$SOFI

SOFI 在 15 美元时被严重低估,过去一年其收盘价极少低于该水平;其一站式平台、低客户获取成本和高客户终身价值应使其在 5-10 年内跑赢许多股票,包括部分 AI 股。它可能达到 27-29 美元,但时间点未知。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Every Stock I'm Buying in This Pullback (5 New Buys)》
Invest with Henry发布 2026-10-17 · 16 段内容
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16 段内容
16:2723:11

我在频道里多次谈到这只股票,对 SoFi 有些失望。我多年来一直在谈 SoFi,我在它还是个位数价格时买入,一直持有到它涨到 20 多美元的高位。现在,这让我有些痛苦,我不否认。

我在用 wheel 策略,我在卖出期权,其实我挺满意的,但 SoFi 的表现略低于我的预期。对我来说这不是什么大事,但还是有点痛苦。

I've talked a lot about this stock on the channel and there's some disappointment with SoFi. And I've talked about the sofa for years and I bought it when it was in single digits.

I held it until it reached the upper 20s. Now, this is causing some pain. I won't lie. I am using the wheel strategy. I am selling options. I'm actually quite happy, but the sofa fell a little below my expectations.

It's not a big deal for me, but it's a bit painful.

但我现在看这件事,尽管过去有困难,这其实只是沉没成本,对吧?后果或损失是一回事,假设你从费城去纽约市,你丢了火车票;你肯定不会为那张丢了的票哭。你的决定仍然是去纽约市,你得买张新票,对吧?

所以,如果我说我的平均成本很低,那是因为我在我的社群里定期卖出期权,并从中获得不错的收入。所以,对我来说平均成本并不高。我每个月把平均成本降低大约一美元,因为我每次卖出期权都能赚一美元。

这实际上逐渐降低了你的平均成本。所以,如果 SoFi 在过去 6 个月保持不变,我的支出实际上减少了 6 美元。所以,严格来说,我现在在 SoFi 上的平均支出已经降到个位数,我的社群状况也相当不错。

But the way I look at it now, despite the past hardships, it's really just a sunk cost, right? Consequences or losses are one thing, suppose you are going from Philadelphia to New York City and you lose your train ticket; You definitely won't cry over that lost ticket.

Your decision is still to go to New York City. You have to buy a new ticket, okay? So, if I say my average cost is very low, it's because I sell options regularly in my community and am making a good income from it.

So, it's not a very high average cost for me. I've reduced my average cost by about a dollar per month, because I earn a dollar every time I sell an option. This effectively gradually reduces your average cost.

So, if SoFi has stayed the same for the past 6 months, my spending has actually decreased by $6. So, technically my average spend on SoFi is now down to single digits and my community is in pretty good shape.

然而,如果你是市场新手,或者以非常高的价格买入了 SoFi,并且没有遵循我教的策略,那我们来讨论一下 SoFi 的现状。SoFi 最初以学生贷款再融资闻名,但如今它基本上是在打造一个一体化的金融平台。

这是我最喜欢的地方。业务实际上非常强劲,但股市并没有反映出这一点。

However, if you are new to the market or have purchased a sofa at a very high price and have not followed the strategy I taught, then let's discuss the current situation of the sofa.

SoFi was originally known for student loan refinancing, but today it is essentially building an all-in-one financial platform. That's what I like best. The business is actually very strong, but the stock market is not reflecting that.

说实话,我不知道股价需要多长时间才能达到我的预期价格,也就是 27 美元、28 美元或 29 美元。我并不担心,因为在等待期间卖出期权一直让我盈利。

To be honest, I don't know how long it will take for the stock price to reach my expected price, i.e., $27, $28, or $29. And I'm not worried about it, because selling options while waiting has been profitable for me.

我最喜欢 SoFi 的地方是,你可以在一个生态系统内办理银行业务、借钱、贷款再融资、投资、使用信用卡、办理抵押贷款,并管理你的财务生活。在我看来,这是 SoFi 最强的一面。

What I like most about Sofi is that you can bank, borrow money, refinance loans, invest, use credit cards, get a mortgage, and manage your financial life all within one ecosystem.

In my opinion, this is the strongest aspect of the sofa.

这很像 Amazon,对吧?当然,看它的股价表现,看起来并不太有希望。然而,对于那些寻求快速利润或短期回报的人来说,没有人能准确预测短期市场。任何声称能做到的人都是在撒谎;这不可能,对吧?

所以,15 美元以下的 SoFi 在我看来很棒,对我来说这简直荒谬。老实说,我无法用语言表达这只股票有多便宜。

It's a lot like Amazon, right? Of course, when you look at its share performance, it doesn't look very promising. However, for those looking for quick profits or short-term returns, no one can accurately predict the market in the short term.

