Tesla exceeded delivery expectations, causing a 5% stock rise and significant volatility.

Tesla has just exceeded delivery expectations. We need to talk about what this means for Tesla's stock, because Tesla is experiencing significant volatility today. It included optimistic forecasts regarding Tesla's stock.

Those were optimistic predictions about Tesla, and here we are. Tesla has just exceeded delivery expectations spectacularly. The stock rose by 5%

and there is a correlation of approximately 70% when Tesla rises, SpaceX also rises. So SpaceX is currently rising mainly because Tesla is on the rise. I mean, the graphs here are almost perfect.

I personally believe that people have something like an "Elon basket," so if they are optimistic about Elon, they buy his stocks. If they are pessimistic, they sell their shares.

But it's good to know in case you're wondering, "What's happening with SpaceX today?" It's because of Tesla's rise, okay ? But what happened with Tesla, and what should we consider regarding the stock price?

Why does this matter to Tesla? Is it just another set of deliveries ? Well, this is extremely important because the automotive sector is at the heart of Tesla's business.

What's really crazy is that when you compare it to last year, the third quarter was crucial. Why? Because you probably don't remember it, but I do . Extremely, extremely important .

Last year , the third quarter was the last opportunity to take advantage of tax breaks for electric vehicles. So, September 30th of last year was a milestone for Tesla, and we anticipated a lot of demand for Tesla cars .

Well, that showed us 497,099 deliveries. That was what we achieved in the third quarter of last year. Good? We just received 486,532 deliveries. Now, yes, that number is lower.

Oh, I completely forgot a number here. Here it is. 486. 486,532 divided by 497,099. This means we are now 2.13% away from the previous year's figures excluding tax breaks. This is absolute madness.

You're talking about an actual increase, okay? Tesla cars have seen an actual price increase of $7,500. We are literally within the 2.13% range. You know what that means to me, don't you?

Immense power. Yes, yes. This is honestly very, very powerful for Tesla. This is what I call tremendous power, my dear. Immense power.

Now , why does this matter so much? Why do we care? I thought Tesla was all about "Optimus" or " CyberCab" or something else. Look, CyberCap has a lot of work ahead of it, because we need to squeeze in the timeframe to run CyberCap in different cities across the country, and then in different countries eventually.

That will take time. But do you really understand what " CyberCap" is? Fleet sales are no longer relevant . That will matter in the future. Do you know what CyberCap is doing from now until then?

Think about it. It's a free advertisement. Everyone says, "Look at that Cyber Cab. It looks crazy. Oh, I heard it drives itself . What? Yeah, they have some versions without a steering wheel."

"Oh my god. Can I buy a Tesla?" Well, you can't buy a Cyber Cab yet, but you can buy a Model Y or a Model 3 and get Full Self-Driving (FSD), and I'll pay monthly for that and add more annual recurring revenue to Tesla.

You can buy that now if you want, you know. There is stock available if you just want to head to a dealer, a Tesla store, or go online and buy it now. You can drive the car, you can even have the car drive you home now.

It's the best brand ever, bro. She is a genius in every sense of the word . It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter that the "Cyber Truck " doesn't operate everywhere right now. It's propaganda.

Therefore, they are deploying these vehicles everywhere.

What next? I mean, this is absolutely fantastic. So, I'm very excited about what this means for the largest sector of the business. It exceeded expectations by about 5%. But, you should...we should look at the actual data table here. For the largest sector of the workforce.

I want to be optimistic about Tesla. We even have "Tesla" as an example here. Look at this. This will be an example of some of the things you will receive. In 96% of the times this has occurred, Tesla's stock has risen by 30% within 60 days.

In short, buy when the price is low. The setup is ready for implementation, isn't it?

And we're ending it just like they did... Do you know how they canceled lifetime access to the full self-driving program ? Now you have to pay monthly for full self-driving. This is the same thing we will do with this product.

But, you know, Tesla has effectively switched to an annual recurring revenue (ARR) model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, and that's actually very smart, because now when they acquire new subscribers in addition to their annual system income of nearly $750 million, you would expect that to be a net revenue stream that keeps flowing .

This is very exciting because annual recurring revenues get a higher multiplier on Wall Street. So, it's great.

let's take a look at the SpaceX and Tesla data tables . People forget. They are very excited about the operating income of the "Optimus" robot and the operating income of the "Simi" truck.

My table here refers to the operating income from the " Simi" truck. From the Full Self-Driving System (FSD), revenue could grow to $2.5 billion. The "Simi" truck could reach 4.2 billion.

And for the Tesla robot, I put 1.5 billion here. It's a simple thing, you know, it doesn't matter much. Perhaps "Simi" and the robot will be separated. It doesn't matter. The point is that people don't realize that all these numbers are just a small part of the operating income you get from selling cars.

Now, to be fair , the margins I've listed here are high for Cybertruck fleet sales in 2030. But if you reduce those margins to, say, 20%, the operating income would still be $27.5 billion from selling 4 million vehicles, and that comes from selling cars.

My expectation for this company is that you should be selling cars. The more of these cars you sell, the more profits this company will ultimately make. Therefore, I want to see vehicle deliveries rise from 2 million cars per year to 4 million.

Now, we still have some work to do, because even at the rate we are going at now, multiplied by 4, we are only standing at about 2 million, or approximately 1.93 , right? This is not great.

We still have work to do. But it's okay, it's coming. This is a sign of pricing power. The bottom-up phase is now underway for this company. It's extremely exciting.

So, my projection for this is that at a current value of 375, let's say, if it can reach $824 per share by the end of 2030, this actually gives you a return rate of around 20%, which, you know, I'm a little biased, but I think my small startup would far outperform that.

