2027年可能是TSLA的黄金之年，其股价表现取决于自动驾驶出租车落地进展以及市场对自动驾驶的乐观情绪。
逐段跳播
特斯拉股价今日上涨，此前公布了第三季度交付数据。交付结果超出预期。特斯拉股价正在上涨，原因是交付数据超出预期。
Tesla shares are rising today following third-quarter delivery results. The results exceeded expectations. Well, Tesla shares are rising thanks to delivery figures exceeding expectations.
这些结果中我觉得有意思的一点是，Model 3 和 Model Y 占总交付量的 98%。这会给公司带来问题吗？
One point in these results that I find interesting is that the Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 98% of total deliveries. Does this pose a problem for the company ?
几乎不会。事实上，这恰恰是问题的反面。这是一次大规模的实力展示。特斯拉打造出了两款横扫各自细分市场的产品：Model 3 轿车和 Model Y 紧凑型 SUV，它们完全主导了各自的细分市场。
特斯拉没有背负大量不必要的复杂性，反而证明了：你不需要 400 万亿款不同的汽车、车型、级别和五花八门的配置，也能卖出非常大的销量。从商业角度看，这一点很重要。
barely. In fact, this is the exact opposite of the problem . It's a massive show of force. Tesla has produced two products that sweep their categories: the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y compact SUV, which completely dominate their respective segments.
Instead of having a huge amount of unnecessary complexity , Tesla has proven that you don't need 400 trillion different cars , models, classes, and varied options to sell very large numbers of cars. This is important from a business perspective.
特斯拉从规模经济、零部件标准化、批量采购，以及在制造流程中应用技术的能力中获益巨大，因为它拥有足够的规模来支撑其成本。例如，巨型压铸技术，也就是“gigapress”。在低产量车型上，这并不经济。
你首先需要拥有一定的车辆产量，花钱投资“Giga Press”在财务上才说得通。超大规模产量的优势在于，它让特斯拉能够以更低的成本为消费者提供更大的价值。
Tesla benefits enormously from economies of scale, parts standardization, bulk purchasing, and the ability to apply technologies in the manufacturing processes of these vehicles, given that it has enough scale to justify its cost.
For example, the giant casting technique , or " gigapress". In low-volume vehicles, this is not economical. You need to own a certain volume of vehicles in the first place for spending money and investing in "Giga Press" to make financial sense.
The advantage of very large vehicles is that they allow Tesla to offer greater value to the consumer at a lower cost.
记住，特斯拉自己最近主动暂停了 Model S 和 Model X 的生产，这两款是利润丰厚、产量相对较低的车型。他们本不必这么做。我的意思是，他们本可以继续从这些车型上赚取利润，但他们做了分析，意识到开始生产人形“Optimus”机器人的最快方式，就是停止在弗里蒙特生产“Model S”和“X”，重新装备工厂，然后开始提升“Optimus”机器人的产量。
特斯拉选择放弃数以百万美元计的季度利润，停产这些有吸引力且利润丰厚的产品。
Remember, Tesla itself recently voluntarily halted production of the Model S and Model X, which are highly profitable and relatively low-volume vehicles. They didn't need to do that .
I mean, they could have continued to make profits from these vehicles, but they did the analysis and realized that the fastest way to start producing humanoid "Optimus" robots was to stop production of the "Model S" and "X" in Fremont, re-equip the factory, and then start ramping up production of the "Optimus " robot.
Tesla has chosen to forgo millions and millions of dollars in quarterly profits by discontinuing compelling and highly profitable products.
这将继续成为特斯拉未来真正的增长故事，但关键其实在于欧洲的复苏。我的意思是，这对投资者来说是一股清新之风。如你所知，如果看过去几年的下滑，今年你终于会看到增长，我认为就我们在这里看到的情况而言，这是特斯拉朝着正确方向迈出的一大步。
Well, I mean, this will continue to be Tesla's true growth story going forward, but it's really about recovery in Europe. I mean, this is a breath of fresh air for investors. As you know, if you look at the past few years of declines , you will finally see growth this year, and I think it's a big step in the right direction for Tesla in terms of what we've seen here.
那“Cyber Truck”呢？我原以为这款产品会把特斯拉带到一个新的高度。它显然是一款更大的、类似小型卡车的实用型车辆。当这款产品被市场接受时，会发生什么？
What about "Cyber Truck"? I thought this product was supposed to take Tesla to the next level. It is clearly a larger, utility vehicle similar to a small truck. What happens when this product is adopted?
