尽管体量庞大,Nvidia 仍是长期看涨标的:营收 962 亿美元,同比增长 106%,未来几个季度指引约为 1080 亿美元;AI 基础设施支出持续上升,需求超过供给,Rubin 带来新一轮产品周期,且 Nvidia 比其他 AI 股票更稳健。目标价一年内 280 美元,1 月前 245 美元。
逐段跳播
我打算选择 Nvidia,因为它是一家持续盈利的公司,虽然它已经不再具备那种诱人的增长预期,但这一点我完全没问题。
I'm going to use Nvidia because it's a consistently profitable company, and while it doesn't have that attractive growth expectation anymore, I have no problem with that.
我之所以认同这一点,是因为我会共享屏幕,用一个例子来说明:即使 Nvidia 的股价只是小幅上涨,“穷人备兑看涨期权”策略对投资者来说也可能非常强大且有利,尤其是因为 Nvidia 的下行回撤风险并不大。
The reason I agree with this is that I will share my screen to show with an example that even if Nvidia's price increases slightly, the 'Pure Man's Covered Call' strategy can be very powerful and advantageous for investors , especially since it does not have much of a drawdown risk for Nvidia.
所以,我想做的是把 Nvidia 和“穷人备兑看涨期权”策略结合起来,我会分享这笔具体的交易。但首先,让我们详细讨论一下为什么选择 Nvidia、以及我为什么使用它,因为这很重要。
So, what I want to do is combine Nvidia and the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy, and I'll share that specific trade. But first, let's discuss in detail why Nvidia and I are using it, because it's important.
Nvidia 的市值已经达到 50 亿美元了,对吧?让我共享屏幕给你们看看。这就是 Nvidia 的股票。
Nvidia has already reached a market cap of $5 billion, right ? Let me share my screen and show you this. This is Nvidia stock.
我的退休账户里持有大量 Nvidia 股票,但我打算今天在这个我会展示给你的特定账户里开一个新仓位。看下面,因为你可以看到市值是 5.64 万亿美元。它确实正在逼近 6 万亿美元的总市值。
I have a lot of Nvidia shares in my retirement account, but I'm planning to open a new position in this specific account today that I'll show you. Look below , because you can see that the market cap is $5.64 trillion.
It is literally approaching a total market cap of $6 trillion.
所以,这家公司已经增长了很多。然而,尽管 Nvidia 体量巨大,它的增长确实非常惊人。事实上,最近一个季度的营收为 962 亿美元,同比增长 106%,其中数据中心营收达到 890 亿美元。这比上年增长了 117%。
So, the company has already grown a lot. However, despite Nvidia's enormous size, its growth is truly remarkable. In fact, revenue for the latest quarter was $96.2 billion, up 106% from the previous year, where data center revenue reached $89 billion. This is 117% more than the previous year.
Nvidia 预计未来几个季度的营收约为 1080 亿美元。
Nvidia has forecast revenue of around $108 billion for the next few quarters.
是的,这只股票已经涨了很多,但我仍然看到 AI 领域的支出在增加,这就是为什么我相当看好 Nvidia。不过,Nvidia 表示,前五大超大规模云服务商预计将在 2026 年支出约 8000 亿美元,2027 年支出约 1.3 万亿美元。
Yes, the stock has gone up a lot, but I still see spending in the AI sector increasing, and that's why I'm fairly bullish on Nvidia. However, Nvidia said that the top five hyperscaler companies are expected to spend about $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027.
AWS 计划在 2027 至 2028 年前,在其基础设施上额外部署 200 万块 Nvidia GPU。这是实实在在的证据,表明超大规模云服务商预期未来对算力有巨大的需求。
AWS plans to deploy an additional 2 million Nvidia GPUs on their infrastructure by 2027-2028. This is real evidence that hyperscalers are anticipating massive demand for computing in the future.
所以,在我看来,Nvidia 满足“穷人备兑看涨期权”最重要的条件。
So, to me, Nvidia meets the most important conditions for a 'Pure Man's Covered Call'.
