Nvidia is a long-term bull case despite its size: revenue $96.2 billion rose 106% y/y, guided around $108 billion next few quarters; AI infrastructure spending is rising, demand exceeds supply, Rubin adds a product cycle, and Nvidia is more stable than other AI stocks. Price target $280 in a year and $245 by January.
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I'm going to use Nvidia because it's a consistently profitable company, and while it doesn't have that attractive growth expectation anymore, I have no problem with that.
The reason I agree with this is that I will share my screen to show with an example that even if Nvidia's price increases slightly, the 'Pure Man's Covered Call' strategy can be very powerful and advantageous for investors , especially since it does not have much of a drawdown risk for Nvidia.
So, what I want to do is combine Nvidia and the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy, and I'll share that specific trade. But first, let's discuss in detail why Nvidia and I are using it, because it's important.
Nvidia has already reached a market cap of $5 billion, right ? Let me share my screen and show you this. This is Nvidia stock.
I have a lot of Nvidia shares in my retirement account, but I'm planning to open a new position in this specific account today that I'll show you. Look below , because you can see that the market cap is $5.64 trillion.
It is literally approaching a total market cap of $6 trillion.
So, the company has already grown a lot. However, despite Nvidia's enormous size, its growth is truly remarkable. In fact, revenue for the latest quarter was $96.2 billion, up 106% from the previous year, where data center revenue reached $89 billion. This is 117% more than the previous year.
Nvidia has forecast revenue of around $108 billion for the next few quarters.
Yes, the stock has gone up a lot, but I still see spending in the AI sector increasing, and that's why I'm fairly bullish on Nvidia. However, Nvidia said that the top five hyperscaler companies are expected to spend about $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027.
AWS plans to deploy an additional 2 million Nvidia GPUs on their infrastructure by 2027-2028. This is real evidence that hyperscalers are anticipating massive demand for computing in the future.
So, to me, Nvidia meets the most important conditions for a 'Pure Man's Covered Call'.
I actually want long-term bullish exposure to the company. Income has doubled compared to the previous year. Spending on AI infrastructure is still growing rapidly. Supply is limited compared to demand, and Rubin is giving Nvidia another big product cycle.
However, instead of investing capital for 100 shares, I will use a deep-in-the-money put call option because I think it is much more attractive.
I will first show you technical analysis. I'll show you where Nvidia is trading now. This chart shows Nvidia's position over the last 6 months.
And originally, the stock was like $189, well below $20. And you can see that over any period of time, Nvidia is a consistent growth stock. I like to call it that.
The stock price is rising. That is, it is indeed a very attractive stock. And whenever it does go down , it's not as steep a drop as other AI stocks, because every AI stock can suffer a very large drop.
I would say Nvidia is a little different because it is at the top of the market with a market cap of $5.6 trillion. Friends, we will not see such a big landslide.
And this is why I am using the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy with Nvidia, because Nvidia is much more stable for this type of strategy. So look, Nvidia is currently at $229 per share.
I just want to zoom out quickly. I'm going to go with a 1-year chart. I just want you to understand what this stock looks like for 1 year. So you see, Nvidia basically went from 180 to 230. That is $50 more.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future performance, right? I am not a financial advisor or anything like that. However, let's say that if Nvidia continues to do what they do in the future, which I think they will, the stock price could go up another $50.
So, instead of 230, after 1 year it will be around $280 per share. So, this will be the basis of my 'Poor Man's Covered Call'. Okay?
So, let's go to Nvidia. I'm going to trade Nvidia options.
And the first position we need to start with is a leap option. This is exactly what I'm doing in my Lips Challenge. I opened VSC, opened AAOI, and did some other trades. Nvidia wasn't among them, but today I plan to include it.
And the other positions that I've opened, I think we already have six or seven positions. I plan to sell covered calls on those leap options. So, the Lips Challenge is going to be very interesting and exciting.
However, let's move on to the first leap option. So, I want a term that will be around 1 year. September 17, 2027 is absolutely correct. It's a little less than 1 year old , but yes, good enough.
So, I'm going to buy a call option. And again, whenever I make a 'Pur Man's Covered Call', for me, I want something that's deep in the money. A deep in the money leap option is great.
It costs a little more than the out-of-the-money option.
For example, out-of-the-money is, you know, 245. It's out-of-the -money. This, you know, is currently above Nvidia's current price. Okay? Its premium is $30.90. But, going into the money, right?
It will be a little more expensive. Still very profitable. I'm explaining why. So, let's open this 200 option.
I just want to make sure that Delta is compatible with my needs. And yes, the delta is 0.74, which is very good. So, I want a delta of about 0.7.
