Asymmetric Investing by Travis HoiumPublished 2026-10-13
“Bumble's Sudden Buyout: The Real Reason Behind the Deal”
$BMBLBearish
Bumble is being bought for $6.05 a share in cash, a 138% premium; as a shareholder the speaker will accept it and will likely exit, since at about $5.95 only roughly 10 cents of upside is left, against a fall back to about $2 if the deal fails, and he does not expect a higher bid.
Bumble's stock has risen by approximately 135% in just the last two days. In fact, this is not the result I expected as a shareholder in " Bumble". It has now become an unexpected win in the Asymmetric portfolio,
but I will accept this acquisition because the business has not gone in the direction I thought when I started buying the shares. Sometimes your hypothesis doesn't go exactly as planned, but when you buy companies that generate positive free cash flow and trade at a very good valuation, one of the great advantages is the possibility that someone else could take over the company and change its course.