说清楚一点，我一开始对 Cybertruck 抱有很高的期望，但是——这里有个很大的“但是”——特斯拉未能把 Cybertruck 的初始价格降到足以实现大规模普及的程度。无论一款产品提供多大的价值，如果消费者买不起、无法大量购买，你就卖不出大量该产品。
这与 3 和 Y 车型形成对比，后者同样提供卓越的价值，而且与 Cybertruck 不同，它们的定价极具竞争力、相当合理，足以在大众市场普及。因此，3 和 Y 车型合计年销量超过 150 万辆。
它们不仅提供极佳的价值，而且起售价足够低，数百万消费者都买得起。CyberTrack 在起售价方面没有完全达到那个水平。价值是有的，它是一款了不起的产品，每个拥有 Cybertruck 的人都喜欢它，但它距离大众市场可及仍有很大差距。
To be clear, I had high hopes for the Cybertruck at the beginning , but—and there's a big "but"—Tesla was unable to lower the Cybertruck's initial price enough for mass adoption.
No matter how much value a product offers, if consumers cannot afford to buy it in large numbers, you will not sell large numbers of that product. This contrasts with the 3 and Y models, which also offer exceptional value and, unlike the Cybertruck, are so competitively and reasonably priced that they are viable for mass market adoption.
For this reason, the 3 and Y models together sell over 1.5 million units annually. Not only do they offer excellent value , but their starting price is low enough that millions of consumers can afford to buy these vehicles.
CyberTrack didn't quite reach that level in terms of its starting price. The value is there, and it's an amazing product that everyone who owns a Cybertruck loves, but it's still far from being accessible to the mass market.
记住，特斯拉并非在真空中运营。他们过去一年在 Cybertruck 上仍然看到强劲表现，但现实是，鉴于它处于市场的高端细分，从需求角度看，它不会显著改变局面。我认为展望未来，随着我们进入 2027 年，问题是：你们是否真的会推出一款新车型？
至于股价，一切都取决于自动驾驶出租车以及对自动驾驶的乐观情绪。我的意思是，这基本上是一家正在从电动汽车参与者转型为我认为的真正人工智能参与者的公司。目前，这是一个过渡期，你看到的就是股价在这个阶段的表现。投资者在等待成功的到来。
Remember, Tesla doesn't operate in a vacuum. Look, I mean, they still see strength in Cybertruck over the past year, but the reality is that, given it's in the high-end segment of the market, it's not going to change the situation significantly from a demand perspective.
I think that going forward, as we enter 2027, the question is, will you actually have a new model that has been introduced? As for the stock , it all depends on self-driving taxis and optimism about autonomous driving.
I mean , this is basically a company that is transforming from an electric vehicle player into what I would consider a true artificial intelligence player. Currently, this is a kind of interim period where you see the stock's performance. Investors are waiting to see success.
好，所以你说这是一个过渡期。这意味着你对“Optimus”何时在这里发布、这些人形机器人何时发布是有感觉的。你有时间表吗？我没有看到一个非常清晰的时间表。显然，我们知道埃隆·马斯克经常定下一个日期，然后推迟。有时推迟一次，有时推迟好几次。
Okay, so you're saying it's an interim period. This means you have a sense of when "Optimus" will be released here and when these humanoid robots will be released. Do you have a schedule ?
I didn't see a very clear timetable. Obviously, we know that Elon Musk often sets a date and then postpones it. Sometimes once, sometimes several times.
是的，我认为是 2027 年，我的意思是，就说是上半年或年中吧。大事将是自动驾驶出租车的推出，因为到目前为止起步较慢，其中很大一部分原因是监管方面。随着自动驾驶出租车和自动驾驶的故事站稳脚跟，我认为“Optimus”会在下半年并延续到接下来的一年。
这就是为什么我认为 2027 年可能是特斯拉的黄金之年。
Yes, I think 2027, I mean, let's say in the first or middle part of the year. The big thing will be the rollout of self-driving taxis because the start so far has been slower, and much of that is due to regulatory aspects.
With the story of self-driving taxis and autonomous driving taking hold, I think "Optimus" will be in the second half of the year and into the following year. That's why I think 2027 could be a golden year for Tesla.
