UBER 估值偏低，基本面持续改善；由于其作为需求聚合方的角色，自动驾驶的普及被视为净利好。
逐段跳播
Lyft、Uber，它们大致处于同一行业，还有 MGM Resorts。我在2026年会买入更多这些股票。这是因为它们非常便宜，而且我认为它们的基本面会随着时间推移而改善。
Lyft, Uber, who are in roughly the same industry, and MGM Resorts. I am buying more of these stocks in 2026. This is because they are very cheap and I think their fundamentals will get better over time.
这可能是因为，如果我们有了自动驾驶汽车，假设 Uber 仍然存活下来，但 Tesla 和 Waymo 也进入市场。而现在电梯已经降到了第四位。这对 Lyft 来说可能是个大问题，但我会解释为什么我认为这不会发生。
This could be because if we get autonomous vehicles, and suppose Uber still survives , but Tesla and Waymo are coming to market. And now the elevator has gone down to number four.
This could be a big problem for Lyft , but I'll explain why I don't think that will happen.
我们来看第二位。这是一家相关公司，也就是 Uber。Uber 的股价在过去一年里也下跌了不少，正如你在这里看到的，下跌了约31%，但它是一家大公司，杠杆也略高一些。市值1400亿美元，但你可以看到这里持续的增长，即便是在 Uber 的情况下也是如此。
16.4%。这实际上包含了一些不利影响，我认为是在英国的情况，他们不得不重新定义计算收入的方式。所以，他们实际上收取了我之前提到的那10美元，但规则变了，所以现在他们只把那2美元或2.50美元计为收入。
因此，预订额保持不变。预订额仍然保持得住，但利润表中显示的收入数字正面临压力，至少短期内如此。随着我们迈向2027年，我们将开始看到这背后的一些积极影响。
Let's go to number two. This is a related company, which is Uber. Uber shares have also been down quite a bit over the past year , down about 31% as you can see here, but it's a big company and a bit more leveraged.
Market cap of $140 billion, but you can see consistent growth here, even in the case of Uber. 16.4%. This actually includes some adverse effects , I think it's the case in the UK where they had to redefine the way they calculate revenue.
So, they're actually taking that $10 that I mentioned earlier, but the rules have changed, so now they're only taking that $2 or $2.50 as revenue. So, the booking remains the same.
Bookings are still holding up, but the revenue numbers being shown in the income statement are under pressure, at least in the short term. As we move towards 2027, we will start to see some positive effects behind this.
但同样，我们来看一些关键绩效指标，也就是 KPI。再说一次，在查看 Fiscal AI 时这是非常有价值的东西，因为他们收集了所有这些关键绩效指标，并且在财报发布后几分钟内就能获取。
所以，我会看的是月度活跃平台用户数、总行程数，然后我想看总预订额。不过，我会把它们归在一起，因为总预订额这个数字包含了出行、配送和货运。所以，让我们把它们放在一起，从那个开始。
总预订额这个数字，我们稍微往回看到2022年12月。你可以看到这些数字在持续增长，并以复利速度增长。出行，也就是网约车网络的复合年增长率超过22%，配送，主要是食品，约为19%，还有货运。
这是下面标红的一项，有点吃力。这是约6.6%的负复合年增长率。但正如我所说，这是业务中最小的一部分。所以，Uber 的一切看起来都很好。
But again, let's take a look at some key performance indicators or KPIs. And again, that's a very valuable thing when looking at Fiscal AI, because they're collecting all these key performance indicators and it's available within minutes of the earnings report being released.
So, the things I would look at are monthly active platform users, total number of trips, and then I want to look at total gross bookings. However, I will group them together because the gross bookings figure includes mobility, delivery, and freight.
So, let's put these together and start with that. The gross bookings number, and let's look at it a little bit back to December 2022. And you can see that these are constantly increasing and growing at a compounding rate.
Your compound annual growth rate for mobility, which is over 22% for ride-sharing networks , delivery, which is mainly food, is about 19%, and freight. This is one thing in red below that is struggling a bit.
This is a negative compound annual growth rate of about 6.6%. But, as I said, this is the smallest part of the business. So, everything about Uber looks good.
他们在许多自动驾驶汽车方面有很多合作。所以，我认为它将继续充当那个需求聚合者，即使我们进入一个用智能体来叫车的世界，你会去哪里叫车？你可能会看 Uber 或 Lyft。这是如今很多人都在做的事。
They have a lot of partnerships in many automated vehicles. So, I think it will continue to act as that demand aggregator, even if we go to a world where you're using an agent to call a ride , where do you call for that ride ?
You might look at Uber or Lyft. This is something that many people do nowadays.
不过，我们也来看看乘客数量。它在持续增长吗？是的，它在增长。有2.08亿人每月使用 Uber，而且他们用得越来越多吗？这是总行程数。是的，这也是上升的。所以再说一次，我不认为 Uber 的业务会以任何方式受到自动驾驶汽车所发生之事的影响。
老实说，我认为这会产生积极影响，因为像 Tesla 和 Waymo 这样处于前两三名的公司，会想要建立自己的网络。但想想其他公司。像 Lucid 或 Wave 这样的公司。他们想找到需求的来源。
Uber 是那个需求的最大来源。这就是为什么你看到越来越多的合作。我认为这会在未来发生。
However, let's also look at the number of riders. Is it constantly increasing? Yes, it is increasing. 208 million people are using Uber on a monthly basis, and are they using it more and more ?
This is the total number of trips. Yes, this is also upward. So again , I don't think Uber's business will be hindered in any way by what's happening with autonomous vehicles. Honestly, I think this will have a positive impact, because companies like Tesla and Waymo, which are in the top two or three, will want to build their own networks.
But think about others. Companies like Lucid or Wave. They want to find the source of demand. Uber is the largest source of that demand. That's why you're seeing more and more partnerships. I think that's going to happen in the future.
如果十年后你可以去 Uber 选择你想要的自动驾驶汽车，我不会感到惊讶。也许你需要一辆面包车供家人使用。或者也许你独自出行。所以你会想要最小、最高效、最容易获得的车。我认为到那时 Uber 会有很多选择。
所以，对许多人来说，只局限于像 Tesla 或 Waymo 这样的单一网络是不合理的。我认为 Uber 会处于相当不错的位置。
I would n't be surprised if in a decade you could go to Uber and choose the automated car of your choice. Maybe you need a van for your family. Or maybe you're traveling alone.
So you'll want the smallest, most efficient, and most easily available car. I think Uber will have many options then. So being limited to just one network like Tesla or Waymo would n't make sense for many. I think Uber will be in a pretty good position.
所以，当我查看我投资组合中最便宜的股票时，我看到的是 Lyft、Uber 和 MGM Resorts。
So when I look at the cheapest stocks in my portfolio , I see Lyft, Uber, and MGM Resorts.
这个频道对 $UBER 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。