But of course, my startup is not a $1.5 trillion company. It's just a small startup company . You expect them to grow even more, but the point is that for a big company like this, that's really good, you know, at a compound annual growth rate if they can achieve some of these things.

Now, obviously, if you come here and discount this, you know, if I say I can only get or acquire 30%. If I can only achieve a 24% profit margin on those vehicle deliveries, you know, then we're down to a compound annual return of approximately 16%.

So, we can play around with this, you know, I can go in here and leave it at 30 and cancel the Tesla Bot and cancel the half-ton pickup, and I still get about 18%. So, there is some real potential for the stock.

But, the process of reaching the bottom now, if we look at the technical aspects, I think the next stop for Tesla in the Iran deal is to reach 414. So, reaching the Iran deal at the 414 level is essential .

And if you look at Tesla's stock from a distance, you can see that we were coming down here, sorry, that's what's meant here. We've been going down a bit in the last few days , but we've really settled above 347, which is great because for a brief period, this was due to the Leopold liquidation.

That was a discount. It was a great opportunity to lose that purple line here. However, the 347 level was very stable. We just bounced back from it again here. The next line is 414.

I think we'll be heading there soon enough. So, I think this is very interesting. And I think it's good for Tesla, it's a victory for Tesla.

Bloomberg argues that there are some risks related to China, and I agree with that. China has been a major source of Tesla vehicles; as you know, Shanghai produced 66,000 vehicles in July alone, which means, in a quarter, nearly 200,000 vehicles coming from the Shanghai facility alone.

Energy storage was missing, and I have to say I was a little disappointed by the lack of energy storage. I tweeted a picture of myself in front of the Tesla Powerwall, because we just installed it , paid for it, got the permits and everything for it .

But I think it's very cool. I will show you this. This one says "My home". It's not actually my home. I should ... maybe I can figure out how to rename it. But let's see what's happening now at the virtual power station—in parentheses—in California.

As you can see now, this building is operating at a consumption of 6.1 kilowatts. I have 1.3 kilowatts going to Powerwall, which is part of the solar power that is being generated now .

So, we recharge the Powerwall, because we usually use it when the tariff is at its highest , between 4:00 and 8:00 PM, around that time . But I mean, they're doing a great job here in the app.

I really enjoy how they built this. It's much better , I mean I hate to say it, but it's much better than the Enphase app . I have...and here's the problem, Envis's "Enlighten" app doesn't have Tesla's appeal.

And now it appears you can connect your Cybertruck to provide a backup battery for the home, which is also interesting. I wonder if this might work, because at home I have an Invis system , so I can compare .

I mean, in the end, it's all the same. Tesla puts Chinese batteries in its battery packs , and the solar panels may also be Chinese. I have Q cells, which are German cells, in this house where I am now.

But we have different matrices, which is really annoying. Look, they did n't collect my locations. So in the Invis app, I have " Kevin 1" and "Kevin 2" as home locations, even though they are in the same damn property, because we added panels at some point.

Simply put... the app seems heavy. It's not good enough. Let me see. I don't think this shows anything special. Whatever the case may be. So , this is...this is the Invis app. It's simply not quite as great , is it?

Shipping at 41%, production, unloading, whatever. Well, it's hard for me to know. What does live status do? Connecting to the gateway. Oh my God, man. It's annoyingly slow. Look at this.

Look at that nonsense. It makes me want to throw up.

So, yes. Both of these things, by the way, are worth noting are sensitive to interest rates, aren't they? So, if my prediction is correct that we are at peak returns, then the connection failed.

Of course, the connection failed, you idiot. A foolish loser. Anyway. If this is true, and if my prediction that we are at peak returns is ultimately correct, then Tesla is benefiting from it.

Because my predictions say that 5.27 is the peak of returns. 5.27, we are at 5.26 now, approximately. I believe that 5.27 is the peak of returns. If this is true and we end up with it , what is it called?

We ended up reaching an agreement with Iran, and then Tesla took off like a rocket.

I mean, even Tesla failed to meet its gigawatt predictions. They expected well, they got 13.7 gigawatts, and they expected or they failed by 14%.

I mean, Tesla is like a 10 out of 10, you know, Sarah Eisen-level appeal. By the way, if you'd like, I have a link to a Tesla company, and this video is not sponsored by Tesla.

I'm just saying if you want referral discounts, I use them to buy Tesla shirts or hats or whatever.

Here, you get referral benefits for either cars or a $400 discount on solar panels or Powerwall.

Now, regarding another Bloomberg article predicting a decline in Tesla shares, it indicates that Tesla, Toyota, and Hyundai face the risk of losing about 12% and 10% of market share in European sales next year if Chinese companies increase their share by about 5%.

Basically, there is a risk you need to be aware of regarding Tesla, which is yes, there is real Chinese competition. Does anyone really have competition for Tesla when it comes to full self-driving?

No, not yet. The competition will come, but we have been waiting for it for years and it still hasn't arrived. Therefore, Tesla is performing very well by maintaining its lead.

Yes, the Chinese threat is a real threat. It's dangerous in America too. If the Chinese start selling cars in America, it will create potential problems. Regarding Tesla's valuation, it remains high.

Keep in mind also that Europe accounts for approximately 17% of Tesla's sales. So, as you know, it's not the biggest part of Tesla. It's not that big of a deal . But as you know , Chinese competition, if it reaches the United States, will create some problems.

But if we look at Tesla's PEG ratio , it is currently high. So, we want to be clear about that. Compared to other stocks, Tesla is currently very expensive, okay? Tesla currently has forward earnings per share of $1.63 and is trading at around 228 times.

This is expensive. If you divide that by the forward growth forecast of 47, I still get a PEG ratio of about 4.8.