我实际上想要对这家公司建立长期看涨的敞口。收益比上年翻了一番。AI 基础设施方面的支出仍在快速增长。供给相对于需求是有限的,而 Rubin 又给 Nvidia 带来了另一个重要的产品周期。
I actually want long-term bullish exposure to the company. Income has doubled compared to the previous year. Spending on AI infrastructure is still growing rapidly. Supply is limited compared to demand, and Rubin is giving Nvidia another big product cycle.
不过,我不会投入资金去买 100 股,而是会使用深度实值的看跌期权,因为我认为它要有吸引力得多。
However, instead of investing capital for 100 shares, I will use a deep-in-the-money put call option because I think it is much more attractive.
我先给大家看技术分析。我会展示 Nvidia 现在的交易位置。这张图展示了 Nvidia 在过去 6 个月的位置。
I will first show you technical analysis. I'll show you where Nvidia is trading now. This chart shows Nvidia's position over the last 6 months.
最初,这只股票大概是 189 美元,远低于 20 美元。你可以看到,在任何一段时间里,Nvidia 都是一只持续成长的股票。我喜欢这么称呼它。
And originally, the stock was like $189, well below $20. And you can see that over any period of time, Nvidia is a consistent growth stock. I like to call it that.
股价在上涨。也就是说,它确实是一只非常有吸引力的股票。每当它下跌时,跌幅都不像其他 AI 股票那么陡,因为每只 AI 股票都可能遭遇非常大的下跌。
The stock price is rising. That is, it is indeed a very attractive stock. And whenever it does go down , it's not as steep a drop as other AI stocks, because every AI stock can suffer a very large drop.
我想说 Nvidia 有点不同,因为它以 5.6 万亿美元的市值处于市场顶端。朋友们,我们不会看到这么大的滑坡。
I would say Nvidia is a little different because it is at the top of the market with a market cap of $5.6 trillion. Friends, we will not see such a big landslide.
这就是为什么我在 Nvidia 上使用“穷人备兑看涨期权”策略,因为 Nvidia 对这类策略来说稳定得多。所以你看,Nvidia 目前每股 229 美元。
And this is why I am using the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy with Nvidia, because Nvidia is much more stable for this type of strategy. So look, Nvidia is currently at $229 per share.
我只想快速拉远看一下。我要用 1 年期的图表。我只想让你了解这只股票 1 年来的样子。所以你看,Nvidia 基本上从 180 涨到了 230。也就是多了 50 美元。
I just want to zoom out quickly. I'm going to go with a 1-year chart. I just want you to understand what this stock looks like for 1 year. So you see, Nvidia basically went from 180 to 230. That is $50 more.
当然,过去的表现并不保证未来的表现,对吧?我不是财务顾问或类似的人。不过,假设 Nvidia 未来继续做它们在做的事,我认为它们会的,那么股价可能再涨 50 美元。
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future performance, right? I am not a financial advisor or anything like that. However, let's say that if Nvidia continues to do what they do in the future, which I think they will, the stock price could go up another $50.
所以,1 年后它不会是 230,而会在每股 280 美元左右。所以,这将是我“穷人备兑看涨期权”的基础。好吗?
So, instead of 230, after 1 year it will be around $280 per share. So, this will be the basis of my 'Poor Man's Covered Call'. Okay?
那么,我们来看 Nvidia。我要交易 Nvidia 期权。
So, let's go to Nvidia. I'm going to trade Nvidia options.
我们需要建立的第一个仓位是 LEAP 期权。这正是我在 Lips Challenge 里做的。我开了 VSC,开了 AAOI,还做了其他一些交易。Nvidia 不在其中,但今天我打算把它加进来。
And the first position we need to start with is a leap option. This is exactly what I'm doing in my Lips Challenge. I opened VSC, opened AAOI, and did some other trades. Nvidia wasn't among them, but today I plan to include it.
