Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. on $TSN (Nov 10, 2026)
TSN has cyclical beef and beef-pricing issues while chicken is strong with higher margins; it pays a 3% dividend but guidance was cut and free-cash-flow guidance lowered. At 12 to 15 times average free cash flow of 1.5 billion it is at a cycle bottom, but the speaker says it may need to go much lower and would only buy cyclically when all three segments are bad, making it very cheap with margin of safety on the rebound.
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Tyson Foods cyclical beef issues, beef pricing issues, chicken doing well, higher margins there. And here you can play a little bit with the cycle there if you want to own it. 3% dividend guidance update decline in guidance, but it is a dividend payer.
They have first guided to good cash flows 1.2 to 1.7. Now it will likely be one to 1.2 and then we'll see how it trickles down into next year. But with that free cash flow at let's say 1.5 billion on average.
This is trading at the P ratio or price to free cash flow 12 to 15. at the bottom of the cycle. You can see here their free cash flow historically looks positive. Remind me after earnings.
I'll check the earnings and then maybe make a video. If it's not interesting, I will not make a video. Perhaps it needs to go much lower because the cycles there they are diversified a little bit.
Okay. Depending on chicken, beef, disc inputs, outputs. But to buy this from a cyclical perspective, you need the trifecta. All those three segments to be bad. Then the stock will be very cheap and then you can really play with the margin of safety on the rebound.