$WY · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-10
WY 现在是分批买入的时机：约 21 美元时，其股价接近土地价值，可能的股息削减以及住房订单下滑导致的下一年业绩走低已基本被定价；债务并非固有风险，因为土地可以出售。林木价值增长缓慢，该股乏味，但减少砍伐应能让更多树木生长，随时间带来更多价值；说话者会现在开始买入并分批加仓，围绕周期进行交易。
逐段跳播
接下来看第三个，和这个板块相关的。我们6个月前在一个视频里讨论过它。这里说的是拥有木材、木料、加工、土地、大量林地，光是土地就值这个市值了。然后你得看到，好吧，股息很可能会更低，因为业绩面临一些压力。
木料总是会变成亏损。剩下的部分还撑得住，但这要以后才会显现，因为我们现在已经看到房屋订单下降。这意味着明年这家公司的数字会更低，因为那些是起始公司，然后它会滞后地传导为更低、更低的需求，这就是你看到股价承压的原因。
前景仍然还可以。一切看起来都还在，但我们得看看明年会是什么样子，不过很多已经反映在价格里了。5年前它差不多是40美元。现在是21。如果你看这个情况，看这些林地、那里的价值，我们现在实际上是在按土地的价值交易，风险方面，很可能会有股息削减，还有一些债务。
他们总可以卖地来偿还债务。所以并不是本身就有风险。但如果你想持有它，现在是不是开始买入的时机。要做好分批加仓的准备，然后围绕周期的变化来交易。与此同时，树木在生长。这不是惊人的增长。
是多少呢？E那个数字，2点几。这就是他们正在生长的树木的价值。他们会砍得更少。更多树木生长，未来价值更高。没有比这更无聊的了。然后你看它如何契合你的投资组合。Berkshire买的是lener，不是这个，我认为那是因为Berkshire更喜欢增长，住房正处于危机中，需求会增加，只要熬过这个周期就行。
And let's go to the third one related to the sector. We have discussed it in a video 6 months ago. And here it is about owning timber, lumber, processing, land, a lot of acreage, just the land is worth the market capitalization.
And then you have to see okay dividend will likely be lower as there are some pressures on the results. lumber always be turning into losses. The less rest is holding but this will just be seen later as now we have seen a decline in the housing less orders.
This means this will translate into lower numbers next year for this company because those are the starting companies and then it with the lag will transfer into lower still lower demand and that's why you see the pressure on the stock.
The outlook is still okay. Everything still looks there but we have to see how will this look let's say next year but a lot of that is already priced in. This was almost 40 bucks 5 years ago.
Now it's 21. If you look at the situation, if you look at the acreage, the values there, we are practically trading now at the value of the land, the risks, dividend cut probably there is some debt.
They can always sell land to cover the debt. So not like inherently risks there. But if you want to own this, now is this time to start buying. Be ready to buy more in stages and then trade around what happens with the cycle.
In the meantime, the trees are growing. It's not stellar growth. What is it? The E number 2 something. That's the value of the trees that they are growing. They will be cutting less.
More trees growing more value in the future. More boring than this it doesn't get. and you see how it has to fit your portfolio. Berkshire is buying lener not this and I think that is because Berkshire likes more growth housing in is in a crisis there will be more demand just survive the cycle