$NVDA

NVDA 因 AI 融资担忧而承压;Evercore 与 Dan Ives 认为此次回调是买入机会,Ives 维持跑赢大盘评级及 300 美元目标价。RTX Spark 表现积极;NVDA 增长 85%,但宏观担忧可能使其脱轨。近期期权观点分化:小幅反弹至约 225 美元,对比缓慢下跌至约 207.5 美元。

他说的是几个月内
《Bull v. Bear: NVDA Launches RTX Spark Laptops, Challenges INTC & AMD》
Schwab NetworkEvercore ISI; Dan Ives发布 2026-10-16 · 31 段内容
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31 段内容
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Nvidia 的股价目前还算站得住,但本周仍感受到压力。它受到了人工智能板块整体压力的影响,因为投资者在质疑,在高利率和融资成本上升的环境下,如此庞大的支出能否持续。

Nvidia's stock is currently holding its own but is still feeling the pressure this week. It has been affected by broader artificial intelligence pressures, as investors question whether massive spending can continue amid high interest rates and rising financing costs.

据 CNBC 报道,Evercore ISI 重申其买入评级,称对 AI 需求、竞争以及 Blackwell 延迟的担忧被夸大了。

Evercore ISI is reaffirming its buy recommendation, saying concerns about AI demand, competition, and Blackwell's delays are exaggerated, according to CNBC.

Yorkville Ives 的 Dan Ives 认为这轮回调是买入机会,维持其跑赢大盘评级和 300 美元的目标价。

Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, maintaining his outperform rating and a price target of $300.

Ives 断言,Nvidia 的竞争优势不仅限于芯片,还涵盖整个人工智能基础设施生态,包括网络、软件以及下一代系统。

Ives asserts that Nvidia 's competitive advantage extends beyond chips to encompass the entire AI infrastructure ecosystem, including networks, software, and next-generation systems.

与此同时,Nvidia 正通过推出搭载 Blackwell 显卡、运行 Windows 的新款 RTX Spark PC,将触角扩展至个人电脑领域,从今天开始。

Meanwhile, Nvidia is expanding its reach into personal computers with the launch of new Windows-powered RTX Spark PCs featuring Blackwell graphics, starting today.

她现在正试图恢复。这些新设备中是否有一丝希望?我认为,“RTX Spark”的发布只是 Nvidia 版图不断扩张的又一个篇章,不仅体现在芯片制造上,也体现在它们的使用上。

She is trying to recover now. Is there a glimmer of hope in these new devices? I believe that the announcement of "RTX Spark" is just another chapter in Nvidia's expanding footprint, not only in chip manufacturing but also in their use .

统一内存,并且完全在本地运行所有模型,无需连接云端。我认为这一点更重要,你还记得 Vera Rubin 吗?他们已经进入了中央处理器(CPU)领域,而不仅仅是图形处理器(GPU)。

Unified memory, and running all models entirely locally without the need for a cloud connection. I think this is more important, do you remember Vera Rubin? They have entered the field of central processing units (CPUs) , not just graphics processing units (GPUs).

Nvidia 利用自身优势和庞大的现金储备来创新产品。你觉得他们在电脑市场上就无法与 Intel 等公司竞争吗?要我说,他们能。

Nvidia leverages its strengths and vast cash reserves to innovate new products. Do you think they won't be able to compete in the computer market against Intel and others? Yes, they will if you ask me.

我认为,对 Nvidia 来说,这只是又一个篇章,用一款新产品在这个市场上参与竞争。我认为这对 Nvidia 非常有利。

I think this is just another chapter for Nvidia with a new product to compete in this market. I think this is very positive for Nvidia.

是的,10 天前它还在创下历史新高,而我们已经从那些高位下跌了约 11%。

Yes, 10 days ago it was recording record levels, and we have fallen by about 11% from those levels.

它们也无法免受当前宏观经济叙事的影响;对债务和 AI 融资的担忧,正让整个科技板块感到一些焦虑,尤其是 Nvidia、AMD 和 Intel 这样的半导体设备制造商。

They are not immune to the current macroeconomic narrative; Concerns about debt and AI financing are causing some anxiety for the technology sector in general , and especially for semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel.

我们今天要谈到的所有这些名字,都在随大盘一起下跌。这是债务融资吗?那为人工智能数据建设基础设施、以及在其中投入的巨额投资呢,所有人都说他们会继续增加资本支出?

All these names that we will talk about today are experiencing a decline along with the market. Is this debt financing? What about building the infrastructure for artificial intelligence data and the huge investments being made in it, with everyone saying they will continue to increase capital expenditures?

