Schwab Network on $RKLB (Nov 6, 2026)
RKLB is in a downtrend—down double digits this week on defense/space spending concerns and about 7.3% over the past year, lagging XLI and below all falling moving averages—though earnings could quickly change the technical picture. The stance is neutral-to-bullish, expecting annual lows to hold, and would sell the November 20 40/35 put spread for 120 credit (breakeven 38.80, about 20.6% downside) with a roughly 20% implied move; a break below 30 would signal further weakness if earnings disappoint.
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First, Rocket Lab had to announce its quarterly results after the market closed on Monday. Investors expect a loss of two cents per share. There are some concerns about the possibility of reduced spending on defense and space.
Rocket Lab's shares have fallen by double digits this week following the midterm elections, raising those concerns.
We can also see that Rocket Lab's stock has fallen by about 7.3% over the past year, underperforming the XLI Industrial Fund of which it is a part . This is far from its previous levels during some of these notable peaks as well.
So, Rocket Lab is kind of in the middle of the pack, but it's certainly been a tough time lately for many of these names.
Looking at Rocket Lab alone , we see that most of the price activity since the earnings announcement in August has been trending downwards within this price range between our two white lines connecting these successive peaks.
By repeating this line and placing it at the bottoms. We get a channel whose lower edge we tested yesterday. We can also see a sharper, steeper blue trend line heading downwards as we head towards the earnings announcement.
There are some horizontal levels that need to be monitored. On the downside, firstly, there is one important level. About a year ago, the lowest annual level was at 37.57. This is our green line here.
We also had a recurring support floor that was broken at approximately the 49 level . Another support level turned into a resistance level at approximately 62. Therefore, these will be the levels that many traders may have in mind during the coming week.
We can also note that we are below all of our moving averages. They are all trending downwards. This indicates that we are witnessing an acceleration in the downward trend as they continue to diverge from each other.
However, earnings results could be a catalyst capable of changing many of these technical readings very quickly . So, at the moment, we are clearly seeing a downward trend. We are also approaching the 30 level, which is the limit that indicates the oversold zone.
Therefore, a move below this area could indicate the potential for further weakness if earnings come in disappointingly low .
Now, if we look at the volume profile study here, it shows the concentration of trading volume at different price levels. Traditional trading volume tells us when trading will occur .
The size profile shows us where that happened . We can see that we have a slightly lower node from here, a smaller node ranging between 41 and 44. We have given up this area here, from 50 to 56, after losing the control point earlier, which is the heaviest trading area of all time , defined by our thick red line here, at 69.54.
High volume at significant lows is often interpreted as an important area that buyers want to hold . Any break below this level could lead to further declines, as it could represent a place where buyers have been trying to hold out.
correct. If we look here at the picture of our expected movements for the coming days, and the expiry date of the November 20th options, which is our next monthly option in 14 days, then the percentage is plus or minus about 20%.
This is a very large number for a relatively short period of time , indicating higher implied volatility.
So in this case, we will examine a put option sale deal to try to take advantage of some of this high volatility here. Therefore, sell a vertical put option with an execution price of 40 and 35 for November 20th, with a credit balance of 120.
We are somewhat looking forward to those annual lows holding here. A neutral to bullish outlook. 120 is our maximum profit, which is the balance we received. 380 would be our maximum loss here.
That is approximately 1 to 3 in terms of risk-reward ratio here. Our breakeven point is at 38.80, which is about 20.6% to the downside. Our expected move is roughly in line with that as well.
Therefore, we would need a move larger than expected to actually start losing on this trade, or a move that is roughly in line with that expected move here. This will be a deal where you just need to stay above this level, and you will be able to keep the credit you received.
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