One view is bearish/short XLF: it rose 53 to 56 but major banks did not, and Berkshire Hathaway diverging from them is a setup to bet against the trend. Another sees bullish daily chart next two weeks, possible pullback, weekly uptrend; hard to bet against over two or three months; Berkshire base-building complicates.

Your first choice is XLF, the financial sector exchange-traded fund here. We have listened to the results of the major banks. We have listened to a fair number of regional banks.

There are still some remaining financial names that will announce their results this week and next week. But overall , how do you view XLF today?

I am looking to sell XLF short . That would definitely be a bearish deal . Let me give you some of the reasons behind that. It might be a little more difficult for Kevin to look at this in terms of a graph.

I mean, it's easy to see. It is very clear and easy to see with regard to XLF. It has risen, hasn't it? It rose from 53 to 56. It saw good demand. But what is overlooked when examining XLF independently is the fact that, whether it was JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, or Morgan Stanley, it did not actually rise.

What sustains the entire financial sector is actually Berkshire Hathaway, which is the core component of XLF. This kind of divergence between the banks themselves and Berkshire Hathaway, I think, is a very good setup for betting against the market trend.

And that's exactly what I'm going to do again . I will enter into an options trade, with a specified and appropriate risk spread . I will use the options expiry date of November 20th.

I will buy a spread with a bid of $2. I will buy put options at a price of $56.50. So, buying put options at 56.50 and selling put options at 54.50, is that correct? Just a spread with a $2 bid, as I said a moment ago, at a cost of 75 cents.

So, I am focusing entirely on the trading price of the underlying asset. We only need a very slight move towards the downward trend. I think the banks' performance was not great compared to Berkshire Hathaway.

This, for me, is a good recipe for betting against the XLF fund.

Yes, before we talk about the graphs, he was right in what he said. The issue is really concentrated in Berkshire Hathaway. But what also makes it difficult is that Berkshire Hathaway is in a base-building and penetration phase that has taken a year and a half.

So, this makes it a bit difficult as well . As for XLF itself, if we look at the daily chart for one year, we know that it is indeed able to maintain some of these key moving averages.

In particular, the 200-day moving average is what we really want to highlight. At this time last year, around November, we saw XLF pull back and hold at the 200-day moving average before it rose.

We have witnessed a decline. We have broken through the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. We continued to decline, and we saw some buyers actually step in at the $48 level . This actually happened on March 30th.

What also happened there was the appearance of a bullish "Harami" candlestick . Basically, you had a large bearish candle and an inside bullish candle, which we considered to be surrender bottoms.

We went back up, retested the 20-day moving average, couldn't break through it, then held firm, and now we've broken through. As you know, we have seen a kind of flattening or decline here, mainly from August to September of this year.

We have already pulled back, but the 200-day moving average is once again acting as a support zone. We managed to break through the 20- day level, exploiting it as a resistance zone, and now it is acting as a support zone.

The next resistance zone here is the 50-day moving average . Even if it pulls back and retests the 20- day level, it could return to around the 57.5 to 58.5 level for the XLF fund.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is recording higher lows, the MACD indicator is in a bullish formation, and the 12-period exponential moving average is above 26. The daily chart looks mostly bullish over the next two weeks.

If we look at the weekly chart, it will be very simple. We have a trend line from the lows we recorded here, and we were able to test it. The 50-week moving average was also converging with this trend line, and we are now testing the 20-week moving average.

This chart is still recording higher lows, and higher highs are expected to be recorded here. The trend is upward on the weekly chart, although a slight pullback in the near term of a week or two may be possible.

It is really difficult to bet against this chart in the long term, and by that I mean a period of approximately two or three months.

Well, as we just looked at the performance since the beginning of the year, it's been fairly consistent. I mean, it's only up 2 % here for XLF.