PYPL下跌82%，面临真实竞争风险，但他称其为经典价值型机会：4亿用户、66亿美元自由现金流、估值仅7.5倍、还有回购。他的中性假设隐含126美元，约22%回报；悲观情景下为15%。他持有该股并认为其潜力最大，尽管他并不确定结果，且股价腰斩可能改变这一判断。
逐段跳播
这些都是你熟悉的名字。Nike、PayPal和Adobe都在其中。第二，支付和信用评分，比如PayPal，下跌了82%，还有FICO，下跌了70%，都被新竞争吓到了。
These are names that you know well. Nike, PayPal, and Adobe are part of it. Second, payments and credit scoring like PayPal, which is down 82% and FICO, which is down 70%, spooked by new competition.
接下来是PayPal，从历史最高点下跌了惊人的82%。为什么这么惨烈？各位，在疫情期间，所有人都以为在线支付会永远增长，这只股票被炒得严重高估。从那以后，增长降温了，像Apple Pay这样强劲的对手出现，争夺结账按钮。
所以，这只股票被持续打压。而这里的看空理由也是真实的。如果更新、更流畅的支付方式继续胜出，PayPal的利润可能会慢慢持续萎缩。但再仔细看看，因为在我看来这是一个经典的价值型布局。
PayPal仍然拥有超过4亿活跃用户，每个季度处理数千亿美元的交易，产生大量现金。而且它用这些现金每年回购约60亿美元自己的股票，而股价却不断被打压。这正是我们谈过的回购引擎。
只要业务保持稳定，它就能把每股收益推得更高。但我要给你看一些可能会让你惊讶的数字。而且你听好了，另一家支付巨头Stripe今年居然提出以超过400亿美元、约每股60美元的价格收购整个公司。
作为投资者，我不喜欢这个价格。我说它的价值远高于每股60美元。我很快就会给你展示。但那笔交易没成。所以别指望被收购。但它确实告诉你，认真的人相信PayPal的各个部分价值远高于今天的价格。
那我们现在就来过一遍。各位，这是一家市值500亿美元的公司，企业价值很高，但其中很多钱和企业价值，是它的总债务。它显示的是他们手里持有、但欠别人的钱。所以当你在PayPal存钱，或者用PayPal做交易时，他们持有那笔钱。
那对他们来说是一项负债。所以我不担心这个。有几件事我确实喜欢，12.5%的5年资本回报率，并增长到14.5%。另一件我喜欢的事，这个所谓的垂死业务去年做了66亿美元的自由现金流，而过去5年平均是53亿美元，而且它的售价只有自由现金流的7.5倍，以及5年自由现金流的9倍。
各位，我喜欢这个。各位，我们谈论一家人们说它正在垂死的公司。过去10年营收增长13%，过去五年7.4%，过去一年6%。我们现在来看看营收。这是PayPal的年度营收。是的，它在放缓。
它没有下滑。增长放缓了。它没有下滑。我们来看看季度数据。各位，这是一家大幅下跌的公司，人们说它，我不，我不看这个就觉得它是个衰退的业务，但底下可能有些东西在起作用。那么，让我们来看看这家公司的八大支柱。
Next up, PayPal down a jawdropping 82% from its all-time high. Why so brutal? Well, guys, back during the pandemic, everyone assumed that online payments would grow forever and the stock got wildly overpriced.
Since then, growth has cooled off and tough rivals like Apple Pay showed up to fight for the checkout button. So, the stock is getting continuously crushed. And the bare case here is real.
If newer, slicker payment options keep winning, PayPal's profits could slowly keep shrinking. But look a little closer because this is a classic value setup in my opinion. PayPal still has over 400 million active users and processes hundreds of billions of dollars of transactions every single quarter, throwing off piles of cash.
And it's using that cash to buy back about $6 billion of its own stock a year while the price keeps getting beaten down. That is exactly the buyback engine that we talked about.
It can push earnings per share even higher if the business just holds steady. But I'm going to show you some numbers here that might surprise you. And get this, another payments giant, Stripe, actually offered to buy the entire company for over $40 billion this year at about $60 per share.
I, as an investor, did not like that. I said it's worth far more than $60 per share. I will show you that shortly. But that deal fell through. So don't go counting on a buyout.
