SHOP 接近历史新高;随着散户看涨期权买入以及推动上涨的 gamma 压力消退,预计将出现短期回调,说话者做空以博取快速下跌。一两周内可能下探至 $150-$153,不过周线低点和高点不断抬高维持了上升趋势,若突破可能再涨约 $30 至约 $210。
逐段跳播
Don,我想接着谈你这里的第二个选择。你有 Shopify。这只股票势头强劲,但也经历了一些波动。该股自7月中旬以来上涨。我们在9月看到小幅回落,但似乎又强劲复苏。那么,你现在怎么看 Shopify?
Don, I want to move on to your second choice here. You have Shopify. The stock has seen strong momentum, but it has also experienced some volatility. The stock has risen since mid-July .
We saw a slight dip in September, but it appears to be recovering strongly again. So, how do you view Shopify now?
这是我将利用的另一个机会,就是开一个做空仓位,仅仅因为这只股票,正如我所说的,快要耗尽了。这与我们近期目睹的情况直接相关,即所谓的“伽马压力”。这意味着散户交易者蜂拥买入标的资产的看涨期权,迫使做市商,可以说,买入股票。股票开始大幅上涨。
This is another opportunity I will take advantage of, which is to open a short selling position, simply because this stock, as I call it, is about to run out. This is directly related to what we are witnessing in the near term, which is known as "gamma pressure".
This means that retail traders rush to buy call options on the underlying asset, forcing market makers, so to speak, to buy the shares. The stock begins to rise sharply.
Shopify 的股票已达到历史最高水平,非常接近几年前创下的峰值,但看起来,Shopify 的势头又一次耗尽了。这里的势头正在减弱,当散户失望时,它可能会非常迅速地消退。他们不一定像通常那样买入看涨期权,而且,这种平衡可能会立即耗尽。因此,我再次寻找一种快速的短期下跌,诸如此类。
Shopify's stock has reached its highest level ever, very close to the peak recorded a few years ago, but it appears, once again, that Shopify's momentum has run out. The momentum is fading here , and it could fade very quickly when retailers become disappointed.
They do not necessarily buy call options as they usually do, and again, that balance may run out immediately. Therefore, I am looking, once again, for a quick and short- term decline, of sorts.
在这种情况下,我会把到期日进一步缩短。我会选择10月30日。所以,我在这里给自己非常短的时间,寻找快速回调。10月30日,我会买入165的看跌期权。再说一次,买入165的看跌期权,同时卖出160的看跌期权作为对应。
这是一个大规模的5美元卖出策略,以1.70美元的亏损执行。这个策略,还是那句话,是在挡一辆货运列车,但看起来那列车实际上会停下来。正如我所说,平衡正在耗尽,我在 Shopify 这里寻找快速回调。
In this case, I would reduce the expiry date even further. I will choose October 30th. So, I'm giving myself a very short time here, looking for a quick pullback. On October 30, I will buy put options at 165.
Again, buy put options at 165, and sell put options at 160 for them. It is a large- scale $5 sell strategy, executed at a loss of $1.70. This strategy, again, is about standing in the way of a freight train, but it looks like that train will actually stop.
As I said, the balance is running out, I'm looking for a quick pullback here at Shopify.
所以,我们有一辆潜在的货运列车正在失控。你看图表时是否也注意到放缓?
So, we have a potential freight train on the loose. Do you also notice a slowdown when looking at the graphs?