至于我已经开的其他仓位,我想我们已经有六七个仓位了。我打算对那些 LEAP 期权卖出备兑看涨期权。所以,Lips Challenge 会非常有趣和令人兴奋。
And the other positions that I've opened, I think we already have six or seven positions. I plan to sell covered calls on those leap options. So, the Lips Challenge is going to be very interesting and exciting.
不过,我们来看第一个 LEAP 期权。我想要一个大约 1 年期的。2027 年 9 月 17 日完全正确。它不到 1 年,但没错,够好了。
However, let's move on to the first leap option. So, I want a term that will be around 1 year. September 17, 2027 is absolutely correct. It's a little less than 1 year old , but yes, good enough.
所以,我要买入一份看涨期权。再说一次,每当我做“穷人的备兑看涨期权”时,对我来说,我想要的是深度实值的期权。深度实值的LEAP期权就很好。它比虚值期权贵一点。
So, I'm going to buy a call option. And again, whenever I make a 'Pur Man's Covered Call', for me, I want something that's deep in the money. A deep in the money leap option is great.
It costs a little more than the out-of-the-money option.
比如,虚值就是245。它是虚值的。这个目前高于Nvidia的当前价格。对吧?它的权利金是30.90美元。但是,往实值走,对吧?它会稍微贵一点。仍然非常有利可图。我在解释为什么。那么,我们来开这个200的期权。
For example, out-of-the-money is, you know, 245. It's out-of-the -money. This, you know, is currently above Nvidia's current price. Okay? Its premium is $30.90. But, going into the money, right?
It will be a little more expensive. Still very profitable. I'm explaining why. So, let's open this 200 option.
我只是想确认Delta符合我的需求。是的,delta是0.74,这非常好。所以,我想要大约0.7的delta。
I just want to make sure that Delta is compatible with my needs. And yes, the delta is 0.74, which is very good. So, I want a delta of about 0.7.
Delta基本上就是股票每变动一美元,期权变动多少,对吧?所以,如果股票上涨1美元,在delta为0.74的情况下,期权价格将上涨74美分。这就是Delta的运作方式。
Delta is basically how much the option moves per dollar of change in the stock, right ? So, if the stock increases by $1 , with a delta of 0.74, the option price will increase by 74 cents on the dollar. This is how Delta works.
Delta还有另一个定义,就是这个期权到期时处于实值的概率。但是,是的,你可以看到74的delta。因此,在9月17日这个周期结束时,Nvidia的价格有74%的概率达到200美元或更高。
There is another definition of delta, and that is the probability that this option will expire in the money. But, yes, you can see 74 deltas. Therefore, there is a 74% chance that Nvidia's price will be $200 or higher at the end of the September 17th period.
我其实觉得这个delta有点低估了Nvidia,因为从长期来看,尤其是看标普500或Mag 7的股票时,它们通常都有上涨的潜力。
I actually think this delta is misrepresenting Nvidia a bit , because in the long term, especially when you look at S&P 500 or Mag 7 stocks, they generally have the potential to go up.
股市通常就是这样运作的。它通常是向上的。所以,在我看来,这个74%概率的delta相当低。对吧?所以,对于我给出的第二个定义,也就是它处于实值的概率,我不会太看重delta。从长远来看,这可能会有点令人困惑。
This is how the stock market usually works. It usually goes upwards. So, in my opinion, this 74% probability delta is quite low. Okay? So , I wo n't look too much at delta for the second definition I gave, which is its probability of being in the money. In the long run, this can be a bit confusing.
所以,我个人认为Nvidia达到200或更高的概率是95%或更高。
So, I personally think the probability of Nvidia being 200 or higher is 95% or more.
总之,看看吧。200的买入看涨期权,对吧?它原本要花5,400美元,这比买入100股Nvidia要好得多,后者要花23,000美元。对吧?
Anyway, check it out. 200 buy call, right ? It originally cost $5,400 , which is a lot better than buying 100 shares of Nvidia, which would have cost $23,000. Okay?
