$TSM

TSM凭借领先的制造能力、当前较高的利润率,以及来自新客户需求(SpaceX/Tesla)带来的利润率扩张潜力,构成强力买入标的,尽管长期存在地理布局稀释风险。

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《Elon Musk Delivered Massive News for Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Investors》
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-10-07 · 22 段内容
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22 段内容
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Elon Musk 向台积电(TSMC)的投资者传递了重大消息,这位 SpaceX、Tesla 等公司的 CEO 表示,他们可能会与该公司合作建设“Teravabe”制造工厂,这对 Intel 是一记打击。

Elon Musk delivered huge news to investors in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), with the CEO of SpaceX, Tesla, and others indicating they may work with the company for "Teravabe" manufacturing facilities, a blow to Intel.

那么,让我来分享其中的细节,以及这对台积电(TSMC)投资者可能意味着什么。本视频将聚焦于台积电(TSM),而非 SpaceX 或 Tesla。

So, let me share the details and what this might mean for investors in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) . This video will focus on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) rather than SpaceX or Tesla.

10 月 3 日星期六早些时候,Elon Musk 通过 X 平台证实了这些商谈,称目前只是讨论,但可能会有所进展。

Early on Saturday , October 3, Elon Musk confirmed the talks via the X platform, saying they were just discussions at the moment, but something might come of them.

首先,他们认为台积电很可能会拥有并运营一座新工厂,SpaceX 和 TerraFab 则对该工厂进行投资。也就是说,台积电将建设并运营这座工厂,而 SpaceX 和 Tesla 将持有其股份,并承诺购买一定数量的产量。

First, they believe it is likely that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will own and operate a new factory, with SpaceX and TerraFab investing in that factory. So, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will build and operate this factory, while SpaceX and Tesla will own a stake in it and commit to purchasing a certain amount of its production.

在另一种情形下,SpaceX 将持有多数股权,而台积电将提供技术和运营专长。在这种情况下,台积电将成为少数股东,并提供技术和工艺。

In another scenario, SpaceX would own the majority stake while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company would provide the technology and operational expertise. In this case, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company will be a minority shareholder and will provide the technology and processes.

在两种情形下,SpaceX 和 Tesla 所看重的正是台积电的技术、经验和专长。这正是 Elon Musk 所寻求的。

In both cases, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s skills, experience, and expertise are what SpaceX and Tesla are looking for. This is exactly what Elon Musk is looking for.

我一直说,台积电是全球最好的制造商,没有之一。如果你想制造半导体,而这正是台积电的核心专长,那么他们是第一个应该去找的公司。

I have always said that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the best manufacturer in the world, period . If you are looking to manufacture semiconductors, which is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's core specialty , they are the first company to turn to.

你可以理解,他们拥有更多的客户。他们的客户想要占用她更多的时间,以及更多的资源。台积电已经经营着一项利润丰厚的业务,其投入资本回报率达到创纪录的 34%。这也相当于该公司加权平均资本成本的数倍。

You can understand that they have a larger number of customers . Their clients want more of her time, and more of her resources. Taiwan Semiconductor Company already runs a highly profitable business with returns on invested capital reaching record levels of 34%.

This also represents several times the company's weighted average cost of capital.

他们的营业利润率也升至 56%,在大多数制造企业中表现最佳,当然,Micron 除外,其营业利润率目前已超过 80%。

Their operating profit margins also rose to 56%, the best performance among most manufacturing companies, with the exception of Micron, of course, which now records operating profit margins exceeding 80%.

但如果你问我,未来十五年哪家制造企业将实现最佳的营业利润率?我想说,就长期营业盈利能力而言,台积电的表现将优于 Micron。

But if you ask me about the company, which manufacturing company will achieve the best operating profit margins over the next fifteen years? I would say that Taiwan Semiconductor Company will outperform Micron in terms of long-term operating profitability.

但长期来看,我预计台积电的表现会更好。台积电在台湾以外进行投资。他们正在美国、日本和欧洲投资建设新的制造设施。因此,这与管理团队将公司业务多元化、拓展至台湾以外的计划相一致。

but in the long term, I expect Taiwan Semiconductor to perform better. Taiwan Semiconductor Company invests outside of Taiwan. They are investing in new manufacturing facilities in the United States, Japan, and Europe.

Therefore , this aligns with the management team's plans to diversify the company's business outside of Taiwan.

