SOFI is highly undervalued at $15, a level it has rarely closed below over the past year; its all-in-one platform, low customer-acquisition cost and high lifetime value should let it outperform many stocks, including some AI names, over 5-10 years. It could reach $27-$29, but timing is unknown.
Jump to any passage
I've talked a lot about this stock on the channel and there's some disappointment with SoFi. And I've talked about the sofa for years and I bought it when it was in single digits.
I held it until it reached the upper 20s. Now, this is causing some pain. I won't lie. I am using the wheel strategy. I am selling options. I'm actually quite happy, but the sofa fell a little below my expectations.
It's not a big deal for me, but it's a bit painful.
But the way I look at it now, despite the past hardships, it's really just a sunk cost, right? Consequences or losses are one thing, suppose you are going from Philadelphia to New York City and you lose your train ticket; You definitely won't cry over that lost ticket.
Your decision is still to go to New York City. You have to buy a new ticket, okay? So, if I say my average cost is very low, it's because I sell options regularly in my community and am making a good income from it.
So, it's not a very high average cost for me. I've reduced my average cost by about a dollar per month, because I earn a dollar every time I sell an option. This effectively gradually reduces your average cost.
So, if SoFi has stayed the same for the past 6 months, my spending has actually decreased by $6. So, technically my average spend on SoFi is now down to single digits and my community is in pretty good shape.
However, if you are new to the market or have purchased a sofa at a very high price and have not followed the strategy I taught, then let's discuss the current situation of the sofa.
SoFi was originally known for student loan refinancing, but today it is essentially building an all-in-one financial platform. That's what I like best. The business is actually very strong, but the stock market is not reflecting that.
To be honest, I don't know how long it will take for the stock price to reach my expected price, i.e., $27, $28, or $29. And I'm not worried about it, because selling options while waiting has been profitable for me.
What I like most about Sofi is that you can bank, borrow money, refinance loans, invest, use credit cards, get a mortgage, and manage your financial life all within one ecosystem.
In my opinion, this is the strongest aspect of the sofa.
It's a lot like Amazon, right? Of course, when you look at its share performance, it doesn't look very promising. However, for those looking for quick profits or short-term returns, no one can accurately predict the market in the short term.
Anyone who claims they can is lying; It's impossible, right? So, a sofa under $15 sounds great to me, which to me is literally ridiculous. Honestly, I can't express in words how cheap this stock is.
SoFi costs very little to add a member, and once that person is in their ecosystem, their goal is to sell them other financial products over time. They have been very successful in this work.
Maybe someone first comes to SoFi for a checking account, but later they open an investment account, then get a credit card, a personal loan, a mortgage, and even SoFi has the benefits of options trading level two.
Therefore, the LTV or lifetime value of a SoFi customer is much higher than their initial cost, because they acquire customers at very low cost and there is not much profit from a checking account.
But, once they commit to a long-term service like a mortgage, it begins a long-term relationship.
So, I think SoFi will do better than many stocks in the next 5 to 10 years, even outperforming some AI stocks, because some AI stocks will collapse. Honestly, it's not like the entire AI world will be successful, right?
So, when I look at SoFi, I think they have more future continuity than many of the hyped AI stocks on the market.
However, when I look at SoFi, I realize that the relationship they have with the customer that I was talking about through LTV becomes extremely valuable over time, where SoFi doesn't have to reacquire the same person over and over again.
And this is very important because it will be reflected in their financial statements. When you have to constantly run ads to get new customers, it's quite expensive, right? Typically, ROAS or return on advertising spend is such that for every dollar you spend, large corporations or businesses, even small businesses, typically get three times the return, right?
So, when you spend one dollar on Facebook or YouTube advertising and get three dollars in return, it's possible to scale that business model. SoFi's numbers are so great because they are acquiring customers very cheaply and their LTV is so high that they can continually add more customers.
They have SoFi Stadium and I see them investing a lot more in their marketing. Marketing is the engine of any business. Unfortunately, whether a business's product is good or bad often doesn't matter much.
How many times have you seen that the quality of the product is poor, yet the business has grown huge, right? Unfortunately, this happens all too often. The reason for this is that it's not the product, but the sales and marketing that really matter.
SoFi has caught on and I think there is a huge disconnect between what investors are seeing in the market and what SoFi is going to do with their customers' LTV.
So to me, their product adoption is a very important number, with 51% of new products being opened by existing Sofai members. So, this is one of the most important numbers, because you can run ads all day, but how your product looks is also very important.
And when you get both, it's a very powerful combination.
In addition to its customer and consumer businesses, Sofie owns technologies like Galileo, which provides financial infrastructure to other companies. The long-term key is not just that SoFi is lending more, but that SoFi can become a larger financial ecosystem with multiple avenues of revenue.
Its main goal is to quickly increase their membership.
Anyway, let's get to the financial issues. SoFi's most recent quarter generated consolidated net revenue of nearly $1.2 billion, up 40% from the previous year. Net income for the quarter was approximately $157 million, while consolidated EBITDA increased 44% to a record $358 million.
Now let's move on to technical analysis. Okay friends, here is the chart for Sophie. Sophie's chart looks quite interesting. The stock basically went nowhere. I mean, the stock has been trading in a range for the past 6 months, which I like about Sophie because I'm using a 'wheel strategy', selling puts to enter and covered calls to exit, which is why I'm making great profits through the ups and downs.
Honestly, it's a very profitable and great stock to trade.
Now SoFi is at $15 per share and honestly, it's at its lowest point right now. It really feels like a floor. This is almost the floor or minimum limit. So if I go to the 1-year chart, I want to show you what happened in the last 1 year.
You will see a very, very strong foundation here. This foundation has been in place since March. Since March, the stock hasn't moved much at $15 per share, and that's a great thing.
This is great for option sellers. If you are a stock investor, you are very disappointed with SoFi. And if you are an options seller—by the way, I have a recent video on my YouTube channel with a full course on options selling techniques and step-by-step examples that you can check out.
This is a video from just a few days ago. But if you look at option selling now, the subject is very interesting in SoFi. $15 per share is the price below which the stock usually does not fall.
I mean, it's true that it went down a bit, but it has rarely closed below $15 in the last 1 year. So, I see it as a highly undervalued stock.
But if you look at option selling now , the subject is very interesting in SoFi. $15 per share is the price below which the stock usually does not fall. I mean, it's true that it went down a bit, but it has rarely closed below $15 in the last 1 year.
What this channel has said about $SOFI
Invest with Henry has 9 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.