TSM is a strong buy due to superior manufacturing capabilities, high current margins, and potential margin expansion from new customer demand (SpaceX/Tesla) despite long-term geographic dilution risks.
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Elon Musk delivered huge news to investors in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), with the CEO of SpaceX, Tesla, and others indicating they may work with the company for "Teravabe" manufacturing facilities, a blow to Intel.
So, let me share the details and what this might mean for investors in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) . This video will focus on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) rather than SpaceX or Tesla.
Early on Saturday , October 3, Elon Musk confirmed the talks via the X platform, saying they were just discussions at the moment, but something might come of them.
First, they believe it is likely that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will own and operate a new factory, with SpaceX and TerraFab investing in that factory. So, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will build and operate this factory, while SpaceX and Tesla will own a stake in it and commit to purchasing a certain amount of its production.
In another scenario, SpaceX would own the majority stake while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company would provide the technology and operational expertise. In this case, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will be a minority shareholder and will provide the technology and processes.
In both cases, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s skills, experience, and expertise are what SpaceX and Tesla are looking for. This is exactly what Elon Musk is looking for.
I have always said that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the best manufacturer in the world, period . If you are looking to manufacture semiconductors, which is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's core specialty , they are the first company to turn to.
You can understand that they have a larger number of customers . Their clients want more of her time, and more of her resources. Taiwan Semiconductor Company already runs a highly profitable business with returns on invested capital reaching record levels of 34%.
This also represents several times the company's weighted average cost of capital.
Their operating profit margins also rose to 56%, the best performance among most manufacturing companies, with the exception of Micron, of course, which now records operating profit margins exceeding 80%.
But if you ask me about the company, which manufacturing company will achieve the best operating profit margins over the next fifteen years? I would say that Taiwan Semiconductor Company will outperform Micron in terms of long-term operating profitability.
but in the long term, I expect Taiwan Semiconductor to perform better. Taiwan Semiconductor Company invests outside of Taiwan. They are investing in new manufacturing facilities in the United States, Japan, and Europe.
Therefore , this aligns with the management team's plans to diversify the company's business outside of Taiwan.
They have already invested $16 billion in the second quarter in terms of capital expenditures. Most of this amount is earmarked for enhancing their manufacturing capabilities. They expect third-quarter revenues to come in strong, with projected growth of 37% compared to the same quarter last year .
Management warned investors that their profit margins are likely to decline, but not anytime soon. They keep telling investors that they expect their profit margins to decline in the long term, but every quarter they announce better and increasing margins, as I have previously shared with you the long-term figures.
Looking ahead, they expect the same performance to continue with forecasts of an operating profit margin of 57% in the next quarter. Again, that would be better than the average of the past twelve months, which was 55.84%.
The reason management expects lower profit margins is due to that geographical expansion. They told investors that it is not as profitable to manufacture in the United States, Japan, or Europe as it is to manufacture in Taiwan for many reasons, including that manufacturing costs in those other regions are higher than manufacturing costs in Taiwan.
Also, the Taiwanese government provides TSMC with many advantages and incentives. It is one of the most important companies, if not the most important company, in Taiwan, so you can understand why they receive preferential government treatment.
They also receive incentives to expand into the United States, Japan and Europe, but not to the same extent as they do in their home country.
However, in the short term, they continue to achieve better profit margins because their capacity utilization rate is very high, isn't that right? You mentioned that they sold almost all of their production capacity, and as soon as new capabilities are brought into service, there is a customer waiting to purchase those services.
And if you add SpaceX and Tesla to that impressive list, you are now reaching a range that goes beyond the company's natural capacity utilization rates, and this leads to better profitability because you are increasing the efficiency of your capabilities.
You are utilizing all your available resources, and this reduces the cost per unit produced , leading to higher profit margins.
Fortunately, I informed investors about how attractive this investment opportunity was for the entire year of 2026, and the share price rose significantly. It is trading near its highest valuation based on a forward P/E ratio of 22, but I still believe it is an attractive value for investors because the company's performance has improved significantly during this period .
Similarly, if you look at the discounted cash flow valuation of $484 per share, I think it is undervalued because I calculated the fair value at $670.
I haven't even included any profits from this announcement, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company could get a share of this great announcement,
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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 5 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.