$TSLA

TSLA beat EPS, though that may not last, with FSD/Optimus optimism, but faces fierce China/Europe competition and must spend heavily to lead autonomy/robotics; Optimus is undelivered, so payoff needs time and spending. After the pullback, a trader expects a gradual rise above 400 over the next month, not a sharp rally.

BullishHe framed it in months
“Competitors Closing Gap on TSLA, Earnings & SPCX Merger Talks Add Fuel to Bull Case”
Schwab NetworkPublished Oct 22 · 16 passages

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1:219:00

let's talk about some of the key points from Tesla's earnings, because it was really interesting to see the Asian session's reaction first to this report. Yes, I was reading some of the conversation transcript.

They are very optimistic about the development of Optimus, as well as full self-driving Tesla cars, aren't they? To be released in all markets, including China, right? That will be extremely important.

I mean, for me, Tesla sees stiff competition, especially in China, which is still the number one market for electric cars. I think Tesla needs to excel on the technological side, whether that's in fully autonomous driving or robotics.

We have seen an improvement, of course, in earnings per share. I think it was better than most analysts expected this quarter, but that will change.

I think they need to spend a lot to ensure they have the edge on the technological side. Then in the field of robotics, right? They have a lot of potential, and they have a lot of things they say they will do, but they have not delivered any Optimus Prime cars yet.

Compare that to Unitree, which shipped more than 5,000 units by 2025. I know Musk is waiting and saying, "Oh, you know, Optimus will have all these features, but they haven't reached that point yet."

So it will take a lot of spending and time to get there, won't it?

For this reason, we hold Tesla shares in our exchange-traded fund KARS, a global electric vehicle and future mobility fund. We take a global approach, investing in Tesla and American companies, as well as allocating a significant portion to Chinese companies that strongly compete with Tesla.

I'll tell you, Sam, I've been to China, and I've tried out some of their locally made electric cars, and I have to say they're serious contenders against Tesla. We see that their factory in Shanghai, it is estimated that approximately 50% of their cars produced there are exported, and not sold in China.

Therefore, the competition is extremely fierce. They need to excel in the technological field.

This is what makes them strong competitors, especially in Europe. I mean, everyone I spoke to who came back from their summer holidays there said, "My God, how many Chinese cars are on the roads now!"

Musk had to be very careful about talking about this subject because he could get into trouble if he revealed too much, but he hinted that a SpaceX merger was something he might support. Of course, he needs shareholder support...

...while Tesla focuses on cars. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how they will reconcile the two fields, and where exactly the synergies lie.

We have Tesla shares in our exchange-traded fund (ETF) for electric vehicles and robotics.

Let's trade Tesla shares now with Tom White, host of Fast Money. Tom, good morning. We see the stock trying to continue rising. I'm not as excited as some of the other Mag 7 Group stocks today, but let's look at an example of a deal.

Yes, Sam, I think when the stock was down 3-4% in the pre-opening market, we saw some good results. A decline in capital spending, and perhaps some concerns about supply constraints and things like that, but a good report on Tesla, and that's why we see the stock rebounding even with today's negative macroeconomic environment.

Therefore, if the shares had remained stable, the stock would have risen significantly. I took a look at the options market, taking advantage of the recent pullback in Tesla shares.

If you believe the stock will rise, here is a strategy that takes advantage of a gradual upward movement. I don't need a sharp rise, but anticipating a gradual rise above the 400 level over the next month, I looked at an unbalanced or broken-winged call option butterfly strategy to offset part of the cost of this bullish trade, where I would buy one of the monthly call options due on November 20, which expires after 29 days.

We will buy one call option at a strike price of 385. We will sell two call options at a strike price of 410. This is the price we want the stock to reach, and then we will buy one call option at a strike price of 420.

In short, in this three-legged strategy, you buy a vertical bullish call option with a bid of $25, and offset part of the cost by selling a vertical bullish call option with a bid of $10.

You will pay approximately US$7.50 as a discount fee. That's the amount of risk, $750 per trade. The breakeven price will reach $392.50 during the next month. This is only 1.7% higher than the current share price.

Therefore, to achieve profitability, we need the price to rise by less than 2%.

As you can see, you want the stock price to reach the price at which you sold two options near the strike price of 410, right? But at the same time, if the price rises above 420 and continues to rise, your profit will still be doubled.

Maximum profit is realized at or near the execution price of 410, where you risk $750 to make a profit of approximately $1750. But, as I mentioned, even if the price rises above the execution price of 420, the amount of risk in this trade will still be more than double.

Now, if you buy the 385-410 vertical call option, it will cost you about $300 more per trade. Therefore, using an unbalanced or broken-winged butterfly strategy reduces the initial cost and risk of the deal.

Example of a deal on Tesla shares after the earnings announcement. As I mentioned, the company is currently trying to reach a level of stability.

What this channel has said about $TSLA

Schwab Network has 21 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

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