Anyone who claims they can is lying; It's impossible, right? So, a sofa under $15 sounds great to me, which to me is literally ridiculous. Honestly, I can't express in words how cheap this stock is.

SoFi 增加一个会员的成本非常低,一旦这个人进入他们的生态系统,他们的目标就是随着时间的推移向他们销售其他金融产品。他们在这方面非常成功。也许有人最初来 SoFi 是为了开一个支票账户,但后来他们开了投资账户,然后办了信用卡、个人贷款、抵押贷款,甚至 SoFi 还有期权交易二级的福利。

因此,SoFi 客户的 LTV 或终身价值远高于他们的初始成本,因为他们以非常低的成本获取客户,而支票账户的利润并不高。但是,一旦他们承诺了像抵押贷款这样的长期服务,就开启了一段长期关系。

SoFi costs very little to add a member, and once that person is in their ecosystem, their goal is to sell them other financial products over time. They have been very successful in this work.

Maybe someone first comes to SoFi for a checking account, but later they open an investment account, then get a credit card, a personal loan, a mortgage, and even SoFi has the benefits of options trading level two.

Therefore, the LTV or lifetime value of a SoFi customer is much higher than their initial cost, because they acquire customers at very low cost and there is not much profit from a checking account.

But, once they commit to a long-term service like a mortgage, it begins a long-term relationship.

所以,我认为 SoFi 在未来 5 到 10 年将比许多股票表现更好,甚至跑赢一些 AI 股票,因为一些 AI 股票会崩盘。老实说,并不是整个 AI 世界都会成功,对吧?所以,当我看 SoFi 时,我认为它们比市场上许多被炒作的 AI 股票具有更强的未来持续性。

So, I think SoFi will do better than many stocks in the next 5 to 10 years, even outperforming some AI stocks, because some AI stocks will collapse. Honestly, it's not like the entire AI world will be successful, right?

So, when I look at SoFi, I think they have more future continuity than many of the hyped AI stocks on the market.

然而,当我看 SoFi 时,我意识到我之前通过 LTV 谈到的他们与客户的关系随着时间的推移变得极其有价值,SoFi 不必一遍又一遍地重新获取同一个人。这非常重要,因为它会反映在他们的财务报表中。

当你必须不断投放广告来获取新客户时,成本相当高,对吧?通常,ROAS 或广告支出回报率是这样的:你每花一美元,大公司或企业,甚至小企业,通常能获得三倍的回报,对吧?所以,当你在 Facebook 或 YouTube 广告上花一美元并获得三美元回报时,就有可能扩大这种商业模式。

SoFi 的数据如此之好,是因为他们以非常低的成本获取客户,而且他们的 LTV 如此之高,以至于他们可以不断添加更多客户。

However, when I look at SoFi, I realize that the relationship they have with the customer that I was talking about through LTV becomes extremely valuable over time, where SoFi doesn't have to reacquire the same person over and over again.

And this is very important because it will be reflected in their financial statements. When you have to constantly run ads to get new customers, it's quite expensive, right? Typically, ROAS or return on advertising spend is such that for every dollar you spend, large corporations or businesses, even small businesses, typically get three times the return, right?

So, when you spend one dollar on Facebook or YouTube advertising and get three dollars in return, it's possible to scale that business model. SoFi's numbers are so great because they are acquiring customers very cheaply and their LTV is so high that they can continually add more customers.

他们有 SoFi 体育场,我看到他们在营销上投入更多。营销是任何企业的引擎。不幸的是,一个企业的产品是好是坏往往并不重要。你见过多少次产品质量很差,但企业却发展得巨大,对吧?不幸的是,这种情况太常见了。

原因是真正重要的不是产品,而是销售和营销。SoFi 已经明白了这一点,我认为投资者在市场上看到的情况与 SoFi 将利用其客户 LTV 做的事情之间存在巨大的脱节。

They have SoFi Stadium and I see them investing a lot more in their marketing. Marketing is the engine of any business. Unfortunately, whether a business's product is good or bad often doesn't matter much.

How many times have you seen that the quality of the product is poor, yet the business has grown huge, right? Unfortunately, this happens all too often. The reason for this is that it's not the product, but the sales and marketing that really matter.

SoFi has caught on and I think there is a huge disconnect between what investors are seeing in the market and what SoFi is going to do with their customers' LTV.

