$TSLA · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-29
特斯拉再次过度承诺却未能兑现：其原定于2026年初完成的自驾网络扩张远未达到自身目标，而在美国自动驾驶出租车领域，Waymo已大幅领先特斯拉。与SpaceX的潜在合并或将为特斯拉带来更多资金，但即便只是稍微接近其对外宣称的自动驾驶出租车水平，也需要数百亿美元。
逐段跳播
我对2026年最坚定的判断之一是，特斯拉会再次过度承诺却无法兑现。这一预测已被证明是正确的，因为特斯拉在扩大其自动驾驶汽车网络方面，到2026年初的进展远远没有达到它预期的水平。
One of my strongest convictions for 2026 was that Tesla would again over- promise and fail to deliver. This prediction has proven correct , as Tesla has not reached anywhere near what it expected in expanding its network of self- driving cars by the beginning of 2026.
尤其是因为 Waymo 在美国各地提供自动驾驶出租车方面远远领先于特斯拉。此外，SpaceX 的 IPO 取得巨大成功，意味着 SpaceX 和特斯拉很可能会合并，这意味着特斯拉更有可能获得更多资金来投资其自动驾驶出租车网络。
Especially since Waymo is far ahead of Tesla in providing self-driving taxis across the United States. In addition , the huge success of SpaceX's IPO means that SpaceX and Tesla are likely to merge, which means a greater likelihood that Tesla will receive more capital to invest in its self- driving taxi network.
这将需要大量资金。特斯拉将需要花费数十亿、数百亿美元，才能哪怕稍微接近它期望投资者所看到的自动驾驶出租车水平。
It will require a lot of capital. Tesla will need to spend billions, tens of billions of dollars to get even slightly closer to the level of self- driving taxis it expects investors to offer.
如果它与 SpaceX 合并，将为公司带来多得多的资金，因为 SpaceX 和合并后更大的公司可以基于这是一项未来业务的假设，从投资者那里吸引更多资金，而无需预期近期有任何利润或现金流。
If it merges with SpaceX, it will give the company much more capital, as SpaceX and the larger company can attract more capital from investors on the assumption that this is a future business, without expecting any profits or cash flows in the near term.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。