TSLA 每股收益超预期，但这一表现可能难以持续；市场对 FSD 与 Optimus 抱有乐观预期，但公司面临中国和欧洲的激烈竞争，且必须大举投入才能在自动驾驶与机器人领域保持领先；Optimus 尚未交付，因此回报需要时间和投入。回调之后，一位交易员预计未来一个月股价将逐步升破 400，而非大幅拉升。
逐段跳播
我们来谈谈特斯拉财报中的几个关键点，因为看到亚洲交易时段首先对这份报告作出反应，确实很有意思。是的，我读了一些对话记录。他们对Optimus的发展以及特斯拉汽车的全自动驾驶非常乐观，对吧？
将在包括中国在内的所有市场推出，对吗？那将极其重要。
let's talk about some of the key points from Tesla's earnings, because it was really interesting to see the Asian session's reaction first to this report. Yes, I was reading some of the conversation transcript.
They are very optimistic about the development of Optimus, as well as full self-driving Tesla cars, aren't they? To be released in all markets, including China, right? That will be extremely important.
对我来说，特斯拉面临激烈的竞争，尤其是在中国，中国仍然是电动汽车的第一大市场。我认为特斯拉需要在技术方面表现出色，无论是在完全自动驾驶还是机器人领域。
I mean, for me, Tesla sees stiff competition, especially in China, which is still the number one market for electric cars. I think Tesla needs to excel on the technological side, whether that's in fully autonomous driving or robotics.
当然，我们已经看到每股收益有所改善。我认为本季度它好于大多数分析师的预期，但这种情况会发生变化。
We have seen an improvement, of course, in earnings per share. I think it was better than most analysts expected this quarter, but that will change.
我认为他们需要投入大量资金，以确保在技术方面保持优势。然后在机器人领域，对吧？他们有很大潜力，也说了很多要做的事情，但他们还没有交付任何Optimus Prime汽车。
I think they need to spend a lot to ensure they have the edge on the technological side. Then in the field of robotics, right? They have a lot of potential, and they have a lot of things they say they will do, but they have not delivered any Optimus Prime cars yet.
相比之下，Unitree到2025年已出货超过5,000台。我知道马斯克在等待并说：“哦，你知道，Optimus将具备所有这些功能，但他们还没有达到那个程度。”所以达到那个目标需要大量投入和时间，不是吗？
Compare that to Unitree, which shipped more than 5,000 units by 2025. I know Musk is waiting and saying, "Oh, you know, Optimus will have all these features, but they haven't reached that point yet."
So it will take a lot of spending and time to get there, won't it?
因此，我们在交易所交易基金KARS中持有特斯拉股票，这是一只全球电动汽车和未来出行基金。我们采取全球视角，投资特斯拉和美国公司，同时将很大一部分配置给与特斯拉激烈竞争的中国公司。
For this reason, we hold Tesla shares in our exchange-traded fund KARS, a global electric vehicle and future mobility fund. We take a global approach, investing in Tesla and American companies, as well as allocating a significant portion to Chinese companies that strongly compete with Tesla.
我告诉你，Sam，我去过中国，试驾过一些当地制造的电动汽车，我得说它们是特斯拉的强劲竞争对手。我们看到，他们在上海的工厂，估计那里生产的汽车大约50%用于出口，而不是在中国销售。
因此，竞争极其激烈。他们需要在技术领域表现出色。
I'll tell you, Sam, I've been to China, and I've tried out some of their locally made electric cars, and I have to say they're serious contenders against Tesla. We see that their factory in Shanghai, it is estimated that approximately 50% of their cars produced there are exported, and not sold in China.
Therefore, the competition is extremely fierce. They need to excel in the technological field.
这正是他们成为强劲竞争对手的原因，尤其是在欧洲。我交谈过的每个从那里度完暑假回来的人都说：“天哪，现在路上有多少中国汽车啊！”
This is what makes them strong competitors, especially in Europe. I mean, everyone I spoke to who came back from their summer holidays there said, "My God, how many Chinese cars are on the roads now!"
马斯克在谈论这个话题时必须非常小心，因为如果透露太多，他可能会惹上麻烦，但他暗示与SpaceX合并是他可能支持的事情。当然，他需要股东的支持……
Musk had to be very careful about talking about this subject because he could get into trouble if he revealed too much, but he hinted that a SpaceX merger was something he might support. Of course, he needs shareholder support...
……而特斯拉专注于汽车。因此，看看他们将如何协调这两个领域，以及协同效应究竟在哪里，将会很有意思。
...while Tesla focuses on cars. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how they will reconcile the two fields, and where exactly the synergies lie.
