right now in Nvidia. So, I'm looking at this 11 days out contract.

I'm looking at a strike between 240 and 245 right now cuz based on my charting, you know, we had a multiffactor setup at the 245. Why am I just going to go on a limb get a cheap lottery ticket for one at 260 254?

That's not my thesis. No. So, I don't have fear missing out. I don't chase. I stick to the game.

So, with that, I don't like 11 days out though. I really want my trade to have a little more time to breathe. So, I'm looking at this November 20th 26 chain right here.

The bid right here at or excuse me, with the bid and ask right here at 8.25 to 835, I'd roughly play pay830 for this contract. Oh, and that's times 100. So about 830 bucks. That's still cheaper than buying it outright. $23,000. Yeah, much cheaper.

Um, this has a delta of 0.426. I really like this exposure sensitivity should price change and volume is confirming. Um, and there's it has plenty of liquidity for this contract. Now, this would be a 245 strike.

And with that, IV rank is sitting at 0%. but with that, pretty much what I'm saying is Nvidia calls are the cheapest they've ever been this year.

So, Tabby, you thinking what I'm thinking? Yeah, I say we take it. I say we take it. Let's get it, guys. We have the 245 strike on Nvidia a call and that's it.

All right, so we are going with a yes for this trade on Nvidia for November 20th is our time frame for about $245 is is the price that we're try aiming for and we only have to pay 860 bucks per that contract instead of that 23,000.

Um so the chart was showing pressing record highs. That's why we are going for this. And again, our targets were 245, 255, but we landed on that 245. And we learned about that put call ratio and how a call is a bullish move.

And Ivy has been cheapest all year for this, which is insane.

That's our confirmation. Yes. And then let's see. The bet is when the dam breaks the price discovery to 245. And the dam is that 240 wall of a huge contract. But as we see, once they eventually get broke, once these walls are kind of hit on several times, they do end up breaking to the upside.