Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. on $WY (Nov 10, 2026)
WY is a staged buy now: around $21 it trades near the value of its land, and a likely dividend cut plus lower next-year results from falling housing orders are largely priced in; debt is not an inherent risk because land can be sold. Tree-value growth is slow and the stock is boring, but less cutting should leave more trees growing and more value over time; the speaker would start buying now and add in stages, trading around the cycle.
Jump to any passage
And let's go to the third one related to the sector. We have discussed it in a video 6 months ago. And here it is about owning timber, lumber, processing, land, a lot of acreage, just the land is worth the market capitalization.
And then you have to see okay dividend will likely be lower as there are some pressures on the results. lumber always be turning into losses. The less rest is holding but this will just be seen later as now we have seen a decline in the housing less orders.
This means this will translate into lower numbers next year for this company because those are the starting companies and then it with the lag will transfer into lower still lower demand and that's why you see the pressure on the stock.
The outlook is still okay. Everything still looks there but we have to see how will this look let's say next year but a lot of that is already priced in. This was almost 40 bucks 5 years ago.
Now it's 21. If you look at the situation, if you look at the acreage, the values there, we are practically trading now at the value of the land, the risks, dividend cut probably there is some debt.
They can always sell land to cover the debt. So not like inherently risks there. But if you want to own this, now is this time to start buying. Be ready to buy more in stages and then trade around what happens with the cycle.
In the meantime, the trees are growing. It's not stellar growth. What is it? The E number 2 something. That's the value of the trees that they are growing. They will be cutting less.
More trees growing more value in the future. More boring than this it doesn't get. and you see how it has to fit your portfolio. Berkshire is buying lener not this and I think that is because Berkshire likes more growth housing in is in a crisis there will be more demand just survive the cycle