所以对我来说,他们的产品采用率是一个非常重要的数字,51% 的新产品是由现有 SoFi 会员开设的。所以,这是最重要的数字之一,因为你可以整天投放广告,但你的产品看起来如何也非常重要。当你两者兼得时,就是一个非常强大的组合。

So to me, their product adoption is a very important number, with 51% of new products being opened by existing Sofai members. So, this is one of the most important numbers, because you can run ads all day, but how your product looks is also very important.

And when you get both, it's a very powerful combination.

除了客户和消费者业务外,SoFi 还拥有像 Galileo 这样的技术,为其他公司提供金融基础设施。长期的关键不仅仅是 SoFi 放贷更多,而是 SoFi 能够成为一个拥有多种收入渠道的更大金融生态系统。其主要目标是快速增加他们的会员。

In addition to its customer and consumer businesses, Sofie owns technologies like Galileo, which provides financial infrastructure to other companies. The long-term key is not just that SoFi is lending more, but that SoFi can become a larger financial ecosystem with multiple avenues of revenue.

Its main goal is to quickly increase their membership.

总之,我们来看看财务问题。SoFi 最近一个季度产生了近 12 亿美元的合并净收入,同比增长 40%。该季度净利润约为 1.57 亿美元,而合并 EBITDA 增长了 44%,达到创纪录的 3.58 亿美元。

Anyway, let's get to the financial issues. SoFi's most recent quarter generated consolidated net revenue of nearly $1.2 billion, up 40% from the previous year. Net income for the quarter was approximately $157 million, while consolidated EBITDA increased 44% to a record $358 million.

现在让我们进入技术分析。好了朋友们,这是 SoFi 的图表。SoFi 的图表看起来相当有趣。该股基本上没有太大波动。我的意思是,该股在过去 6 个月一直在区间内交易,这是我喜欢 SoFi 的地方,因为我使用“wheel 策略”,卖出看跌期权入场,卖出备兑看涨期权出场,这就是为什么我通过涨跌赚取了丰厚的利润。

老实说,这是一只非常有利可图且适合交易的好股票。

Now let's move on to technical analysis. Okay friends, here is the chart for Sophie. Sophie's chart looks quite interesting. The stock basically went nowhere. I mean, the stock has been trading in a range for the past 6 months, which I like about Sophie because I'm using a 'wheel strategy', selling puts to enter and covered calls to exit, which is why I'm making great profits through the ups and downs.

Honestly, it's a very profitable and great stock to trade.

现在 SoFi 每股 15 美元,老实说,它现在处于最低点。真的感觉像是一个底部。这几乎是底部或最低极限。所以如果我看看 1 年图表,我想向你们展示过去 1 年发生了什么。你会在这里看到一个非常非常强劲的基础。

这个基础自 3 月以来一直存在。自 3 月以来,该股在每股 15 美元附近没有太大变动,这是一件好事。这对期权卖方来说很棒。如果你是股票投资者,你对 SoFi 非常失望。而如果你是期权卖方——顺便说一句,我最近在 YouTube 频道上有一个视频,包含期权卖出技巧的完整课程和分步示例,你可以去看看。

这是几天前的视频。但如果你现在看期权卖出,SoFi 这个标的非常有趣。每股 15 美元是该股通常不会跌破的价格。我的意思是,它确实下跌了一点,但在过去 1 年里很少收于 15 美元以下。所以,我认为它是一只被高度低估的股票。

Now SoFi is at $15 per share and honestly, it's at its lowest point right now. It really feels like a floor. This is almost the floor or minimum limit. So if I go to the 1-year chart, I want to show you what happened in the last 1 year.

You will see a very, very strong foundation here. This foundation has been in place since March. Since March, the stock hasn't moved much at $15 per share, and that's a great thing.

This is great for option sellers. If you are a stock investor, you are very disappointed with SoFi. And if you are an options seller—by the way, I have a recent video on my YouTube channel with a full course on options selling techniques and step-by-step examples that you can check out.

This is a video from just a few days ago. But if you look at option selling now, the subject is very interesting in SoFi. $15 per share is the price below which the stock usually does not fall.

I mean, it's true that it went down a bit, but it has rarely closed below $15 in the last 1 year. So, I see it as a highly undervalued stock.

但如果你现在看期权卖出,SoFi 这个标的非常有趣。每股 15 美元是该股通常不会跌破的价格。我的意思是,它确实下跌了一点,但在过去 1 年里很少收于 15 美元以下。

But if you look at option selling now , the subject is very interesting in SoFi. $15 per share is the price below which the stock usually does not fall. I mean, it's true that it went down a bit, but it has rarely closed below $15 in the last 1 year.

这个频道对 $SOFI 的历次判断

Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 9 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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