But it does tell you that serious people believe PayPal's pieces are worth far more than today's price. So let's run through it right now. So guys, this is a $50 billion company with a lot of enterprise value, but a lot of that money and enterprise value, it's their total debt.
It shows the money they have in their hands that they owe to other people. So when you deposit money at PayPal or you're running transactions with PayPal, they hold that money.
That is a liability for them. So I'm not worried about this. Couple things I do like, 12 and a.5% 5-year return on capital and growing to 14 and a half percent. Another thing I like, the dying business did 6.6 billion in free cash flow last year versus 5.3 billion for the last 5year average and it's selling for 7 and a half times free cash flow and nine times its 5year free cash flow.
Guys, I love that. And guys, we talk about a company people saying it's dying. 13% revenue growth for the last 10 years, 7.4 the last five, 6% for the last one year. Let's go take a look at revenue right now.
This is the annual revenue of PayPal. Yes, it is slowing down. It is not declining. The growth has slowed. It is not declining. Let's go look at it quarterly. Guys, this is a company that is down big time and people were saying it I don't I don't see this and think it's a declining business, but there could be things working underneath it.
So, let's go check out our eight pillars on the company.
这是一只八大支柱的股票。但记住，仅仅因为它是八大支柱，并不意味着你就该去买它。仅仅因为它有八个勾，并不意味着你就要避开它。关键在于讲出一个故事。
This is an eight pillar stock. But remember, just because it's eight pillars doesn't mean you go out and buy it. Just because it has eight checks doesn't mean you avoid it. It's about telling a story.
各位，这是我最喜欢的部分。他们在过去5年里回购了24%的股份。这是一家真正懂得当股票便宜时就回购股份的公司。看看这个。他们基本上一直很稳定，直到2022年，他们开始大量回购股份。
所以他们所做的事，就是只要股票保持便宜，随着时间推移就给你越来越多的公司所有权。这正是我们喜欢看到的。
And guys, this is the part I love the most. They've bought back 24% of their shares in the last 5 years. That is a company that is truly understanding that when a stock is cheap, you buy back shares.
Look at this. They were basically consistent until 2022 when they just started buying back a ton of shares. So all they're doing is they're giving you more and more ownership of the company as time goes on if the stock stays cheap. That's what we love to see.
那么分析师怎么看利润？各位，他们预计利润从每股538增长到758。如果你把这个乘以20，你看到的是四年后150美元的股价。它目前是50美元或55美元。四年内几乎翻三倍。
So what do analysts think about profit? Well guys, they have profit growing from 538 per share to 758. If you multiply this by 20, you're looking at $150 stock in four years. It's currently at $50 or $55. That's almost triple in four years.
如果这一切都实现，营收增长4%、4.5%、3.5%、8%。不是一只成长股。但如果你付出的价格足够便宜，这一切就都值得了。
If this all plays out with revenue growing 4%, 4 and a.5, three and a half, 8%. Not a grower. But if you pay a cheap enough price, it makes it all worthwhile.
那么，基于我的假设，最好的买入价格是多少？各位，还是那句话，10年分析。我用了3%、5%和7%的营收增长。各位，我现在把重点放在自由现金流上，因为这里的自由现金流比它的利润率还高。
所以我干脆把利润率和基于利润率的市盈率都清零。我要专注于自由现金流。我用14%、17%和20%的自由现金流。记住，去年和它们的10年平均都是19.3%。我把中间假设设得比那个低，17%。
So, what is the best price to pay based on my assumptions? Well, guys, again, a 10-year analysis. I did three, five, and 7% revenue growth. Now guys, I'm focusing here on free cash flow because the free cash flow here is higher than its profit margin.
So I'm just going to zero out my profit margin and my PE which is based on profit margin. So I'm going to focus on free cash flow. I'm doing 14, 17, and 20% free cash flow. Keep in mind last year and their 10-year average are 19.3%.
I made my middle assumption lower than that. 17%.
接下来，10年后我愿意以多少自由现金流价格买入这家企业？各位，资本回报率在变好。它确实有很多竞争，但我设的是15、18和21。然后，当然，是我的9.5%无安全边际。内在价值回报是多少？
Next, what price of free cash flow would I sign into this business 10 years from now? Well, guys, returns on capital are getting better. It does have a lot of competition, but I'm putting 15, 18, and 21.
And then, of course, my 9.5% no margin of safety. What is the intrinsic value return?