所以,这里只要5,400美元。这就像我们的第一步。我们的第二步其实相当简单。这将和普通的备兑看涨期权一样。所以,你基本上可以把这份LEAP期权看作是股票的替代品。就是这样。
So, here it is only $5,400. This is like our first step. Our second step is actually quite simple. This will be the same as a normal covered call. So, you can basically think of this LEAP option as an alternative to shares. That's literally it.
所以,你实际上是在用期权替代股票,因为它的delta更高。所以,每当股价上涨10美元,这份LEAP期权的价格就上涨7.50美元。对吧?
So, you are actually replacing the stock because its delta is higher. So, whenever the stock price increases by $10, the price of this leap option increases by $7.50. Okay?
这真的相当令人惊讶,因为Nvidia价格上涨10美元意味着股票上涨5%,对吧?或者甚至更少。这是略高于4%。所以,这对股票来说是4.8%的涨幅,说实话,这可能在一两天内发生,也许一周,或者任何时候,对吧?
This is really quite surprising, because a $10 increase in Nvidia's price means a 5% increase in shares, right? Or even less. This is a little over 4 percent. So, that's a 4.8% increase for the stock , which could honestly happen in a day or two, maybe a week, or any time, right ?
显然,在牛市中这可能很快发生。总之,回到重点。看看如果股票上涨4.8%或5%,这份LEAP期权会怎样。这里的LEAP期权是54美元。如果股价上涨10美元,期权将上涨7.50美元。
Obviously, this can happen quickly in a bull market. Anyway, back to the main point. See what happens to the leap option if the stock increases by 4.8% or 5%. The leap option here is $54.
If the stock price increases by $10, the option will increase by $7.50.
我在做简单的算术,但一份54美元的期权上涨7.50美元就是15%,因为54的10%是5.40美元。7.50美元是它的1.5倍。所以,如果Nvidia上涨不到5%,在这个例子里我就获得15%的利润。
I'm doing the simple math, but a $7.50 increase on a $54 option is 15% , because 10% of 54 is $5.40. $7.50 is one and a half times that. So, if Nvidia goes up less than 5%, I'm getting a 15% profit in this example.
这向你表明,LEAP期权是一种杠杆工具。对吧?它是杠杆的,因为你投入的资本更少,而且虽然期权因为只占股价很小一部分而不像股票那样变动那么多,但股票的微小变化也会产生很大影响,因为LEAP期权占的比例小得多。对吧?所以,这就是LEAP期权的威力。
This shows you that the leap option is a leveraged instrument. Okay? It is leveraged because you are investing less capital , and although the option does not move as much as the stock because it is a very small fraction of the stock price, even small changes in the stock have a large impact because the leap option is a much smaller fraction.
Isn't that right ? So, that's the power of Leap Options.
一切都很好,对吧?我们都能看到这里的收益图,对吧?所以,你的盈亏平衡价格大约在254美元,这基本上就是行权价加上你支付的权利金之和。
Everything is great, right ? We can all see the pay-off chart here, right? So, your break-even price is around $254, which is basically the sum of the strike price and the premium you paid.
现在的问题是,我们怎样才能降低这个盈亏平衡价格?我们怎样才能产生收益?我们只需要进入“卖出看涨期权”选项,我会卖出一份到期日更短的看涨期权。这个短期的主要目的就是让我能在短期内赚取一些收益。
Now the question is, how can we reduce this break-even price ? How can we generate income ? We just need to go to the 'Sell Call' option and I will sell a call that has a shorter expiration.
The main purpose of this short term is so that I can earn some income in the short term.
所以,我会选择2027年1月15日这个日期,只有90天了。太好了。我要做的是,我会选择虚值期权。起初,我喜欢245美元,因为有一个不错的10美元价差。delta有点高,但我对此没有意见。让我向你展示为什么我对此没有意见。
So, I will choose the date January 15, 2027, which is only 90 days away. Excellent. And what I will do is , I will choose the 'out of the money' option. Initially, I liked $245 because there was a good spread of $10.
