NVDA's CUDA moat, low $30 billion debt, high margins and 106% revenue growth support growth; risks are customers building own chips and China exclusion. Under 12.5%/22.5%/32.5% revenue growth, lower margins and 18–28x terminal multiples, average value is $540 vs $217 now, implying a 21% return; pessimistic value $150.

Even the king, Nvidia, has seen a decline.

Nvidia's by 7%, and even Google's by 3%. The share price of " CoroWave" fell by about four times the amount of "Nvidia ".

Nvidia's data center sales jumped to $89 billion , an increase of 117%.

In the first phase, suppliers like Nvidia are making a fortune right now.

So, first, Nvidia, the undisputed king of artificial intelligence, has dropped by about 7%. Her numbers are amazing, guys. Revenues rose by 106% to $96 billion , and it retains about 75 cents of every dollar after paying for the costs of manufacturing its chips.

In an optimistic scenario, Nvidia isn't just selling chips. It sells a complete package of hardware and software that customers build their entire systems around, and it is very difficult to give it up .

That software, called CUDA, is a formidable defensive trench. Think of it as a wall that prevents competitors from entering.

The company also told investors to expect better performance in the next quarter, reaching approximately $108 billion. More intelligent artificial intelligence may require even more of its chips.

In the case of pessimism, a small group of giant clients accounts for most of its sales. Some of these same customers are now building their own chips or considering doing so to reduce their dependence on Nvidia.

Furthermore, it has been excluded from the Chinese market.

Okay guys, here's Nvidia. Many people here view the share price as the price of the company. I don't want you to do that. I want you to look at the market value. Guys, this is the actual price of the business, a market capitalization of $5.29 trillion.

Guys, it's only $30 billion in debt. As a number , that sounds like a lot, but when you generate $130 billion in free cash flow last year, and $52 billion annually over the past five years, $30 billion in debt is negligible.

Now, guys, what I like is that members of our community rate it as a strong buy. Before everyone thinks that the members of our community are just people who follow everything I say, that's not the case at all .

We will get to Nvidia and what we think it deserves, but you know me, I have been one of the harshest critics of Nvidia's rating. As a company, it's amazing.

Next, look at this rate of profit growth. The profit margin for 10 years is 53.5%. For 5 years 56%, and for one year 63.5%. Guys, their earnings per share growth over the past 10 years has grown by 68% annually.

No one could have predicted this 10 years ago . Absolutely unbelievable.

However, one of the main reasons for this is their low debt levels. They don't have to worry about paying off these debts all the time.

Next, high returns on capital are expected because their operating income continues to grow. Guys, let's be honest here. An amazing business by all standards.

The company is being sold for 42 times free cash flow and 27 times earnings. But remember, these numbers in themselves do not mean that the company is expensive. We must realize that we are paying for the future.

So, if Nvidia can increase its profits over the next ten years by 50% or 60% annually as it has done in the past ten years, it is obvious and requires no thought. The question is, can they do that?

Okay, let's take a look at Nvidia's eight pillars. Okay, folks, we have six right marks, two wrong marks, and surprisingly—and here I'm being sarcastic—the two wrong marks are the 5-year price-to-earnings ratio and the 5-year price-to-free cash flow .

Everything else is wonderful . High returns on capital. They are buying back shares, which is good if they are cheap, but not good if they are not . Cash flow increases, net income increases, revenues increase, and long-term debt can be paid off very quickly .

Now, let's see what analysts think about Nvidia's earnings per share growth . From 9.26 to 23, then back down to 20. There is still a doubling in value over the next four years.

Guys, that's only 18% per year. Just a reminder of that before we move on.

Revenues rise from 409 billion to 1.12 trillion. So, that's a good growth of 2.5 times over the next four years . Very high growth rate. It's still astonishing for a company valued at five trillion dollars.

So, guys, we have some stories. We have some figures. Our goal now is to run it through our stock analysis tool and determine the appropriate price for the company. Guys, I'm going to be bold here.

I will assume that this prosperity will continue, and there will be no setbacks, etc. I will assume revenue growth of 12.5%, 22.5%, and 32.5% for the next ten years, which is a very high number.

But it is less than their growth rate in the past ten years, which was approximately 50% annually.

Next, the profit margin and the free cash flow margin . Guys, I have to think that the profit margin won't stay this high for very long . These companies build their own chips.

There will be other companies building chips for it. I'm still setting a high number here . I chose 35%, 50%, and 65%.

Next, what price-to-earnings ratio will I allocate to this company 10 years from now? Okay guys, that's how I make my decision. The average S &P 500 index ranges between 15 and 17 in the long term.

Is this company better or worse than the average company in the S&P index? Guys, it's clearly better . High returns on capital, it's insane. High growth rates. Very low debt. This is a great business.

So, I'll give her a bonus. 18, 23, and 28 times earnings and free cash flow.

Finally, what return am I aiming for? Guys, for all these companies , I'm setting a return of just 9.5% to see what the company is worth . What is intrinsic value? Remember, this is not the price I am willing to pay for it.

There is no margin of safety here. Therefore, when analyzing your own stocks, make sure to put a number higher than 9.5%.

So, I'll press the analyze button. The stock price is currently 217. Guys, I have a low price at 150, a high price at 1750, and an average price at 540, which means based on my average assumptions, if I paid today's price, I would get a return of 21%.