$SPY

S&P 500 is technically constructive and slightly bullish medium-term, but faces potential short-term correction due to daily cycle maturity.

Bullish
“US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPX NDX RUT & VIX Price Projections & Cycle Timing”
Steve MillerPublished Oct 3 · 7 passages

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7 passages
0:098:21

This is the Russell indicator on the weekly timeframe. It has suffered far greater technical damage than the S&P or Nasdaq indices.

So we will turn to the S&P 500 index to see how it differs on the weekly timeframe. Unlike Russell, the larger S&P structure is still under construction. The price continues to maintain its levels near recent highs and above its important weekly moving averages .

So, while we saw a decline below the surface of the market, the weekly S&P index did not collapse in the same way. This is an important part of the variation.

The only thing we would like to draw your attention to here is the "Reversal Scout" indicator. It's very flat now. So it wouldn't take much to push him back towards positivity, but he has turned negative at the moment.

Here is the daily chart for the S&P 500. It is still rising today, but has retreated from its previous high as Treasury yields have begun to rise again. Unlike the Russell index, there was no major technical damage here.

We have seen this drop to the bottom of the support zone. That support zone held firm and we got a bounce from there. The momentum remains positive in both our "Reflection Detector" and the "Slim Tape".

What we have now is a daily cycle that has reached maturity. We are approaching that downward phase as the peak time approaches. Therefore, the question here is different from the question of the "Russell" index.

We do not expect the S &P index to fix a broken structure. We are watching to see if it can continue to rise above these resistance levels , or if it will start to pull back, giving us some sort of noticeable correction at this time before the next daily cycle begins .

The S &P 500 remains technically constructive, but beneath these indicators, we have seen a much more significant deterioration in the Russell and Dow indices. If Treasury bond prices continue to fall and yields rise again, we will be watching to see whether this pressure remains concentrated in the weaker parts of the market as we have seen so far, or whether it will start to spread to the S&P and Nasdaq indices.

The S&P index is slightly bullish in the medium term and only bullish in the short and near term with the rebound we saw today.

What this channel has said about $SPY

Steve Miller has 7 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

2026-10-03BullishThis one
This is the Russell indicator on the weekly timeframe. It has suffered far greater technical damage than the S&P or Nasdaq indices.
Direction flip
2026-09-19Bearish
Now, let's begin this analysis of the stock market, starting with the S&P 500 index.
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