The delta is a little high, but I do n't have a problem with that. Let me show you why I don't have a problem with that.
听着,我要卖出245美元的看涨期权,这比当前价格高出15美元,我现在就卖。它的delta很高,我来跟你解释为什么这没问题。
Look, I'm going to sell the call for $245, which is $15 more than the current price, and I'm selling it right now. Its delta is high and I'm explaining to you why that's okay.
那么,看这里。你能看到这张图。我在这里放大一下。问题是,我卖出的这张245美元的看涨期权是Nvidia的上限,超过这个价格,我的利润就会开始减少。
So, look here. You can see the chart. I'm actually zooming in here , okay? The thing is, the $245 call option I'm selling is the upper limit of Nvidia, beyond which my profit will start to decrease.
现在,如你所见,这里还有一条绿线。所以,即使Nvidia的价格上涨,我仍然在赚钱,只是我的预期利润会略微减少。
Now, as you can see here, there is still a green line. So, even if Nvidia's price increases, I'm making money, but my expected profit will decrease slightly.
但如你所见,即使Nvidia涨到260美元甚至更高,我仍然能赚到不错的利润。所以,这是一个看涨策略,我并不需要我的股票价格暴涨。这正是我喜欢“穷人备兑看涨期权”策略的这一点,因为假设我对Nvidia相当看涨,我认为它会在一年内从245美元涨到280美元。
But as you can see here, even if Nvidia is $260 or higher, I will still be making a good profit. So, this is a bullish strategy and I do n't need the price of my stock to skyrocket.
This aspect of the 'Poor Man's Covered Call' strategy is what I like , because let's say I'm fairly bullish on Nvidia. I think it will reach from $245 to $280 in a year.
这个策略把那个一年的视角提前到了1月份。所以我认为,“Nvidia的价格会小幅上涨。”这是我的主要依据。这大概率就是会发生的情况,对吧?
This strategy brings that one-year perspective up to January. So I think, " Nvidia's price will increase a little." This is my main foundation. That's probably what's going to happen, right ?
这就是Nvidia这类Mag Seven股票通常的表现。它的价格会定期上涨,或者当利润表发布时,价格可能会大幅上涨。或者就Nvidia而言,价格甚至可能下跌。
This is what Nvidia Mag Seven stock usually does. Its price increases regularly, or when the income statement is released , the price may increase significantly. Or in the case of Nvidia, the price could even go down.
不过,从总体上看,根据一年时间框架的股票走势图,280是我的目标价,对吧?所以,在短期内,比如说到1月份,我认为Nvidia可能涨到245。
However, in a general sense, according to the 1-year time frame stock chart, 280 is my price target, right ? So, for a short period of time, let's say until January, I think Nvidia could go up to 245.
所以,如果Nvidia的价格保持不变,我就会赚钱,因为我卖出的那张看涨期权的价值会下降,从而给我带来全部收益。
So, if the price of Nvidia stays the same, I will make a profit because the value of the short call I sold will decrease and bring me that full amount.
如果Nvidia的价格小幅上涨,那就太好了。那时我会赚更多钱。我的预期利润会持续增加,直到245。
If Nvidia's price increases a little , that would be great. I will earn more money then. My expected profit will continue to increase until 245.
只要我保持在这个区间内,也就是我预期Nvidia会交易的区间内,这就是一笔有吸引力的交易。所以,这正是我打算对Nvidia做的事,但我还有一些比Nvidia更有吸引力的股票,因为它们波动性更高,当然,波动性更高意味着我在卖出看涨期权时能收取更多权利金。
As long as I stay within this range , which is the range I expect Nvidia to trade within, it will be an attractive trade. So, that's exactly what I plan to do with Nvidia , but I have some other stocks that are more attractive than Nvidia, because they have higher volatility, and of course higher volatility means I can collect more premium when I sell the call options.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。