$NVDA

NVDA is pressured by AI financing worries; Evercore and Dan Ives call the pullback a buying opportunity, with Ives keeping outperform and a $300 target. RTX Spark positive; NVDA grows 85%, though macro worries can derail. Near-term options are split: a small bounce to ~$225 vs a slow decline to ~$207.5.

He framed it in months
“Bull v. Bear: NVDA Launches RTX Spark Laptops, Challenges INTC & AMD”
Schwab NetworkEvercore ISI; Dan IvesPublished Oct 16 · 31 passages

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Nvidia's stock is currently holding its own but is still feeling the pressure this week. It has been affected by broader artificial intelligence pressures, as investors question whether massive spending can continue amid high interest rates and rising financing costs.

Evercore ISI is reaffirming its buy recommendation, saying concerns about AI demand, competition, and Blackwell's delays are exaggerated, according to CNBC.

Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, maintaining his outperform rating and a price target of $300.

Ives asserts that Nvidia 's competitive advantage extends beyond chips to encompass the entire AI infrastructure ecosystem, including networks, software, and next-generation systems.

Meanwhile, Nvidia is expanding its reach into personal computers with the launch of new Windows-powered RTX Spark PCs featuring Blackwell graphics, starting today.

She is trying to recover now. Is there a glimmer of hope in these new devices? I believe that the announcement of "RTX Spark" is just another chapter in Nvidia's expanding footprint, not only in chip manufacturing but also in their use .

Unified memory, and running all models entirely locally without the need for a cloud connection. I think this is more important, do you remember Vera Rubin? They have entered the field of central processing units (CPUs) , not just graphics processing units (GPUs).

Nvidia leverages its strengths and vast cash reserves to innovate new products. Do you think they won't be able to compete in the computer market against Intel and others? Yes, they will if you ask me.

I think this is just another chapter for Nvidia with a new product to compete in this market. I think this is very positive for Nvidia.

Yes, 10 days ago it was recording record levels, and we have fallen by about 11% from those levels.

They are not immune to the current macroeconomic narrative; Concerns about debt and AI financing are causing some anxiety for the technology sector in general , and especially for semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel.

All these names that we will talk about today are experiencing a decline along with the market. Is this debt financing? What about building the infrastructure for artificial intelligence data and the huge investments being made in it, with everyone saying they will continue to increase capital expenditures?

Will this start to decline slightly with the potential drying up of funding and the rising cost of borrowing? We know that Nvidia is growing at 85% and has a large free cash flow .

They are not immune to this news , and you have seen that in the case of Korwef and the setback that occurred there. They have partnerships with all these technology companies.

So when this talk starts to escalate a little, that's why you see these stock prices decline.

But if you look only at the fundamentals, their growth rate, and the guidance they provide, the outlook is very good, but anything can derail that outlook and I think that's what we've been seeing since last week or so .

And now , as you know, they don't have earnings reports until November 17th. Remember that they always come later in the cycle than others, but I looked at something that precedes profits, which is buying the dip or trading based on the dip we are seeing now. The stock has fallen quite significantly .

So, what I looked at was buying a call option with an execution price of 225 on November 6, and selling a call option with an execution price of 225 for the following week on October 23.

Just a two-week call calendar for Nvidia, at a cost of about $2.80.

Now, as you know, some diagonal strategies were not well priced. Remember, this is a two-week deal, so you can extend the term and reduce the net discount, but based on the pricing and expected movement, this was more attractive, and Tom, you know, that's part of the process.

You are testing a diagonal strategy, and it doesn't look as good as a calendar spread strategy.

The calendar strategy gave you a slightly higher profit if you were correct in terms of percentage predictions. So, Tom, I just looked at a calendar of two-week call options at 225, looking forward to a small bounce here at Nvidia.

Moving on to the November 6th weekly options, with 21 days remaining until expiry, we buy the call option at 225, and sell the same call option at 225 in the short-term options on October 23rd, which expire next Friday, i.e., 7 days from now.

The cost of payment is 280, and that's your risk, $280 per contract.

You can see here that profitability peaks at or near the execution price of 225, but you have a good range here, perhaps between around 217 on the lower side and possibly up to 233 or 234 on the upper side to realize potential profits from this trade.

So, while you're targeting a price of 225, you have a range where you can be profitable. You will have the opportunity to roll over this put option within the next seven days to another weekly cycle.

They have three weekly options on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Therefore, you will have the ability to create a credit balance, which reduces your risk and increases potential profitability.

You really need the arrow to move slightly upwards here. We have broken the 50-day simple moving average to the downside, which is at around $223. So if an upward movement occurs, you will be within this profit range if it acts as a resistance level, but you will remain within that profitable range .

Now, what is it that you don't want to happen? Well, you don't want the stock to stay here and go down, do you ? Or you don't want it to rise again to achieve its all-time high above 235, for example.

This is where you start losing profitability on the far upper side.

But it's a low-cost way to get some top-side exposure with Nvidia expected to gradually return to around 225, while remaining within a defined range.

Kevin, in my trade I took a more downward direction through an unbalanced "butterfly sell" strategy as I moved into the weekly October 30 options . Therefore, there are only 14 days left until expiry, which is a very short-term situation with one buy-one put option at a strike price of 217.5, and two sell-one options at a strike price of 207.5.

This is the target you want to reach maximum profitability , then buy one of the put options at an execution price of 202.5.

You are paying a repayment cost of approximately 270. It is probably trading closer to 250 now because the stock has moved slightly higher. The stock has moved slightly away from the execution price of 217.5.

But if you pay that cost of 270, that's your risk, $270 per contract, and it lowers your breakeven point, Kevin, to 214.80 on the downside.

We were at roughly this level earlier today, but you are giving yourself downside exposure, expecting the stock to gradually decline here. Yes, a 14-day deal, buying a vertical call option with a bid of $10, 217, 207, and selling a vertical put option with a bid of $5.

So, we add up 2.70 and look for the price direction, as you know , to get closer to the strike price of 207.5. You have a risk of $2.70 in the event of any upward movement. So, as you know , the amount paid is the risk here.

You're looking at a move towards a short execution price at this time, where you could almost quadruple your money, Tom, if it heads towards $10.

Obviously, if you go beyond that, you will lose part of your profits, but not all of them. Of course, the risk lies in the upward direction, and risk is the amount paid, Tom. You should always be careful if the price moves between execution prices.

Oh yes, you made a good point there. Even below the 202.5 level, the profits are still double what you risk, which is almost the same amount. Therefore, this anticipates a slow, gradual decline there , not necessarily an all-out sell-off.

Now, remember the 200-day simple moving average is around $203. So, this will remain within the profitability range if it reaches that support level, but it's an unbalanced bearish butterfly selling strategy here in Nvidia, and then a bullish Kevin buy option valuation in Nvidia, Diane.

Watchpoints

NVDA's November 17 earnings report, including growth and guidance

What this channel has said about $NVDA

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