$SMH · T3 Live · 2026-10-26
SMH的趋势在7月2日资金从半导体轮动至软件时被打破，此后一直位于8日线下方；目前勉强守住200日线。反弹至8日线是可能的，但那将是破位后的反弹，而若连续两三个交易日位于200日线下方，将意味着机构正在抛弃它。
逐段跳播
半导体，是的，很多人喜欢红狗，半导体已经从高点下跌了35%到40%。那该死的冰茶，SPY 和 QQQ 怎么还撑得住？我说，你说得对，迟早会有东西撑不住。你看，我开始更多地画 SMH 的图，而不是 SOXL。
你看，这里曾是一条很棒的上升趋势。还记得吗？那时候 MU、SanDisk、Intel，所有股票都很好。那时候大家都在赚大钱。就在这里，情况变了。就在这里，8日和21日规则。7月2日资金离开了半导体，转向软件，市场发生了轮动。
你经历了一波又快又猛的下跌。然后它们给了我们那个小反弹。然后基本上在高位形成一个孤岛，就在这里又变了，从那以后一直在8日线下方，SanDisk 已经不是该待的地方了。Muse 也不是该待的地方。
Intel，连 Intel 都跌破了。大家都说，Intel 是质量股。我说，你在这里又有一波很棒的上涨，站上8日和21日线，动量波段交易，反复揉搓它们。看这个牛旗。那是当时，然后这是最近，高点降低，跌破了移动平均线，赶紧让开。
即使它是 Intel，而且我觉得那条推文甚至都不是关于 Intel 的。所以，是的。Robert 说：“那200日线呢？”我说，如果你在跌破8日和21日线时卖出，也就是在跌破8日和21日线时退出你的活跃波段交易，你猜你能做什么？
你可以和机构一起测试200日线，因为机构就是在那裡进场，支撑他们想继续持有的股票。但如果他们在200日线不支撑，股价在200日线下方待了两三个交易日，那大概率你根本不想靠近它。
他们失去了机构，除了动量之外，他们还失去了机构兴趣，那他们就不配拥有你辛苦赚来的钱。所以现在对于 SMH，你可能会看到一个跌破后的反弹回到8日线，这有时会发生。但它在这里勉强守住200日线。
The socks yes a lot of guys like Red Dog the semis are 35 40% off the highs. How the freak freaking iced tea is um you know is the spies in the Q's holding up. I'm like you're right something's going to give soon.
You look I I started to really chart the SMH's more than the sockel. You know, here was an awesome trend. Remember this? This was when MU, SanDisk, Intel, everything was great.
You I had I you know, guys were making tons of money. Right here is when that changed. Right here, the 8 and 21 day rule. July 2nd is when the money left the semis and they went to the software and markets rotated.
You had a fast and furious move lower. Then they gave us that little, you know, that little bounce. Um and then and pretty much an island on top and right here changed again and and it's been below the eight days since and SanDisk has not been the place to be.
Muse hasn't been the place to be. Intel even Intel broke down. Everyone's like, well, Intel is the the quality. I'm like, well, you know, you had a great move here again above the 821 day momentum swing trades massaging them.
Look at this bull flag. That was then then this is recently high lower high took out the moving averages. get out of the way. Even though it's Intel and Intel's not even on, I don't think that that that tweet.
Um, so yeah. So, um, Robert saying, "Well, what about the 200 day?" I'm like, "Well, if you sell the 821 day, meaning you get out of your active swing trade when it breaks the 821 day, guess what you could do?
You could test the 200 day with the institutions because the institutions, that's where they come in and support the names that they want to stay with. But if they don't support it at the 200 day and they stay below it for two, three sessions, chances are you don't want to be anywhere near there.
They're losing institution besides momentum. They're losing institutional interest and then they don't deserve your hard-earned money. [snorts] Um so right now for for the SMH's um you could get a broken bounce back to the 8day, which sometimes happens.
Um but it's it's barely holding the 200 day here.
观察点
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
T3 Live 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。