$SHOP

SHOP is near a record high; as retail call buying and the gamma pressure behind the rally run out, a short-term pullback is expected and the speaker is short for a quick drop. A dip to $150-$153 may come in a week or two, though weekly higher lows and highs keep the trend up, and a breakout could add ~$30 to ~$210.

He framed it in weeks
“The Big 3: KSS, SHOP, MSFT”
Schwab NetworkPublished Oct 14 · 7 passages

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7 passages
5:149:02

Don, I want to move on to your second choice here. You have Shopify. The stock has seen strong momentum, but it has also experienced some volatility. The stock has risen since mid-July .

We saw a slight dip in September, but it appears to be recovering strongly again. So, how do you view Shopify now?

This is another opportunity I will take advantage of, which is to open a short selling position, simply because this stock, as I call it, is about to run out. This is directly related to what we are witnessing in the near term, which is known as "gamma pressure".

This means that retail traders rush to buy call options on the underlying asset, forcing market makers, so to speak, to buy the shares. The stock begins to rise sharply.

Shopify's stock has reached its highest level ever, very close to the peak recorded a few years ago, but it appears, once again, that Shopify's momentum has run out. The momentum is fading here , and it could fade very quickly when retailers become disappointed.

They do not necessarily buy call options as they usually do, and again, that balance may run out immediately. Therefore, I am looking, once again, for a quick and short- term decline, of sorts.

In this case, I would reduce the expiry date even further. I will choose October 30th. So, I'm giving myself a very short time here, looking for a quick pullback. On October 30, I will buy put options at 165.

Again, buy put options at 165, and sell put options at 160 for them. It is a large- scale $5 sell strategy, executed at a loss of $1.70. This strategy, again, is about standing in the way of a freight train, but it looks like that train will actually stop.

As I said, the balance is running out, I'm looking for a quick pullback here at Shopify.

So, we have a potential freight train on the loose. Do you also notice a slowdown when looking at the graphs?

It is difficult to say for sure here, but we can identify some support and resistance zones, which may indicate the possibility of a pullback in the near term, during the next week or two.

This stock has clearly experienced significant fluctuations. At this time last year, the stock was trading at around $180, and we saw a sharp decline, especially after the earnings announcement.

The stock managed to break through the resistance level, taking advantage of the 200-day moving average as a resistance zone, and continued to rise. Some buyers entered at around the $94 level in May, and since then, we have seen higher lows, as well as higher highs if we look at this price channel.

This is a relatively positive indicator, and we are approaching the upper limit of resistance when looking at this channel. So, there may be a possible pullback, but if we look at the candle structure , we saw a very strong bullish candle about two days ago.

Yesterday , the candle was closer to a hesitation, or perhaps a doji candle. Today, we are setting the market up for the emergence of a " shooting star" or " inverted hammer" pattern at the top of the trend, which may indicate a downward move.

Another positive factor for this stock is that its 20-day exponential moving average and 20-day simple moving average are both above its 50-day simple moving average. However, there may be a potential pullback, and the price could reach the $150-$153 level as a support zone.

In the event of a breakout, we expect an extension of up to about $30 from the top of this trend, or about $210 upwards. The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) has just passed over the overbought level , and the MACD indicator has started to fluctuate a little, perhaps trying to pull back.

These two indicators suggest that the price momentum, at least in the near term, has somewhat stalled. But we need to see this momentum continue. We also have a price gap that needs to be filled over the next two days.

This could be an attractive area for some sellers who are trying to lower the stock price . Therefore, I would say the trend is still relatively upward, but we may see a pullback during the next three or four sessions before attempting to raise it.

Good. There is a slight difference in technical analysis here. Hey KG, looking at the long- term chart, is it still sending bullish signals? Yes, I think so. I mean, you're recording higher lows and higher highs on the weekly chart.

Well, we have seen some decline here. We are getting very close to the upper limit of the range, but that limit is still around $189 or $190 . The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording higher lows, and the MACD indicator is in an upward trend.

This is a bullish indicator rather than a bearish one. If we close the week in this pattern, the price will be at this level . We explored higher peaks, but we noticed some sellers coming in, so the price closed at a low level at the end of the week.

This gives us the idea that sellers are making profits in the short term, while buyers are trying to get in. But there is still a little room for upward movement before reaching the stop-loss point on the trend line.

What this channel has said about $SHOP

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