特斯拉仍是首选做空标的：现金流烧钱正在加剧，马斯克的魅力正在消退，作秀掩盖了基本面的缺失。其承诺的机器人业务仅值 300 亿至 400 亿美元，而市值高达 1.4 万亿至 1.5 万亿美元；基本面价值约为每股 30 美元。
逐段跳播
好，你有 SpaceX、Tesla。现在，我只是想强调，在我们关注这件事的时候，股价其实并没有因为这次 Tesla Roadster 发布而变动。
All right, you've got SpaceX, Tesla. Now, just I I I just want to stress that as we're watching this, the the stock didn't actually move on this Tesla Roadster launch.
顺便说一句，目前还没有确切公布量产日期。Musk 说会在明年某个时候，最晚2028年。但那东西能飞。它装有推进器。我还想强调，这些推进器目前还不能合法上路。所以实际上你不能让那些车飞起来，但技术上它可以。
所以我不知道这以后会不会成为一个卖点，但股价并没有因为那次发布而真正变动。
Um which by the way, there there isn't a there isn't a production date exactly announced yet. Musk said sometime next year. Uh we're 2028 latest. But that thing flies. It's got thrusters.
I I I also want to stress that these thrusters are not yet road legal. So you can't actually you can't actually fly those cars, but but but it it can technically. So I don't know if that's going to be a feature at some point, but um stock didn't really move on that launch.
是的。David，你和我经常谈论 Elon Musk 和 Tesla。娱乐性没问题，喷气机和科幻，那很酷。好吧。但你多次听我和其他人说过，就 Tesla 而言，产品就是股票。通常产品、汽车才应该是产品。
不，产品是股票。所有这些花招、所有这些作秀，都只是为了推高股价。
Yeah. You know, David, you and I, we talk about Elon Musk and Tesla a lot. I mean, is entertainment fine, the Jets and sci-fi, that's cool. Okay. But you've heard me and others say many a time in the case of Tesla, the product is the stock.
Usually the the product, the cars should be the product. No, the product is the stock. And all this stuff, all this Showtime, Rasmatz, it's all just designed to try to jack up the stock price.
所以说来有趣，那其实是我第一次看到它。我听说过，但它发布时我没浪费时间去看。你看，当你没有基本面可谈的时候，当你没有基本面可谈的时候，你就会这么做。你会转移话题。所以这完全是——我看到这个只想笑。
而且 Tesla 我想明天要公布数据了。我完全不知道数据会怎样。我也不太在乎。俗话说，骗子会编数字，但数字不会说谎。现金流烧钱正在加剧。所以它仍然是我最喜欢的做空标的。
And so, you know, it's funny. That's actually the first time I've seen it. I heard about it. I didn't waste my time watching it when it came out. Look, when you have when you don't have fundamentals to talk about, when you don't have fundamentals to talk about, this is what you do.
You you you deflect. Okay, so it's a complete tra I I see that I just want to laugh and you know Tesla's I think coming out with numbers tomorrow. I have no idea what the numbers are going to be.
I don't really care. Um you know liars figure but figures don't lie. The cash cash flow burn is is intensifying. So it remains a favorite short of mine.
大家都说，你没法做空 Elon。我们从485开始做空，如果你看表格，去年年底是475、485。这笔空头已经领先25%，即使在一个上涨10%到15%的市场里。
Everyone says well you can't shoot Elon really. Uh we're short from 485 uh if you look at the table 475 485 at the end of last year. with 25% ahead uh on that short even in a market that's up 10 15%.
所以我认为，Musk 的优势、Musk 的魅力正在消退。现金流开始造成压力。Tesla 有很大的现金流问题。所以不，我认为未来正越来越近地变成现在。再说一次，不是说这些股票一定会跌到这个水平，但我对这两只股票的基本面评估是，它们每股值30美元。我们能不能到那里，谁知道呢？但这是行进方向。
So I think the Musk uh edge, the Musk charm is wearing off. Um you know, cash flow is starting to bite. Tesla's got a big cash flow problem. So no, I I think I think the future is coming ever closer to now.
And and again, not that these stocks necessarily trade to this level, but my fundamental assessment for each of those two stocks is they're worth $30 a share. Whether we get there or not, who knows? But that's the direction of travel.
在给 Tesla 估值时，你必须考虑到他们可能正在转向机器人业务，所以这正在变成一项机器人业务投资。你并不看好的人形机器人。
As you're valuing Tesla, you have to take into account maybe that they're shifting towards robotics and so this is becoming a robotics play. You're not bullish on humanoid robots.
嗯，那是他们想让你相信的。但我的观点是，如果你看看——问题就在这里，问题就在这里——这句话听起来很棒。然而，当你开始算数字，考虑到市值——我忘了今天是多少了，1.4万亿、1.5万亿。
如果你把那个机器人业务——那个所谓的机器人项目，其实到目前为止什么都没有——拿来对标最好的机器人公司，它大概值300亿或400亿美元。而这是建立在1.5万亿市值上的。所以，作为一句口号，是的，但实际上，它根本不足以改变大局。
Well, that's what they would have you believe. But my point is if you look at the here's the problem with here's the problem with the sound bite sounds great. However, when you start doing the numbers and with the market cap I've lost I don't know where it is today 1.4 1.5 trillion.
If you benchmark the robot the pretend robotics venture which really has nothing so far. But if you benchmark that against the best robotics companies it's worth like 30 or$40 billion.
This is on a on a market cap of a trillion five. So, as a sound bite, yes, but in reality, it doesn't begin to move the needle.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
David Lin 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。