A Tesla-SpaceX merger is far from certain: approval requires more than 50% of all Tesla shares voting yes, with non-votes counted as no, so majority retail support may not be enough. A proposal may come within about 12 months, but is not yet there.

Now that the dust has officially settled, we got to talk about the Tesla SpaceX merge bombshell on the SpaceX Q3 earnings call where we learned that both Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to discuss this idea.

I want you guys to understand this is far from a done deal, even if it seems like most Tesla shareholders would be in support

My 20 years SpaceX valuation model, which also includes a 20-year Tesla model, cuz inevitably at some point I think the companies come together.

Let's now hear from Jane Monster, who, if I recall, was previously an analyst and is now a Tesla shareholder.

what's the buyout, the bid going to be for Tesla. At the end of the day, the combined company is pretty unique.

Unless a company like Tesla were to license its real world data stream which itself has got to surely be worth many tens of billions of dollars if not pushing towards a hundred.

There's no source of real world data even close to the scale of Tesla's vehicle fleet. So in order for any company to have a shot at true general super intelligence they must have digital which many companies have but they also must have the physical real world intelligence which only Tesla has because only Tesla has the data stream.

I got a I got a pretty good feeling that this is going to be pure unadulterated butt hurt toward Elon and Tesla.

Let's see how many gigawatts of AI compute were brought online. 10 gawatt is obviously a stretch. This is always the case with a Musk related company. They're always audacious in their goals, but we know what they're aiming for.

And the number was 1.7 at the end of the December the September quarter. And he's saying 10, which means that, you know, if it's between five and 10, it's still going to be a much bigger number.

And that came out, what he was basically doing was kind of pre-elling the guy that came from Brett Johnson, the CFO, minutes later, which was to expect 35 to 40 billion in capex in the December quarter. The street was at 19 billion.

Now, surprisingly, the stock went up on that. I mean, typically, we see these companies trading off on that. Why would it go up? And the reason is that I think investors believe that this is well spent uh whether it's to get to five uh gigawatts whether it's uh 7 10 whatever it is.

So to answer your question is I just take it with a grain of salt and kind of adjust it and even with that adjustment it's still an impressive number relative to what we're seeing from the other hyperscalers.

So um Dan I appreciate your shout out Tim question coming for you Dan my shout out to my past as an analyst. This is a a period where you almost have this is a dangerous comment I'm going to make, but

what's Tesla trading at versus what SpaceX is trading at and all that. As an investor, what you want to say is this a unique asset that comes together and then what is the long-term potential around that asset.

In other words, I don't think that there's going to be justification around an uh a multiple or some sort of evaluation to make this come together.

But when you think about the religion of what Elon is building, that's effectively what all this is. This is very big vision that needs almost religious fellowship by the employees and investors to to really stand behind it.

It is powerful. When you put these two companies together, I mean, it is the meme of all meme stocks. And so, I think that from an investor perspective, you should welcome this combination because it really reinforces the whole narrative that Elon's been building for the last decade around the power of AI.

The bar for this deal to be approved is extremely high. More than 50% technically like 50.000000001%. So 50% plus one share of all Tesla shares would need to vote in favor of this.

Here's why that is such an enormous hurdle. Every Tesla shareholder, whether they own one share, 10, 50, 100, or 100,000, or a million shares, who does not actively participate in a vote and exercise their right to vote, and vote in favor is counted automatically as a no.

Many investors currently hold their Tesla shares either in a [ __ ] hole country or with a [ __ ] house brokerage where they are unable to exercise their right to vote. Their brokerage literally will not allow them when they live in a shitty country where they literally can't do this.

Their automatic nos even if they want the deal to happen and they support their shares held count as a no vote.

Furthermore, in addition to the people who cannot vote, there's another subset of shareholders who can't be [ __ ] voting and won't vote their nos. There's another group of investors who don't know how to vote.

Don't pay attention to this [ __ ] There's a bunch of normies out there that hold Tesla stock that have never even thought about a proxy vote. What the [ __ ] is that? Ignore.

It's easy to assume that just about every Tesla retail shareholder is engaged, active on X, watching videos, but this is far from the truth. There are so many normies out there who bought some Tesla stock, haven't thought about it again, have never voted, don't know how to vote, and won't in future matters.

Bottom line, it's far from a sure thing. Even if the majority of Tesla shareholders, retail shareholders would vote in favor, that may not be enough. We need a massive super majority to compensate, to make up for the people who can't vote, won't vote, don't vote, don't know how to vote, can't be [ __ ] voting, the anti-Elon, teachers unions, pension funds, the woke fund managers, the deranged leftarts who've made squillions of dollars on Tesla stock yet will do anything to spite Elon Musk.

More and more Tesla shareholders who today would presumably be a no will be a holy [ __ ] what the [ __ ] Okay, I approve. I'd be surprised if sometime in the next 12ish months a deal hasn't been proposed to Tesla shareholders but you only really got one shot at this.

You don't want to [ __ ] it up. You don't want to miss. You don't want to be too close to call. You want a big win. And as I am recording this, we're probably not yet there.