$RKLB · Schwab Network · 2026-11-06
RKLB 处于下跌趋势——本周因国防/航天支出担忧下跌两位数，过去一年下跌约 7.3%，跑输 XLI，且位于所有下行的移动平均线之下——不过财报可能迅速改变技术面。立场为中性偏多，预期年内低点将守住，并愿意卖出 11 月 20 日 40/35 看跌价差，收取 120 权利金（盈亏平衡点 38.80，约 20.6% 下行空间），隐含波动约 20%；若财报令人失望、跌破 30，则预示进一步走弱。
逐段跳播
首先，Rocket Lab 不得不在周一收盘后公布季度业绩。投资者预计每股亏损两美分。有人担心国防和太空领域的支出可能减少。中期选举后，Rocket Lab 的股价本周已下跌两位数，这加剧了这些担忧。
First, Rocket Lab had to announce its quarterly results after the market closed on Monday. Investors expect a loss of two cents per share. There are some concerns about the possibility of reduced spending on defense and space.
Rocket Lab's shares have fallen by double digits this week following the midterm elections, raising those concerns.
我们还可以看到，Rocket Lab 的股价在过去一年下跌了约7.3%，跑输了其所属的 XLI 工业基金。这也远低于此前一些显著高点时的水平。
We can also see that Rocket Lab's stock has fallen by about 7.3% over the past year, underperforming the XLI Industrial Fund of which it is a part . This is far from its previous levels during some of these notable peaks as well.
所以，Rocket Lab 大致处于中游水平，但最近对其中许多股票来说，确实是一段艰难的时期。
So, Rocket Lab is kind of in the middle of the pack, but it's certainly been a tough time lately for many of these names.
单看 Rocket Lab，我们可以看到，自8月公布财报以来，大部分价格走势都在两条白线之间连接这些连续高点的价格区间内呈下行趋势。
Looking at Rocket Lab alone , we see that most of the price activity since the earnings announcement in August has been trending downwards within this price range between our two white lines connecting these successive peaks.
通过重复这条线并将其置于底部，我们得到一个通道，昨天我们测试了该通道的下沿。我们还可以看到一条更陡峭的蓝色趋势线向下延伸，随着我们临近财报公布。
By repeating this line and placing it at the bottoms. We get a channel whose lower edge we tested yesterday. We can also see a sharper, steeper blue trend line heading downwards as we head towards the earnings announcement.
有一些水平位需要关注。下行方面，首先有一个重要水平。大约一年前，年度最低水平在37.57。这就是我们这里的绿线。我们还有一个反复出现的支撑底部，在大约49水平被跌破。另一个支撑位在大约62处转为阻力位。因此，这些将是许多交易者在下周可能关注的价位。
There are some horizontal levels that need to be monitored. On the downside, firstly, there is one important level. About a year ago, the lowest annual level was at 37.57. This is our green line here.
We also had a recurring support floor that was broken at approximately the 49 level . Another support level turned into a resistance level at approximately 62. Therefore, these will be the levels that many traders may have in mind during the coming week.
我们还可以注意到，我们处于所有移动平均线下方。它们都在向下倾斜。这表明我们正目睹下行趋势加速，因为它们继续相互发散。
We can also note that we are below all of our moving averages. They are all trending downwards. This indicates that we are witnessing an acceleration in the downward trend as they continue to diverge from each other.
然而，财报结果可能是一个催化剂，能够迅速改变许多这些技术读数。所以，目前我们明显看到下行趋势。我们也正在接近30水平，这是表明超卖区的界限。因此，如果财报结果令人失望地低，跌破该区域可能表明有进一步走弱的潜力。
However, earnings results could be a catalyst capable of changing many of these technical readings very quickly . So, at the moment, we are clearly seeing a downward trend. We are also approaching the 30 level, which is the limit that indicates the oversold zone.
Therefore, a move below this area could indicate the potential for further weakness if earnings come in disappointingly low .
现在，如果我们看这里的成交量分布研究，它显示了不同价格水平上的成交量集中度。传统成交量告诉我们交易何时发生。规模分布告诉我们交易发生在哪里。我们可以看到，从这里有一个略低的节点，一个较小的节点在41到44之间。
在早些时候失去控制点之后，我们已经放弃了这里50到56的区域，控制点是历史上最重的交易区域，由我们这里的粗红线定义，在69.54。
Now, if we look at the volume profile study here, it shows the concentration of trading volume at different price levels. Traditional trading volume tells us when trading will occur .
The size profile shows us where that happened . We can see that we have a slightly lower node from here, a smaller node ranging between 41 and 44. We have given up this area here, from 50 to 56, after losing the control point earlier, which is the heaviest trading area of all time , defined by our thick red line here, at 69.54.
重要低点的高成交量通常被解读为买方想要守住的重要区域。任何跌破该水平都可能引发进一步下跌，因为它可能代表买方一直试图坚守的位置。
High volume at significant lows is often interpreted as an important area that buyers want to hold . Any break below this level could lead to further declines, as it could represent a place where buyers have been trying to hold out.
正确。如果我们看这里对未来几天预期走势的图景，以及11月20日期权的到期日，这是我们14天后的下一个月度期权，那么百分比大约是正负20%。对于相对较短的时间段来说，这是一个非常大的数字，表明隐含波动率较高。
correct. If we look here at the picture of our expected movements for the coming days, and the expiry date of the November 20th options, which is our next monthly option in 14 days, then the percentage is plus or minus about 20%.
This is a very large number for a relatively short period of time , indicating higher implied volatility.
所以在这种情况下，我们将考察一笔卖出看跌期权的交易，试图利用这里的一些高波动率。因此，卖出一笔垂直看跌期权，执行价为40和35，到期日为11月20日，权利金收入为120。我们多少期待那些年度低点能守住这里。
中性至看涨的前景。120是我们的最大利润，即我们收到的权利金。380将是我们的最大亏损。这里的风险回报比大约是1比3。我们的盈亏平衡点在38.80，大约下行20.6%。我们的预期波动也大致与此相符。
因此，我们需要比预期更大的波动才会真正开始在这笔交易上亏损，或者大致与预期波动相符的波动。这将是一笔你只需要保持在该水平之上，就能保留所收到权利金的交易。
So in this case, we will examine a put option sale deal to try to take advantage of some of this high volatility here. Therefore, sell a vertical put option with an execution price of 40 and 35 for November 20th, with a credit balance of 120.
We are somewhat looking forward to those annual lows holding here. A neutral to bullish outlook. 120 is our maximum profit, which is the balance we received. 380 would be our maximum loss here.
That is approximately 1 to 3 in terms of risk-reward ratio here. Our breakeven point is at 38.80, which is about 20.6% to the downside. Our expected move is roughly in line with that as well.
Therefore, we would need a move larger than expected to actually start losing on this trade, or a move that is roughly in line with that expected move here. This will be a deal where you just need to stay above this level, and you will be able to keep the credit you received.
观察点
这个频道对 $RKLB 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。