一种观点看空/做空 XLF：它从 53 涨到 56，但大型银行并未跟涨，Berkshire Hathaway 与它们走势背离，构成逆势下注的格局。另一种观点认为未来两周日线图看涨，可能出现回调，周线处于上升趋势；未来两三个月难以看空；Berkshire 的筑底走势使局面复杂。
逐段跳播
你的首选是 XLF，即这里的金融板块交易所交易基金。我们已经听了大型银行的业绩，也听了相当多地区性银行的业绩。本周和下周还有一些金融类公司将要公布业绩。但总体而言，你今天怎么看 XLF？
Your first choice is XLF, the financial sector exchange-traded fund here. We have listened to the results of the major banks. We have listened to a fair number of regional banks.
There are still some remaining financial names that will announce their results this week and next week. But overall , how do you view XLF today?
我打算做空 XLF。那肯定会是一笔看跌交易。让我给你讲讲背后的几个理由。Kevin 从图表角度来看这件事可能会稍微困难一些。我的意思是，这很容易看出来。就 XLF 而言，这非常清楚、很容易看出来。
它涨了，不是吗？它从53涨到了56。它获得了不错的需求。但单独考察 XLF 时被忽视的一点是，无论是 JPMorgan、Citi、Bank of America、Wells Fargo 还是 Morgan Stanley，它们实际上都没有上涨。
支撑整个金融板块的实际上是 Berkshire Hathaway，它是 XLF 的核心成分股。银行本身与 Berkshire Hathaway 之间的这种背离，我认为是一个非常好的逆势押注的布局。
而这正是我要再次去做的。我会做一笔期权交易，采用明确且合适的风险价差。我会用11月20日的期权到期日。我会买入一个买价为2美元的价差。我会买入行权价56.50美元的看跌期权。所以，买入行权价56.50的看跌期权，卖出行权价54.50的看跌期权，对吗？
就像我刚才说的，只是一个买价2美元的价差，成本为75美分。所以，我完全专注于标的资产的交易价格。我们只需要非常小幅地朝下跌方向移动就够了。我认为银行的表现相比 Berkshire Hathaway 并不出色。对我来说，这是做空 XLF 基金的一个好配方。
I am looking to sell XLF short . That would definitely be a bearish deal . Let me give you some of the reasons behind that. It might be a little more difficult for Kevin to look at this in terms of a graph.
I mean, it's easy to see. It is very clear and easy to see with regard to XLF. It has risen, hasn't it? It rose from 53 to 56. It saw good demand. But what is overlooked when examining XLF independently is the fact that, whether it was JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, or Morgan Stanley, it did not actually rise.
What sustains the entire financial sector is actually Berkshire Hathaway, which is the core component of XLF. This kind of divergence between the banks themselves and Berkshire Hathaway, I think, is a very good setup for betting against the market trend.
And that's exactly what I'm going to do again . I will enter into an options trade, with a specified and appropriate risk spread . I will use the options expiry date of November 20th.
I will buy a spread with a bid of $2. I will buy put options at a price of $56.50. So, buying put options at 56.50 and selling put options at 54.50, is that correct? Just a spread with a $2 bid, as I said a moment ago, at a cost of 75 cents.
So, I am focusing entirely on the trading price of the underlying asset. We only need a very slight move towards the downward trend. I think the banks' performance was not great compared to Berkshire Hathaway.
This, for me, is a good recipe for betting against the XLF fund.
是的，在谈图表之前，他说的没错。问题其实主要集中在Berkshire Hathaway上。但同样让事情变得困难的是，Berkshire Hathaway正处于一个已经持续了一年半的筑底和渗透阶段。
所以，这也让情况有点棘手。至于XLF本身，如果我们看一年的日线图，我们知道它确实能够守住其中一些关键移动平均线。尤其是200日移动平均线，这是我们真正想强调的。去年这个时候，大约在11月，我们看到XLF回落并守住200日移动平均线，然后才上涨。
我们目睹了一轮下跌。我们跌破了20日、50日和200日移动平均线。我们继续下跌，然后我们看到一些买家实际上在48美元的水平进场。这实际上发生在3月30日。当时还出现了看涨的“孕线”K线形态。
基本上，就是一根大阴线加一根内包的阳线，我们认为这是投降式底部。我们回升，重新测试20日移动平均线，没能突破，然后站稳，现在我们已经突破了。如你所知，我们在这里看到了一种走平或下跌，主要是今年8月到9月。
我们已经回落，但200日移动平均线再次充当支撑区。我们成功突破了20日水平，把它当作阻力区来利用，现在它又充当支撑区。这里下一个阻力区是50日移动平均线。即使它回落并重新测试20日水平，也可能回到XLF基金57.5到58.5左右的水平。
相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更高的低点，MACD指标处于看涨形态，12期指数移动平均线位于26期之上。日线图在未来两周看起来总体偏多。如果我们看周线图，就非常简单了。我们从这里记录的低点画出一条趋势线，我们能够测试它。
50周移动平均线也与这条趋势线收敛，而我们现在正在测试20周移动平均线。这张图仍在录得更高的低点，预计这里还会录得更高的高点。周线图上的趋势是向上的，尽管未来一两周短期内可能会有小幅回落。
长期来看，真的很难做空这张图，我说的长期是指大约两三个月的时间。
Yes, before we talk about the graphs, he was right in what he said. The issue is really concentrated in Berkshire Hathaway. But what also makes it difficult is that Berkshire Hathaway is in a base-building and penetration phase that has taken a year and a half.
So, this makes it a bit difficult as well . As for XLF itself, if we look at the daily chart for one year, we know that it is indeed able to maintain some of these key moving averages.
In particular, the 200-day moving average is what we really want to highlight. At this time last year, around November, we saw XLF pull back and hold at the 200-day moving average before it rose.
We have witnessed a decline. We have broken through the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. We continued to decline, and we saw some buyers actually step in at the $48 level . This actually happened on March 30th.
What also happened there was the appearance of a bullish "Harami" candlestick . Basically, you had a large bearish candle and an inside bullish candle, which we considered to be surrender bottoms.
We went back up, retested the 20-day moving average, couldn't break through it, then held firm, and now we've broken through. As you know, we have seen a kind of flattening or decline here, mainly from August to September of this year.
We have already pulled back, but the 200-day moving average is once again acting as a support zone. We managed to break through the 20- day level, exploiting it as a resistance zone, and now it is acting as a support zone.
The next resistance zone here is the 50-day moving average . Even if it pulls back and retests the 20- day level, it could return to around the 57.5 to 58.5 level for the XLF fund.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is recording higher lows, the MACD indicator is in a bullish formation, and the 12-period exponential moving average is above 26. The daily chart looks mostly bullish over the next two weeks.
If we look at the weekly chart, it will be very simple. We have a trend line from the lows we recorded here, and we were able to test it. The 50-week moving average was also converging with this trend line, and we are now testing the 20-week moving average.
This chart is still recording higher lows, and higher highs are expected to be recorded here. The trend is upward on the weekly chart, although a slight pullback in the near term of a week or two may be possible.
It is really difficult to bet against this chart in the long term, and by that I mean a period of approximately two or three months.
嗯，正如我们刚刚看到的年初以来的表现，它相当一致。我的意思是，XLF在这里只涨了2%。
Well, as we just looked at the performance since the beginning of the year, it's been fairly consistent. I mean, it's only up 2 % here for XLF.