第二季度,他们在资本支出方面已投入 160 亿美元。这笔金额的大部分被指定用于提升其制造能力。他们预计第三季度营收将表现强劲,同比增长预计达到 37%。

They have already invested $16 billion in the second quarter in terms of capital expenditures. Most of this amount is earmarked for enhancing their manufacturing capabilities. They expect third-quarter revenues to come in strong, with projected growth of 37% compared to the same quarter last year .

管理层提醒投资者,他们的利润率可能会下降,但不会很快发生。他们一直告诉投资者,预计长期而言利润率会下降,但每个季度他们公布的利润率都更好、更高,正如我之前与你们分享的长期数据。

Management warned investors that their profit margins are likely to decline, but not anytime soon. They keep telling investors that they expect their profit margins to decline in the long term, but every quarter they announce better and increasing margins, as I have previously shared with you the long-term figures.

展望未来,他们预计同样的表现将持续,并预测下一季度营业利润率为 57%。这同样将好于过去十二个月 55.84% 的平均水平。

Looking ahead, they expect the same performance to continue with forecasts of an operating profit margin of 57% in the next quarter. Again, that would be better than the average of the past twelve months, which was 55.84%.

管理层之所以预计利润率会下降,是因为这一地域扩张。他们告诉投资者,在美国、日本或欧洲制造不如在台湾制造那么赚钱,原因有很多,其中包括这些其他地区的制造成本高于台湾的制造成本。

The reason management expects lower profit margins is due to that geographical expansion. They told investors that it is not as profitable to manufacture in the United States, Japan, or Europe as it is to manufacture in Taiwan for many reasons, including that manufacturing costs in those other regions are higher than manufacturing costs in Taiwan.

此外,台湾政府为台积电提供了许多优势和激励措施。它是台湾最重要的公司之一,甚至可以说是最重要的公司,所以你可以理解为什么它会获得政府的优惠待遇。

Also, the Taiwanese government provides TSMC with many advantages and incentives. It is one of the most important companies, if not the most important company, in Taiwan, so you can understand why they receive preferential government treatment.

它们也获得了向美国、日本和欧洲扩张的激励,但程度不及在本国所获得的。

They also receive incentives to expand into the United States, Japan and Europe, but not to the same extent as they do in their home country.

不过,短期内它们仍能实现更好的利润率,因为其产能利用率非常高,对吧?你提到它们几乎卖光了全部产能,而一旦新的产能投入使用,就有客户等着购买这些服务。

However, in the short term, they continue to achieve better profit margins because their capacity utilization rate is very high, isn't that right? You mentioned that they sold almost all of their production capacity, and as soon as new capabilities are brought into service, there is a customer waiting to purchase those services.

如果把 SpaceX 和 Tesla 加入这份令人瞩目的名单,你现在达到的范围已经超出了该公司自然的产能利用率水平,而这会带来更好的盈利能力,因为你提高了产能的效率。你在利用所有可用资源,这降低了单位生产成本,从而带来更高的利润率。

And if you add SpaceX and Tesla to that impressive list, you are now reaching a range that goes beyond the company's natural capacity utilization rates, and this leads to better profitability because you are increasing the efficiency of your capabilities.

You are utilizing all your available resources, and this reduces the cost per unit produced , leading to higher profit margins.

幸运的是,我在整个 2026 年都向投资者说明了这一投资机会有多么具有吸引力,股价大幅上涨。按 22 倍的远期市盈率计算,其交易价格已接近最高估值,但我仍然认为它对投资者来说是一个有吸引力的价值,因为在此期间该公司的业绩已显著改善。

Fortunately, I informed investors about how attractive this investment opportunity was for the entire year of 2026, and the share price rose significantly. It is trading near its highest valuation based on a forward P/E ratio of 22, but I still believe it is an attractive value for investors because the company's performance has improved significantly during this period .

同样,如果看每股 484 美元的现金流折现估值,我认为它被低估了,因为我计算出的公允价值为 670 美元。

Similarly, if you look at the discounted cash flow valuation of $484 per share, I think it is undervalued because I calculated the fair value at $670.

我甚至还没有把这一公告带来的任何利润计入其中,因为台积电可能会从这一重大公告中分得一杯羹,

I haven't even included any profits from this announcement, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company could get a share of this great announcement,

这个频道对 $TSM 的历次判断

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-07看涨本条
Elon Musk 向台积电(TSMC)的投资者传递了重大消息,这位 SpaceX、Tesla 等公司的 CEO 表示,他们可能会与该公司合作建设“Teravabe”制造工厂,这对 Intel 是一记打击。
2026-10-01看涨
我接下来要重点介绍的被低估的半导体股票是台湾积体电路制造公司(TSMC)。
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