随着资金可能枯竭、借贷成本上升,这会不会开始小幅下滑?我们知道 Nvidia 正以 85% 的速度增长,并且拥有庞大的自由现金流。

Will this start to decline slightly with the potential drying up of funding and the rising cost of borrowing? We know that Nvidia is growing at 85% and has a large free cash flow .

他们并不能免受这条消息的影响,从Korwef的情况以及那里出现的挫折就能看出来。他们与所有这些科技公司都有合作。所以当这种说法开始有所升温时,你就会看到这些股价下跌。

They are not immune to this news , and you have seen that in the case of Korwef and the setback that occurred there. They have partnerships with all these technology companies.

So when this talk starts to escalate a little, that's why you see these stock prices decline.

但如果只看基本面、它们的增长率以及它们给出的指引,前景是非常好的,但任何事情都可能破坏这一前景,我认为这就是我们从上周左右以来一直看到的情况。

But if you look only at the fundamentals, their growth rate, and the guidance they provide, the outlook is very good, but anything can derail that outlook and I think that's what we've been seeing since last week or so .

而现在,如你所知,他们要到11月17日才会有财报。记住,他们的财报总是比其他人来得更晚,但我看了一个先于利润出现的东西,就是逢低买入,或者基于我们现在看到的下跌进行交易。这只股票已经跌得相当厉害了。

And now , as you know, they don't have earnings reports until November 17th. Remember that they always come later in the cycle than others, but I looked at something that precedes profits, which is buying the dip or trading based on the dip we are seeing now. The stock has fallen quite significantly .

所以,我看的是买入一份11月6日、执行价为225的看涨期权,同时卖出一份10月23日、也就是下一周、执行价为225的看涨期权。就是Nvidia的一个两周看涨期权日历价差,成本大约2.80美元。

So, what I looked at was buying a call option with an execution price of 225 on November 6, and selling a call option with an execution price of 225 for the following week on October 23.

Just a two-week call calendar for Nvidia, at a cost of about $2.80.

现在,如你所知,一些对角策略定价并不理想。记住,这是一个两周的交易,所以你可以延长期限并降低净折价,但基于定价和预期波动,这个更有吸引力,Tom,你知道,这就是过程的一部分。你在测试一个对角策略,而它看起来不如日历价差策略那么好。

Now, as you know, some diagonal strategies were not well priced. Remember, this is a two-week deal, so you can extend the term and reduce the net discount, but based on the pricing and expected movement, this was more attractive, and Tom, you know, that's part of the process.

You are testing a diagonal strategy, and it doesn't look as good as a calendar spread strategy.

如果你在百分比预测方面判断正确,日历策略给你的利润会略高一些。所以,Tom,我刚刚看的是一个两周、执行价为225的看涨期权日历价差,期待Nvidia在这里出现小幅反弹。

The calendar strategy gave you a slightly higher profit if you were correct in terms of percentage predictions. So, Tom, I just looked at a calendar of two-week call options at 225, looking forward to a small bounce here at Nvidia.

接下来看11月6日的周度期权,距离到期还有21天,我们买入执行价为225的看涨期权,同时在10月23日、也就是下周五到期、即距今7天的短期期权中卖出同样执行价为225的看涨期权。

支付成本是280,这就是你的风险,每份合约280美元。

Moving on to the November 6th weekly options, with 21 days remaining until expiry, we buy the call option at 225, and sell the same call option at 225 in the short-term options on October 23rd, which expire next Friday, i.e., 7 days from now.

The cost of payment is 280, and that's your risk, $280 per contract.

你可以看到,盈利在执行价225处或附近达到峰值,但这里有一个不错的区间,下沿大约在217左右,上沿可能到233或234,从而从这笔交易中实现潜在利润。

You can see here that profitability peaks at or near the execution price of 225, but you have a good range here, perhaps between around 217 on the lower side and possibly up to 233 or 234 on the upper side to realize potential profits from this trade.

所以,虽然你的目标是225这个价格,但你有一个可以盈利的区间。你将有机会在未来七天内把这份看跌期权展期到另一个周度周期。他们在周一、周三和周五都有周度期权。因此,你将有能力创造出一个贷方余额,这会降低你的风险并提高潜在盈利能力。

So, while you're targeting a price of 225, you have a range where you can be profitable. You will have the opportunity to roll over this put option within the next seven days to another weekly cycle.

They have three weekly options on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Therefore, you will have the ability to create a credit balance, which reduces your risk and increases potential profitability.

你确实需要股价在这里略微向上移动。我们已经向下突破了50日简单移动平均线,该均线大约在223美元。所以如果出现向上走势,只要它起到阻力位的作用,你就会处在这个盈利区间内,但你仍会留在这个可盈利的区间内。

You really need the arrow to move slightly upwards here. We have broken the 50-day simple moving average to the downside, which is at around $223. So if an upward movement occurs, you will be within this profit range if it acts as a resistance level, but you will remain within that profitable range .

