TSLA 2027 could be a golden year; stock performance hinges on self-driving taxi rollout and autonomous driving optimism.

Tesla shares are rising today following third-quarter delivery results. The results exceeded expectations. Well, Tesla shares are rising thanks to delivery figures exceeding expectations.

One point in these results that I find interesting is that the Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 98% of total deliveries. Does this pose a problem for the company ?

barely. In fact, this is the exact opposite of the problem . It's a massive show of force. Tesla has produced two products that sweep their categories: the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y compact SUV, which completely dominate their respective segments.

Instead of having a huge amount of unnecessary complexity , Tesla has proven that you don't need 400 trillion different cars , models, classes, and varied options to sell very large numbers of cars. This is important from a business perspective.

Tesla benefits enormously from economies of scale, parts standardization, bulk purchasing, and the ability to apply technologies in the manufacturing processes of these vehicles, given that it has enough scale to justify its cost.

For example, the giant casting technique , or " gigapress". In low-volume vehicles, this is not economical. You need to own a certain volume of vehicles in the first place for spending money and investing in "Giga Press" to make financial sense.

The advantage of very large vehicles is that they allow Tesla to offer greater value to the consumer at a lower cost.

Remember, Tesla itself recently voluntarily halted production of the Model S and Model X, which are highly profitable and relatively low-volume vehicles. They didn't need to do that .

I mean, they could have continued to make profits from these vehicles, but they did the analysis and realized that the fastest way to start producing humanoid "Optimus" robots was to stop production of the "Model S" and "X" in Fremont, re-equip the factory, and then start ramping up production of the "Optimus " robot.

Tesla has chosen to forgo millions and millions of dollars in quarterly profits by discontinuing compelling and highly profitable products.

Well, I mean, this will continue to be Tesla's true growth story going forward, but it's really about recovery in Europe. I mean, this is a breath of fresh air for investors. As you know, if you look at the past few years of declines , you will finally see growth this year, and I think it's a big step in the right direction for Tesla in terms of what we've seen here.

What about "Cyber Truck"? I thought this product was supposed to take Tesla to the next level. It is clearly a larger, utility vehicle similar to a small truck. What happens when this product is adopted?

To be clear, I had high hopes for the Cybertruck at the beginning , but—and there's a big "but"—Tesla was unable to lower the Cybertruck's initial price enough for mass adoption.

No matter how much value a product offers, if consumers cannot afford to buy it in large numbers, you will not sell large numbers of that product. This contrasts with the 3 and Y models, which also offer exceptional value and, unlike the Cybertruck, are so competitively and reasonably priced that they are viable for mass market adoption.

For this reason, the 3 and Y models together sell over 1.5 million units annually. Not only do they offer excellent value , but their starting price is low enough that millions of consumers can afford to buy these vehicles.

CyberTrack didn't quite reach that level in terms of its starting price. The value is there, and it's an amazing product that everyone who owns a Cybertruck loves, but it's still far from being accessible to the mass market.

Remember, Tesla doesn't operate in a vacuum. Look, I mean, they still see strength in Cybertruck over the past year, but the reality is that, given it's in the high-end segment of the market, it's not going to change the situation significantly from a demand perspective.

I think that going forward, as we enter 2027, the question is, will you actually have a new model that has been introduced? As for the stock , it all depends on self-driving taxis and optimism about autonomous driving.

I mean , this is basically a company that is transforming from an electric vehicle player into what I would consider a true artificial intelligence player. Currently, this is a kind of interim period where you see the stock's performance. Investors are waiting to see success.

Okay, so you're saying it's an interim period. This means you have a sense of when "Optimus" will be released here and when these humanoid robots will be released. Do you have a schedule ?

I didn't see a very clear timetable. Obviously, we know that Elon Musk often sets a date and then postpones it. Sometimes once, sometimes several times.

Yes, I think 2027, I mean, let's say in the first or middle part of the year. The big thing will be the rollout of self-driving taxis because the start so far has been slower, and much of that is due to regulatory aspects.

With the story of self-driving taxis and autonomous driving taking hold, I think "Optimus" will be in the second half of the year and into the following year. That's why I think 2027 could be a golden year for Tesla.

We continue to believe that by the end of next year, there is a very high probability of over 80% that SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge . There's a small wedding there. Here's how I think a potential merger should be put to a vote at least by shareholders .

If a potential merger is proposed, it will only be a matter of time. You want to make sure you have enough support from Tesla shareholders to ensure actual approval and completion of the deal.

So, how do we get to that point? Because we are not there at the moment. And how do I know that? Well, I don't know, but I can guess, and here's why. Most Tesla investors probably understand Tesla at least a little better than they understand SpaceX.

Most Tesla investors probably gave Tesla a little more thought than SpaceX. Because of this, they have not yet been able to close the gap between what SpaceX is currently doing in terms of its last quarter, Starlink user growth, revenue, etc., versus what they will do in subsequent quarters.

If this were the case, and if a sufficient number of Tesla shareholders had devoted the time to modeling SpaceX , there is no doubt that the shareholders' proposal to merge the two companies would pass with overwhelming success.

But we haven't reached that point yet . So, here's what needs to happen. First, the highly unlikely scenario is that almost every Tesla shareholder will need to devote time to a detailed model of what SpaceX’s business will do in the coming quarters and years.

And if they do that, once they have finished, they will be 100% supportive of the merger. But this requires a lot of thought. It also requires someone willing to dedicate time to modeling SpaceX, something that may not be of particular interest right now.

This is the first option, and it is not very likely. The second option is that in the next quarter, and the quarter after that, and the quarter after that, that is, about 12 months from now, SpaceX will blow everyone's mind with incredible growth, revenues and profits in its emerging AI computing, Starlink and AI modeling businesses.

At this point, there will be no need for any modeling because people will have witnessed four consecutive quarters of amazing achievements, and then I think it is fair to say that the majority of Tesla shareholders, unless they are completely out of their minds —actually not, because they will have already sold their shares— will in principle support the merger.

So, I think Dan's estimate for the end of next year is at least certain that the deal is likely to go ahead , and here's why. Give SpaceX four quarters to wow people’s minds with massive revenue and profit growth, especially in its AI computing business, which most investors today, whether Tesla investors or others, seem to have no idea is coming.

Therefore , the number of Tesla investors who support, in principle, a merger with SpaceX is trending upward. I don't think we're close to the point where we need to get overwhelming shareholder approval, but we're heading in the right direction.

Give it a few quarters, maybe a year or so at most, and I think we'll probably at least have this idea to vote on.