PYPL is down 82% with real competition risk, but he calls it a classic value setup: 400mn users, $6.6bn free cash flow at 7.5x, buybacks. His middle assumptions imply $126, a ~22% return; 15% at his low case. He owns it and sees the most potential, though he doesn't know the outcome and a halving could change it.

These are names that you know well. Nike, PayPal, and Adobe are part of it. Second, payments and credit scoring like PayPal, which is down 82% and FICO, which is down 70%, spooked by new competition.

Next up, PayPal down a jawdropping 82% from its all-time high. Why so brutal? Well, guys, back during the pandemic, everyone assumed that online payments would grow forever and the stock got wildly overpriced.

Since then, growth has cooled off and tough rivals like Apple Pay showed up to fight for the checkout button. So, the stock is getting continuously crushed. And the bare case here is real.

If newer, slicker payment options keep winning, PayPal's profits could slowly keep shrinking. But look a little closer because this is a classic value setup in my opinion. PayPal still has over 400 million active users and processes hundreds of billions of dollars of transactions every single quarter, throwing off piles of cash.

And it's using that cash to buy back about $6 billion of its own stock a year while the price keeps getting beaten down. That is exactly the buyback engine that we talked about.

It can push earnings per share even higher if the business just holds steady. But I'm going to show you some numbers here that might surprise you. And get this, another payments giant, Stripe, actually offered to buy the entire company for over $40 billion this year at about $60 per share.

I, as an investor, did not like that. I said it's worth far more than $60 per share. I will show you that shortly. But that deal fell through. So don't go counting on a buyout.

But it does tell you that serious people believe PayPal's pieces are worth far more than today's price. So let's run through it right now. So guys, this is a $50 billion company with a lot of enterprise value, but a lot of that money and enterprise value, it's their total debt.

It shows the money they have in their hands that they owe to other people. So when you deposit money at PayPal or you're running transactions with PayPal, they hold that money.

That is a liability for them. So I'm not worried about this. Couple things I do like, 12 and a.5% 5-year return on capital and growing to 14 and a half percent. Another thing I like, the dying business did 6.6 billion in free cash flow last year versus 5.3 billion for the last 5year average and it's selling for 7 and a half times free cash flow and nine times its 5year free cash flow.

Guys, I love that. And guys, we talk about a company people saying it's dying. 13% revenue growth for the last 10 years, 7.4 the last five, 6% for the last one year. Let's go take a look at revenue right now.

This is the annual revenue of PayPal. Yes, it is slowing down. It is not declining. The growth has slowed. It is not declining. Let's go look at it quarterly. Guys, this is a company that is down big time and people were saying it I don't I don't see this and think it's a declining business, but there could be things working underneath it.

So, let's go check out our eight pillars on the company.

This is an eight pillar stock. But remember, just because it's eight pillars doesn't mean you go out and buy it. Just because it has eight checks doesn't mean you avoid it. It's about telling a story.

And guys, this is the part I love the most. They've bought back 24% of their shares in the last 5 years. That is a company that is truly understanding that when a stock is cheap, you buy back shares.

Look at this. They were basically consistent until 2022 when they just started buying back a ton of shares. So all they're doing is they're giving you more and more ownership of the company as time goes on if the stock stays cheap. That's what we love to see.

So what do analysts think about profit? Well guys, they have profit growing from 538 per share to 758. If you multiply this by 20, you're looking at $150 stock in four years. It's currently at $50 or $55. That's almost triple in four years.

If this all plays out with revenue growing 4%, 4 and a.5, three and a half, 8%. Not a grower. But if you pay a cheap enough price, it makes it all worthwhile.

So, what is the best price to pay based on my assumptions? Well, guys, again, a 10-year analysis. I did three, five, and 7% revenue growth. Now guys, I'm focusing here on free cash flow because the free cash flow here is higher than its profit margin.

So I'm just going to zero out my profit margin and my PE which is based on profit margin. So I'm going to focus on free cash flow. I'm doing 14, 17, and 20% free cash flow. Keep in mind last year and their 10-year average are 19.3%.

I made my middle assumption lower than that. 17%.

Next, what price of free cash flow would I sign into this business 10 years from now? Well, guys, returns on capital are getting better. It does have a lot of competition, but I'm putting 15, 18, and 21.

And then, of course, my 9.5% no margin of safety. What is the intrinsic value return?

Now, you just watched me take PayPal, a stock that's down 82% from its all-time high with tough rivals coming after it. and I plugged in my own numbers for growth, for margins, and for the price I'm willing to pay.

Be honest with yourself for one second. If I shut this video off right now and I handed you any one of these 134 stocks, could you do that on your own? Could you tell me the price where it's a bargain and the price where it's a trap?

Guys, don't feel bad if your answer is no. Most people cannot. And that's not a knock on you or them. Nobody ever taught you. So when a stock drops 60 70 80% you're stuck with one of two bad choices.

You buy on a gut feeling or you sit on your hands and watch. This is exactly the gap that our community fills.

And what's it going to cost you to not know the price that you're willing to pay? That is the most important pri question in investing. What is the right price to pay? So what would it be worth to you to have the clarity on what a stock is worth before you put a single dollar in it?

Now, quite guys, I'm quite sure you'd say it's worth far more than $1 a day to you, but guess what? Click the link below. Start our 7-day trial for $7. You get the same stock analyzer that I just used.

You get a room full of people working the exact same process. So, the next time a stock you like gets cut in half or more, you're not going to guess. You're going to know the price that you're willing to pay based on the assumptions you made. So, click the link below. Let's try it out.

Now for PayPal's results, I hit the analyze button. I scroll down. I have a low price of 80, high price of 190, middle price of 126. So what this means is if my middle assumptions occur, I'm going to make about a 22% return on my money.

If my low assumptions occur, it's still 15%. And if my high assumptions occur, it could potentially be 30%.

Now, I don't know where it's going to end up, but the point is, if my low assumptions are still a 15% return, and I had 30 companies like this, I'm probably going to do pretty well overall.

So guys, ironically, the one company that I own, PayPal, is the one that I do think has the most potential. But remember, never buy a company because I or somebody on the internet says it.

We're here to teach a process that'll allow you to fish. But remember, if all of these prices fell in half, that would change the situation potentially if PayPal goes up. That's what you have to remember as an investor.

Price versus value is going to determine whether it's a good investment or not.