Parkev Tatevosian, CFA on $TSLA (Oct 29, 2026)
Tesla again over-promised and failed to deliver: its self-driving network expansion by early 2026 fell far short of its own targets, and Waymo is far ahead of Tesla in US self-driving taxis. A likely SpaceX merger would give Tesla more capital, but getting even slightly closer to the self-driving taxi level it touts would take tens of billions of dollars.
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One of my strongest convictions for 2026 was that Tesla would again over- promise and fail to deliver. This prediction has proven correct , as Tesla has not reached anywhere near what it expected in expanding its network of self- driving cars by the beginning of 2026.
Especially since Waymo is far ahead of Tesla in providing self-driving taxis across the United States. In addition , the huge success of SpaceX's IPO means that SpaceX and Tesla are likely to merge, which means a greater likelihood that Tesla will receive more capital to invest in its self- driving taxi network.
It will require a lot of capital. Tesla will need to spend billions, tens of billions of dollars to get even slightly closer to the level of self- driving taxis it expects investors to offer.
If it merges with SpaceX, it will give the company much more capital, as SpaceX and the larger company can attract more capital from investors on the assumption that this is a future business, without expecting any profits or cash flows in the near term.
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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 8 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.