那么,你不希望发生的是什么?你不希望这只股票停在这里然后下跌,对吧?或者你不希望它再次上涨,去创下235以上的历史新高,比如这样。这就是你在上沿远端开始失去盈利能力的地方。

Now, what is it that you don't want to happen? Well, you don't want the stock to stay here and go down, do you ? Or you don't want it to rise again to achieve its all-time high above 235, for example.

This is where you start losing profitability on the far upper side.

但这是一种低成本的方式,可以在Nvidia预计逐步回到225左右的同时获得一些上行敞口,同时仍处在一个明确的区间内。

But it's a low-cost way to get some top-side exposure with Nvidia expected to gradually return to around 225, while remaining within a defined range.

Kevin,在我的交易中,我通过一个不平衡的“卖出蝶式”策略采取了更偏下行的方向,因为我转入了10月30日的周度期权。因此,距离到期只剩14天,这是一个非常短期的情形,买入一份执行价为217.5的看跌期权,卖出两份执行价为207.5的期权。

这是你想要达到最大盈利的目标,然后再买入一份执行价为202.5的看跌期权。

Kevin, in my trade I took a more downward direction through an unbalanced "butterfly sell" strategy as I moved into the weekly October 30 options . Therefore, there are only 14 days left until expiry, which is a very short-term situation with one buy-one put option at a strike price of 217.5, and two sell-one options at a strike price of 207.5.

This is the target you want to reach maximum profitability , then buy one of the put options at an execution price of 202.5.

你支付的偿还成本大约是270。现在它很可能更接近250,因为股价已经略微上涨。股价已经略微偏离了217.5的执行价。但如果你支付270这个成本,那就是你的风险,每份合约270美元,而且它把你的下行盈亏平衡点,Kevin,降低到了214.80。

You are paying a repayment cost of approximately 270. It is probably trading closer to 250 now because the stock has moved slightly higher. The stock has moved slightly away from the execution price of 217.5.

But if you pay that cost of 270, that's your risk, $270 per contract, and it lowers your breakeven point, Kevin, to 214.80 on the downside.

我们今天早些时候大致就在这个水平,但你是在给自己下行敞口,预期这只股票在这里逐步下跌。是的,一个14天的交易,买入一份垂直看涨期权,买价10美元,217、207,同时卖出一份垂直看跌期权,卖价5美元。

所以,我们把2.70加起来,然后如你所知,寻找价格方向,以更接近207.5的执行价。如果出现任何向上走势,你的风险是2.70美元。所以,如你所知,支付的金额就是这里的风险。你现在看的是向一个较低执行价移动,Tom,如果它朝10美元方向走,你几乎可以让资金翻两番。

We were at roughly this level earlier today, but you are giving yourself downside exposure, expecting the stock to gradually decline here. Yes, a 14-day deal, buying a vertical call option with a bid of $10, 217, 207, and selling a vertical put option with a bid of $5.

So, we add up 2.70 and look for the price direction, as you know , to get closer to the strike price of 207.5. You have a risk of $2.70 in the event of any upward movement. So, as you know , the amount paid is the risk here.

You're looking at a move towards a short execution price at this time, where you could almost quadruple your money, Tom, if it heads towards $10.

显然,如果你超出那个范围,你会损失一部分利润,但不是全部。当然,风险在于上行方向,而风险就是支付的金额,Tom。如果价格在执行价之间移动,你始终应该小心。

Obviously, if you go beyond that, you will lose part of your profits, but not all of them. Of course, the risk lies in the upward direction, and risk is the amount paid, Tom. You should always be careful if the price moves between execution prices.

哦对,你那里说得很有道理。即便跌破202.5这一水平,盈利仍然是所冒风险的两倍,两者金额几乎相同。因此,这预示着那里会缓慢、逐步地下跌,而不一定是全面抛售。

Oh yes, you made a good point there. Even below the 202.5 level, the profits are still double what you risk, which is almost the same amount. Therefore, this anticipates a slow, gradual decline there , not necessarily an all-out sell-off.

现在,记住200日简单移动平均线大约在203美元。所以,如果它触及该支撑位,仍会处于盈利区间内,但这里是Nvidia上一种不平衡的看跌蝶式卖出策略,然后是Nvidia上一种看涨的Kevin买入期权估值,Diane。

Now, remember the 200-day simple moving average is around $203. So, this will remain within the profitability range if it reaches that support level, but it's an unbalanced bearish butterfly selling strategy here in Nvidia, and then a bullish Kevin buy option valuation in Nvidia, Diane.

观察点

NVDA 11月17日的财报,包括增长和指引
增长和指引确认了良好前景
11月17日NVDA 11月17日的财报
支持看涨观点

这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 32 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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