现在，你刚看着我拿PayPal，一只从历史最高点下跌82%、还有强劲对手追击的股票，填入了我自己对增长、利润率和愿意支付价格的数字。
Now, you just watched me take PayPal, a stock that's down 82% from its all-time high with tough rivals coming after it. and I plugged in my own numbers for growth, for margins, and for the price I'm willing to pay.
对自己诚实一秒钟。如果我现在关掉这个视频，把这134只股票中的任何一只交给你，你能自己做到吗？你能告诉我哪个价格是便宜货，哪个价格是陷阱吗？
Be honest with yourself for one second. If I shut this video off right now and I handed you any one of these 134 stocks, could you do that on your own? Could you tell me the price where it's a bargain and the price where it's a trap?
各位，如果你的答案是不能，别难过。大多数人做不到。这不是在贬低你或他们。从来没人教过你。所以当一只股票下跌60%、70%、80%时，你被困在两个糟糕的选择里。要么凭直觉买入，要么干坐着观望。这正是我们社区填补的空白。
Guys, don't feel bad if your answer is no. Most people cannot. And that's not a knock on you or them. Nobody ever taught you. So when a stock drops 60 70 80% you're stuck with one of two bad choices.
You buy on a gut feeling or you sit on your hands and watch. This is exactly the gap that our community fills.
而不知道你愿意支付的价格，会让你付出什么代价？这是投资中最重要的问题。什么才是正确的买入价格？那么，在你投入哪怕一美元之前，能清楚知道一只股票值多少钱，这对你来说值多少？
And what's it going to cost you to not know the price that you're willing to pay? That is the most important pri question in investing. What is the right price to pay? So what would it be worth to you to have the clarity on what a stock is worth before you put a single dollar in it?
各位，我很确定你会说这对你来说远不止每天1美元，但你猜怎么着？点击下面的链接。用7美元开始我们的7天试用。你能得到我刚才用的同一个股票分析工具。你能得到一屋子用完全相同流程工作的人。
所以，下次你喜欢的一只股票腰斩甚至跌得更多时，你不会去猜。你会根据自己所做的假设，知道自己愿意支付的价格。所以，点击下面的链接。我们来试试吧。
Now, quite guys, I'm quite sure you'd say it's worth far more than $1 a day to you, but guess what? Click the link below. Start our 7-day trial for $7. You get the same stock analyzer that I just used.
You get a room full of people working the exact same process. So, the next time a stock you like gets cut in half or more, you're not going to guess. You're going to know the price that you're willing to pay based on the assumptions you made. So, click the link below. Let's try it out.
现在看PayPal的业绩结果，我点了分析按钮。我往下滚动。我得到低价80，高价190，中间价126。这意味着，如果我中间的假设成立，我的钱大约能获得22%的回报。如果我的低假设成立，仍然有15%。而如果我的高假设成立，可能达到30%。
Now for PayPal's results, I hit the analyze button. I scroll down. I have a low price of 80, high price of 190, middle price of 126. So what this means is if my middle assumptions occur, I'm going to make about a 22% return on my money.
If my low assumptions occur, it's still 15%. And if my high assumptions occur, it could potentially be 30%.
现在，我不知道它最终会走到哪里，但重点是，如果我的低假设仍然有15%的回报，而我有30家这样的公司，我整体上大概率会做得相当不错。
Now, I don't know where it's going to end up, but the point is, if my low assumptions are still a 15% return, and I had 30 companies like this, I'm probably going to do pretty well overall.
所以各位，讽刺的是，我持有的唯一一家公司PayPal，恰恰是我认为最有潜力的那一家。但记住，永远不要因为我或网上的某个人说了什么就去买一家公司。我们在这里是教一套流程，让你能够自己钓鱼。
但记住，如果所有这些价格都腰斩，而PayPal上涨，那可能会改变情况。作为投资者，这是你必须记住的。价格与价值将决定它是不是一笔好的投资。
So guys, ironically, the one company that I own, PayPal, is the one that I do think has the most potential. But remember, never buy a company because I or somebody on the internet says it.
We're here to teach a process that'll allow you to fish. But remember, if all of these prices fell in half, that would change the situation potentially if PayPal goes up. That's what you have to remember as an investor.
Price versus value is going to determine whether it's a good investment or not.
这个频道对 $PYPL 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。