T3 Live on $SMH (Oct 26, 2026)
SMH's trend broke July 2nd when money rotated out of semis into software, and it has stayed below the 8-day since; it now barely holds the 200-day. A bounce to the 8-day is possible but would be a broken bounce, and staying below the 200-day for two or three sessions would signal institutions abandoning it.
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The socks yes a lot of guys like Red Dog the semis are 35 40% off the highs. How the freak freaking iced tea is um you know is the spies in the Q's holding up. I'm like you're right something's going to give soon.
You look I I started to really chart the SMH's more than the sockel. You know, here was an awesome trend. Remember this? This was when MU, SanDisk, Intel, everything was great.
You I had I you know, guys were making tons of money. Right here is when that changed. Right here, the 8 and 21 day rule. July 2nd is when the money left the semis and they went to the software and markets rotated.
You had a fast and furious move lower. Then they gave us that little, you know, that little bounce. Um and then and pretty much an island on top and right here changed again and and it's been below the eight days since and SanDisk has not been the place to be.
Muse hasn't been the place to be. Intel even Intel broke down. Everyone's like, well, Intel is the the quality. I'm like, well, you know, you had a great move here again above the 821 day momentum swing trades massaging them.
Look at this bull flag. That was then then this is recently high lower high took out the moving averages. get out of the way. Even though it's Intel and Intel's not even on, I don't think that that that tweet.
Um, so yeah. So, um, Robert saying, "Well, what about the 200 day?" I'm like, "Well, if you sell the 821 day, meaning you get out of your active swing trade when it breaks the 821 day, guess what you could do?
You could test the 200 day with the institutions because the institutions, that's where they come in and support the names that they want to stay with. But if they don't support it at the 200 day and they stay below it for two, three sessions, chances are you don't want to be anywhere near there.
They're losing institution besides momentum. They're losing institutional interest and then they don't deserve your hard-earned money. [snorts] Um so right now for for the SMH's um you could get a broken bounce back to the 8day, which sometimes happens.
Um but it's it's barely holding the 200 day here.
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