这里很难说得准,但我们可以识别出一些支撑位和阻力位,这可能意味着短期内、也就是未来一两周内存在回调的可能。这只股票明显经历了大幅波动。去年这个时候,股价大约在180美元,我们看到了急剧下跌,尤其是在财报公布之后。
股价成功突破了阻力位,把200日移动均线当作阻力区加以利用,并继续上涨。一些买家在5月于94美元附近入场,自那以后,我们看到低点不断抬高,如果看这个价格通道,高点也在不断抬高。
这是一个相对积极的信号,而看这个通道,我们正接近阻力区的上限。所以,可能会出现回调,但如果看K线结构,大约两天前我们看到一根非常强劲的阳线。昨天,这根K线更接近犹豫形态,或者可能是一根十字星。
今天,我们正在为趋势顶部出现“射击之星”或“倒锤子”形态创造条件,这可能意味着价格将下行。这只股票另一个积极因素是,它的20日指数移动均线和20日简单移动均线都位于50日简单移动均线之上。
不过,仍可能存在回调,价格可能触及150至153美元这一支撑区。如果出现突破,我们预计从这轮趋势顶部向上延伸约30美元,也就是向上到约210美元。相对强弱指数(RSI)刚刚越过超买水平,MACD指标也开始小幅波动,也许是在尝试回落。
这两个指标表明,价格动能至少在短期内已有所停滞。但我们需要看到这种动能延续下去。此外,未来两天还有一个价格缺口需要回补。对一些试图压低股价的卖方来说,这可能是一个有吸引力的区域。
因此,我会说趋势仍相对向上,但在接下来三到四个交易日里,我们可能会看到回调,之后才会尝试推高。
It is difficult to say for sure here, but we can identify some support and resistance zones, which may indicate the possibility of a pullback in the near term, during the next week or two.
This stock has clearly experienced significant fluctuations. At this time last year, the stock was trading at around $180, and we saw a sharp decline, especially after the earnings announcement.
The stock managed to break through the resistance level, taking advantage of the 200-day moving average as a resistance zone, and continued to rise. Some buyers entered at around the $94 level in May, and since then, we have seen higher lows, as well as higher highs if we look at this price channel.
This is a relatively positive indicator, and we are approaching the upper limit of resistance when looking at this channel. So, there may be a possible pullback, but if we look at the candle structure , we saw a very strong bullish candle about two days ago.
Yesterday , the candle was closer to a hesitation, or perhaps a doji candle. Today, we are setting the market up for the emergence of a " shooting star" or " inverted hammer" pattern at the top of the trend, which may indicate a downward move.
Another positive factor for this stock is that its 20-day exponential moving average and 20-day simple moving average are both above its 50-day simple moving average. However, there may be a potential pullback, and the price could reach the $150-$153 level as a support zone.
In the event of a breakout, we expect an extension of up to about $30 from the top of this trend, or about $210 upwards. The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) has just passed over the overbought level , and the MACD indicator has started to fluctuate a little, perhaps trying to pull back.
These two indicators suggest that the price momentum, at least in the near term, has somewhat stalled. But we need to see this momentum continue. We also have a price gap that needs to be filled over the next two days.
This could be an attractive area for some sellers who are trying to lower the stock price . Therefore, I would say the trend is still relatively upward, but we may see a pullback during the next three or four sessions before attempting to raise it.
好。这里技术分析上有一点分歧。嘿,KG,看长期图表,它还在发出看涨信号吗?是的,我认为是这样。我的意思是,你在周线图上看到低点不断抬高、高点也不断抬高。我们在这里确实看到了一些下跌。
我们正非常接近区间的上限,但那个上限仍在189或190美元左右。相对强弱指数(RSI)正在形成更高的低点,MACD指标处于上升趋势。这是看涨信号,而不是看跌信号。如果我们以这种形态收周线,价格就会停在这个水平。
我们曾上探更高的峰值,但注意到有一些卖方进场,所以价格在周末收在低位。这让我们认为,卖方在短期获利了结,而买方在试图入场。但在触及趋势线上的止损点之前,仍有小幅上行空间。
Good. There is a slight difference in technical analysis here. Hey KG, looking at the long- term chart, is it still sending bullish signals? Yes, I think so. I mean, you're recording higher lows and higher highs on the weekly chart.
Well, we have seen some decline here. We are getting very close to the upper limit of the range, but that limit is still around $189 or $190 . The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording higher lows, and the MACD indicator is in an upward trend.
This is a bullish indicator rather than a bearish one. If we close the week in this pattern, the price will be at this level . We explored higher peaks, but we noticed some sellers coming in, so the price closed at a low level at the end of the week.
This gives us the idea that sellers are making profits in the short term, while buyers are trying to get in. But there is still a little room for upward movement before reaching the stop-loss point on the trend line.
这个频道对 $SHOP 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。