Delta is basically how much the option moves per dollar of change in the stock, right ? So, if the stock increases by $1 , with a delta of 0.74, the option price will increase by 74 cents on the dollar. This is how Delta works.
There is another definition of delta, and that is the probability that this option will expire in the money. But, yes, you can see 74 deltas. Therefore, there is a 74% chance that Nvidia's price will be $200 or higher at the end of the September 17th period.
I actually think this delta is misrepresenting Nvidia a bit , because in the long term, especially when you look at S&P 500 or Mag 7 stocks, they generally have the potential to go up.
This is how the stock market usually works. It usually goes upwards. So, in my opinion, this 74% probability delta is quite low. Okay? So , I wo n't look too much at delta for the second definition I gave, which is its probability of being in the money. In the long run, this can be a bit confusing.
So, I personally think the probability of Nvidia being 200 or higher is 95% or more.
Anyway, check it out. 200 buy call, right ? It originally cost $5,400 , which is a lot better than buying 100 shares of Nvidia, which would have cost $23,000. Okay?
So, here it is only $5,400. This is like our first step. Our second step is actually quite simple. This will be the same as a normal covered call. So, you can basically think of this LEAP option as an alternative to shares. That's literally it.
So, you are actually replacing the stock because its delta is higher. So, whenever the stock price increases by $10, the price of this leap option increases by $7.50. Okay?
This is really quite surprising, because a $10 increase in Nvidia's price means a 5% increase in shares, right? Or even less. This is a little over 4 percent. So, that's a 4.8% increase for the stock , which could honestly happen in a day or two, maybe a week, or any time, right ?
Obviously, this can happen quickly in a bull market. Anyway, back to the main point. See what happens to the leap option if the stock increases by 4.8% or 5%. The leap option here is $54.
If the stock price increases by $10, the option will increase by $7.50.
I'm doing the simple math, but a $7.50 increase on a $54 option is 15% , because 10% of 54 is $5.40. $7.50 is one and a half times that. So, if Nvidia goes up less than 5%, I'm getting a 15% profit in this example.
This shows you that the leap option is a leveraged instrument. Okay? It is leveraged because you are investing less capital , and although the option does not move as much as the stock because it is a very small fraction of the stock price, even small changes in the stock have a large impact because the leap option is a much smaller fraction.
Isn't that right ? So, that's the power of Leap Options.
Everything is great, right ? We can all see the pay-off chart here, right? So, your break-even price is around $254, which is basically the sum of the strike price and the premium you paid.
Now the question is, how can we reduce this break-even price ? How can we generate income ? We just need to go to the 'Sell Call' option and I will sell a call that has a shorter expiration.
The main purpose of this short term is so that I can earn some income in the short term.
So, I will choose the date January 15, 2027, which is only 90 days away. Excellent. And what I will do is , I will choose the 'out of the money' option. Initially, I liked $245 because there was a good spread of $10.
The delta is a little high, but I do n't have a problem with that. Let me show you why I don't have a problem with that.
Look, I'm going to sell the call for $245, which is $15 more than the current price, and I'm selling it right now. Its delta is high and I'm explaining to you why that's okay.
So, look here. You can see the chart. I'm actually zooming in here , okay? The thing is, the $245 call option I'm selling is the upper limit of Nvidia, beyond which my profit will start to decrease.
Now, as you can see here, there is still a green line. So, even if Nvidia's price increases, I'm making money, but my expected profit will decrease slightly.
But as you can see here, even if Nvidia is $260 or higher, I will still be making a good profit. So, this is a bullish strategy and I do n't need the price of my stock to skyrocket.
This aspect of the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy is what I like , because let's say I'm fairly bullish on Nvidia. I think it will reach from $245 to $280 in a year.
This strategy brings that one-year perspective up to January. So I think, " Nvidia's price will increase a little." This is my main foundation. That's probably what's going to happen, right ?
This is what Nvidia Mag Seven stock usually does. Its price increases regularly, or when the income statement is released , the price may increase significantly. Or in the case of Nvidia, the price could even go down.
However, in a general sense, according to the 1-year time frame stock chart, 280 is my price target, right ? So, for a short period of time, let's say until January, I think Nvidia could go up to 245.
So, if the price of Nvidia stays the same, I will make a profit because the value of the short call I sold will decrease and bring me that full amount.
If Nvidia's price increases a little , that would be great. I will earn more money then. My expected profit will continue to increase until 245.
As long as I stay within this range , which is the range I expect Nvidia to trade within, it will be an attractive trade. So, that's exactly what I plan to do with Nvidia , but I have some other stocks that are more attractive than Nvidia, because they have higher volatility, and of course higher volatility means I can collect more premium when I sell the call options.
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