$TSN · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-10
TSN 的牛肉业务存在周期性和牛肉定价问题，而鸡肉业务强劲、利润率更高；它支付 3% 的股息，但业绩指引被下调，自由现金流指引也被调低。按 15 亿美元平均自由现金流的 12 至 15 倍计算，它处于周期底部，但说话者称可能还需大幅下跌，他只会在三大业务板块都糟糕、使其非常便宜且反弹时具备安全边际的情况下才周期性买入。
逐段跳播
Tyson Foods，牛肉的周期性问题、牛肉定价问题，鸡肉表现不错，那里的利润率更高。如果你想持有它，可以在这里稍微围绕周期做点操作。3%的股息，指引更新下调了指引，但它是派息的公司。
他们最初指引的是良好的现金流，12亿到17亿。现在很可能是10亿到12亿，然后我们再看它如何传导到明年。但按自由现金流平均比如15亿来算，这对应的市盈率或者说价格与自由现金流之比是12到15，处于周期底部。
你可以看到，他们的自由现金流从历史上看是正的。财报后提醒我。我会看看财报，然后也许做个视频。如果没意思，我就不做视频了。也许它需要跌得多得多，因为那里的周期，他们稍微多元化了一些。
好吧。取决于鸡肉、牛肉、投入、产出。但从周期角度看买入这个，你需要三连击。这三个板块全都糟糕。那时股票会非常便宜，然后你才能真正在反弹时利用安全边际。
Tyson Foods cyclical beef issues, beef pricing issues, chicken doing well, higher margins there. And here you can play a little bit with the cycle there if you want to own it. 3% dividend guidance update decline in guidance, but it is a dividend payer.
They have first guided to good cash flows 1.2 to 1.7. Now it will likely be one to 1.2 and then we'll see how it trickles down into next year. But with that free cash flow at let's say 1.5 billion on average.
This is trading at the P ratio or price to free cash flow 12 to 15. at the bottom of the cycle. You can see here their free cash flow historically looks positive. Remind me after earnings.
I'll check the earnings and then maybe make a video. If it's not interesting, I will not make a video. Perhaps it needs to go much lower because the cycles there they are diversified a little bit.
Okay. Depending on chicken, beef, disc inputs, outputs. But to buy this from a cyclical perspective, you need the trifecta. All those three segments to be bad. Then the stock will be very cheap and then you can really play with the margin of safety on the rebound.