UBER is undervalued with improving fundamentals; autonomous vehicle adoption is viewed as a net positive due to its role as a demand aggregator.
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Lyft, Uber, who are in roughly the same industry, and MGM Resorts. I am buying more of these stocks in 2026. This is because they are very cheap and I think their fundamentals will get better over time.
This could be because if we get autonomous vehicles, and suppose Uber still survives , but Tesla and Waymo are coming to market. And now the elevator has gone down to number four.
This could be a big problem for Lyft , but I'll explain why I don't think that will happen.
Let's go to number two. This is a related company, which is Uber. Uber shares have also been down quite a bit over the past year , down about 31% as you can see here, but it's a big company and a bit more leveraged.
Market cap of $140 billion, but you can see consistent growth here, even in the case of Uber. 16.4%. This actually includes some adverse effects , I think it's the case in the UK where they had to redefine the way they calculate revenue.
So, they're actually taking that $10 that I mentioned earlier, but the rules have changed, so now they're only taking that $2 or $2.50 as revenue. So, the booking remains the same.
Bookings are still holding up, but the revenue numbers being shown in the income statement are under pressure, at least in the short term. As we move towards 2027, we will start to see some positive effects behind this.
But again, let's take a look at some key performance indicators or KPIs. And again, that's a very valuable thing when looking at Fiscal AI, because they're collecting all these key performance indicators and it's available within minutes of the earnings report being released.
So, the things I would look at are monthly active platform users, total number of trips, and then I want to look at total gross bookings. However, I will group them together because the gross bookings figure includes mobility, delivery, and freight.
So, let's put these together and start with that. The gross bookings number, and let's look at it a little bit back to December 2022. And you can see that these are constantly increasing and growing at a compounding rate.
Your compound annual growth rate for mobility, which is over 22% for ride-sharing networks , delivery, which is mainly food, is about 19%, and freight. This is one thing in red below that is struggling a bit.
This is a negative compound annual growth rate of about 6.6%. But, as I said, this is the smallest part of the business. So, everything about Uber looks good.
They have a lot of partnerships in many automated vehicles. So, I think it will continue to act as that demand aggregator, even if we go to a world where you're using an agent to call a ride , where do you call for that ride ?
You might look at Uber or Lyft. This is something that many people do nowadays.
However, let's also look at the number of riders. Is it constantly increasing? Yes, it is increasing. 208 million people are using Uber on a monthly basis, and are they using it more and more ?
This is the total number of trips. Yes, this is also upward. So again , I don't think Uber's business will be hindered in any way by what's happening with autonomous vehicles. Honestly, I think this will have a positive impact, because companies like Tesla and Waymo, which are in the top two or three, will want to build their own networks.
But think about others. Companies like Lucid or Wave. They want to find the source of demand. Uber is the largest source of that demand. That's why you're seeing more and more partnerships. I think that's going to happen in the future.
I would n't be surprised if in a decade you could go to Uber and choose the automated car of your choice. Maybe you need a van for your family. Or maybe you're traveling alone.
So you'll want the smallest, most efficient, and most easily available car. I think Uber will have many options then. So being limited to just one network like Tesla or Waymo would n't make sense for many. I think Uber will be in a pretty good position.
So when I look at the cheapest stocks in my portfolio , I see Lyft, Uber, and MGM Resorts.
What this channel has said about $UBER
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.