Tesla remains a favorite short: cash flow burn is intensifying and the Musk charm is wearing off, with showmanship masking a lack of fundamentals. Its promised robotics venture is worth only $30-40 billion against a $1.4-1.5 trillion market cap; fundamental value is about $30 a share.

All right, you've got SpaceX, Tesla. Now, just I I I just want to stress that as we're watching this, the the stock didn't actually move on this Tesla Roadster launch.

Um which by the way, there there isn't a there isn't a production date exactly announced yet. Musk said sometime next year. Uh we're 2028 latest. But that thing flies. It's got thrusters.

I I I also want to stress that these thrusters are not yet road legal. So you can't actually you can't actually fly those cars, but but but it it can technically. So I don't know if that's going to be a feature at some point, but um stock didn't really move on that launch.

Yeah. You know, David, you and I, we talk about Elon Musk and Tesla a lot. I mean, is entertainment fine, the Jets and sci-fi, that's cool. Okay. But you've heard me and others say many a time in the case of Tesla, the product is the stock.

Usually the the product, the cars should be the product. No, the product is the stock. And all this stuff, all this Showtime, Rasmatz, it's all just designed to try to jack up the stock price.

And so, you know, it's funny. That's actually the first time I've seen it. I heard about it. I didn't waste my time watching it when it came out. Look, when you have when you don't have fundamentals to talk about, when you don't have fundamentals to talk about, this is what you do.

You you you deflect. Okay, so it's a complete tra I I see that I just want to laugh and you know Tesla's I think coming out with numbers tomorrow. I have no idea what the numbers are going to be.

I don't really care. Um you know liars figure but figures don't lie. The cash cash flow burn is is intensifying. So it remains a favorite short of mine.

Everyone says well you can't shoot Elon really. Uh we're short from 485 uh if you look at the table 475 485 at the end of last year. with 25% ahead uh on that short even in a market that's up 10 15%.

So I think the Musk uh edge, the Musk charm is wearing off. Um you know, cash flow is starting to bite. Tesla's got a big cash flow problem. So no, I I think I think the future is coming ever closer to now.

And and again, not that these stocks necessarily trade to this level, but my fundamental assessment for each of those two stocks is they're worth $30 a share. Whether we get there or not, who knows? But that's the direction of travel.

As you're valuing Tesla, you have to take into account maybe that they're shifting towards robotics and so this is becoming a robotics play. You're not bullish on humanoid robots.

Well, that's what they would have you believe. But my point is if you look at the here's the problem with here's the problem with the sound bite sounds great. However, when you start doing the numbers and with the market cap I've lost I don't know where it is today 1.4 1.5 trillion.

If you benchmark the robot the pretend robotics venture which really has nothing so far. But if you benchmark that against the best robotics companies it's worth like 30 or$40 billion.

This is on a on a market cap of a trillion five. So, as a sound bite, yes, but in reality, it doesn't begin to move the needle.