我们在电动汽车和机器人领域的交易所交易基金（ETF）中持有特斯拉股票。
We have Tesla shares in our exchange-traded fund (ETF) for electric vehicles and robotics.
现在让我们与Fast Money主持人Tom White一起谈谈特斯拉股票。Tom，早上好。我们看到该股试图继续上涨。今天我不像对其他一些Mag 7集团股票那样兴奋，但让我们看一个交易的例子。
Let's trade Tesla shares now with Tom White, host of Fast Money. Tom, good morning. We see the stock trying to continue rising. I'm not as excited as some of the other Mag 7 Group stocks today, but let's look at an example of a deal.
是的，Sam，我认为当该股在盘前市场下跌3-4%时，我们看到了一些不错的结果。资本支出下降，或许还有一些对供应限制之类的担忧，但特斯拉的财报不错，这就是为什么即使今天宏观经济环境负面，我们也看到该股反弹。
Yes, Sam, I think when the stock was down 3-4% in the pre-opening market, we saw some good results. A decline in capital spending, and perhaps some concerns about supply constraints and things like that, but a good report on Tesla, and that's why we see the stock rebounding even with today's negative macroeconomic environment.
因此，如果股价保持稳定，该股本会大幅上涨。我看了看期权市场，利用特斯拉股票最近的回落。如果你认为该股会上涨，这里有一个利用逐步上涨的策略。我不需要大幅上涨，但预计未来一个月将逐步升至400水平以上，我研究了不平衡或破翼看涨期权蝶式策略，以抵消部分看涨交易的成本，即买入一份11月20日到期的月度看涨期权，29天后到期。
我们将买入一份行权价为385的看涨期权。我们将卖出两份行权价为410的看涨期权。这是我们希望股价达到的价格，然后我们将买入一份行权价为420的看涨期权。简而言之，在这个三腿策略中，你买入一份买价为25美元的垂直看涨期权，并通过卖出一份买价为10美元的垂直看涨期权来抵消部分成本。
你将支付约7.50美元作为折扣费用。这就是风险金额，每笔交易750美元。未来一个月盈亏平衡价将达到392.50美元。这仅比当前股价高1.7%。因此，要实现盈利，我们需要价格上涨不到2%。
Therefore, if the shares had remained stable, the stock would have risen significantly. I took a look at the options market, taking advantage of the recent pullback in Tesla shares.
If you believe the stock will rise, here is a strategy that takes advantage of a gradual upward movement. I don't need a sharp rise, but anticipating a gradual rise above the 400 level over the next month, I looked at an unbalanced or broken-winged call option butterfly strategy to offset part of the cost of this bullish trade, where I would buy one of the monthly call options due on November 20, which expires after 29 days.
We will buy one call option at a strike price of 385. We will sell two call options at a strike price of 410. This is the price we want the stock to reach, and then we will buy one call option at a strike price of 420.
In short, in this three-legged strategy, you buy a vertical bullish call option with a bid of $25, and offset part of the cost by selling a vertical bullish call option with a bid of $10.
You will pay approximately US$7.50 as a discount fee. That's the amount of risk, $750 per trade. The breakeven price will reach $392.50 during the next month. This is only 1.7% higher than the current share price.
Therefore, to achieve profitability, we need the price to rise by less than 2%.
如你所见，你希望股价达到你卖出两份期权时的价格，行权价接近410，对吧？但同时，如果价格升破420并继续上涨，你的利润仍会翻倍。最大利润在行权价410附近或该价位实现，此时你冒着750美元的风险，赚取约1750美元的利润。
但正如我提到的，即使价格升破行权价420，这笔交易的风险金额仍会超过两倍。现在，如果你买入385-410的垂直看涨期权，每笔交易大约要多花300美元。因此，采用不平衡或断翼蝴蝶策略可以降低这笔交易的初始成本和风险。
As you can see, you want the stock price to reach the price at which you sold two options near the strike price of 410, right? But at the same time, if the price rises above 420 and continues to rise, your profit will still be doubled.
Maximum profit is realized at or near the execution price of 410, where you risk $750 to make a profit of approximately $1750. But, as I mentioned, even if the price rises above the execution price of 420, the amount of risk in this trade will still be more than double.
Now, if you buy the 385-410 vertical call option, it will cost you about $300 more per trade. Therefore, using an unbalanced or broken-winged butterfly strategy reduces the initial cost and risk of the deal.
这是财报公布后特斯拉股票的一笔交易示例。正如我提到的，该公司目前正试图达到一个稳定水平。
Example of a deal on Tesla shares after the earnings announcement. As I mentioned, the company is currently trying to reach a level of stability.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 21 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。