我们仍然认为，到明年年底，SpaceX 和特斯拉最终合并的概率非常高，超过 80%。那里有一场小型婚礼。我认为，潜在的合并至少应该由股东投票表决。如果提出潜在的合并，那只是时间问题。
你要确保获得特斯拉股东的足够支持，以确保交易实际获批并完成。那么，我们如何走到那一步？因为目前我们还没到那一步。我怎么知道？我并不确定，但我可以猜测，原因如下。大多数特斯拉投资者对特斯拉的了解，可能至少比他们对 SpaceX 的了解多一点。
大多数特斯拉投资者对特斯拉的思考，可能比他们对 SpaceX 的思考多一点。正因如此，他们尚未能弥合 SpaceX 目前在其上一季度、Starlink 用户增长、营收等方面的表现，与它们在随后几个季度将做到的事情之间的差距。
如果情况如此，如果有足够多的特斯拉股东投入时间去建模 SpaceX，那么毫无疑问，股东提出的两家公司合并的提案将以压倒性优势通过。但我们还没有到那一步。所以，需要发生以下情况。
第一，可能性极低的情形是，几乎每一位特斯拉股东都需要投入时间，对 SpaceX 业务在未来几个季度和几年的表现做详细建模。如果他们这么做了，一旦完成，他们会 100% 支持合并。
但这需要大量思考。还需要有人愿意投入时间去建模 SpaceX，而这件事目前可能并不特别令人感兴趣。这是第一种可能，而且可能性不大。第二种可能是，在下一个季度、再下一个季度、再再下一个季度，也就是从现在起大约 12 个月后，SpaceX 将凭借其新兴的 AI 计算、Starlink 和 AI 建模业务中令人难以置信的增长、营收和利润，让所有人大吃一惊。
到那时，就完全不需要任何建模了，因为人们将亲眼目睹连续四个季度的惊人成就，然后我认为可以公平地说，大多数特斯拉股东——除非他们完全疯了，其实不会，因为他们那时已经卖掉了股票——原则上会支持合并。
We continue to believe that by the end of next year, there is a very high probability of over 80% that SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge . There's a small wedding there. Here's how I think a potential merger should be put to a vote at least by shareholders .
If a potential merger is proposed, it will only be a matter of time. You want to make sure you have enough support from Tesla shareholders to ensure actual approval and completion of the deal.
So, how do we get to that point? Because we are not there at the moment. And how do I know that? Well, I don't know, but I can guess, and here's why. Most Tesla investors probably understand Tesla at least a little better than they understand SpaceX.
Most Tesla investors probably gave Tesla a little more thought than SpaceX. Because of this, they have not yet been able to close the gap between what SpaceX is currently doing in terms of its last quarter, Starlink user growth, revenue, etc., versus what they will do in subsequent quarters.
If this were the case, and if a sufficient number of Tesla shareholders had devoted the time to modeling SpaceX , there is no doubt that the shareholders' proposal to merge the two companies would pass with overwhelming success.
But we haven't reached that point yet . So, here's what needs to happen. First, the highly unlikely scenario is that almost every Tesla shareholder will need to devote time to a detailed model of what SpaceX’s business will do in the coming quarters and years.
And if they do that, once they have finished, they will be 100% supportive of the merger. But this requires a lot of thought. It also requires someone willing to dedicate time to modeling SpaceX, something that may not be of particular interest right now.
This is the first option, and it is not very likely. The second option is that in the next quarter, and the quarter after that, and the quarter after that, that is, about 12 months from now, SpaceX will blow everyone's mind with incredible growth, revenues and profits in its emerging AI computing, Starlink and AI modeling businesses.
At this point, there will be no need for any modeling because people will have witnessed four consecutive quarters of amazing achievements, and then I think it is fair to say that the majority of Tesla shareholders, unless they are completely out of their minds —actually not, because they will have already sold their shares— will in principle support the merger.
所以，我认为Dan对明年年底的估计至少可以确定这笔交易很可能会推进，原因如下。给SpaceX四个季度的时间，用大幅增长的营收和利润来震撼人们的认知，尤其是在其AI计算业务上，而如今大多数投资者，无论是特斯拉投资者还是其他人，似乎都完全没有意识到这一点的到来。
因此，原则上支持与SpaceX合并的特斯拉投资者数量正在上升。我不认为我们已经接近需要获得压倒性股东批准的地步，但我们正朝着正确的方向前进。再给它几个季度，最多也许一年左右，我想我们大概至少会有这个想法付诸投票。
So, I think Dan's estimate for the end of next year is at least certain that the deal is likely to go ahead , and here's why. Give SpaceX four quarters to wow people’s minds with massive revenue and profit growth, especially in its AI computing business, which most investors today, whether Tesla investors or others, seem to have no idea is coming.
Therefore , the number of Tesla investors who support, in principle, a merger with SpaceX is trending upward. I don't think we're close to the point where we need to get overwhelming shareholder approval, but we're heading in the right direction.
Give it a few quarters, maybe a year or so at most, and I think we'll probably at least have this idea to vote on.
观察点
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 21 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。