持有 AAPL,并希望加仓;在发布会当天买入,预期新手机将售罄,并认为 AAPL 能到 500 美元。预计新款设备双机、Mac Mini 和 Mac Studio 会因 AI 需求而售罄,更便宜的 Apple 机器也会因运行本地模型而售罄——公司及股价潜力巨大。
逐段跳播
唉,Apple,你这个贪婪的小东西,作为雇主你根本不可信。给所有经营小生意的人一句忠告:别信Apple。让我来给你讲讲事情到底是怎么运作的。当你经营一家企业,为你的员工或团队购买Apple产品时,你最终要打交道的是一个叫Apple商务经理的角色。
Well, Apple, you greedy little thing, you can't be trusted as an employer. A general message to anyone running a small business: Don't trust Apple. Let me explain to you how things really work.
When you run a business and purchase Apple products for your employees or team, you end up communicating with what is called an Apple business manager.
这些商务经理的目标,是尽量为你提供优质服务,帮你订购你需要的东西,基本上你会拿到一个可以打电话联系的人的号码,用来确保你的移动设备管理设置妥当,或者按你想要的方式订购产品。
The goal is for these business managers to try to provide you with a premium service to help you order what you need, and essentially you get a phone number for someone you can call to make sure your mobile device management is set up or to order your products the way you want.
Apple的商务团队联系了我这家小公司,然后他们显然遭遇了一场全国性的灾难性故障,而我们得到的只有一句“抱歉,我们搞砸了”。但别担心,兄弟,我们帮不了你什么。
Well, Apple's business team contacted my small company, then they apparently suffered a catastrophic nationwide failure, and all we got was "Sorry, we messed up ." But don't worry, my brother. We can't do anything for you.
所以,给所有企业主一句忠告:想把事情做好,就自己动手。这本该是做生意学到的第一课,但Apple已经让我对他们的本地商务团队彻底失去了尊重,我也不太在乎到底是谁的错,因为最终责任都在Apple身上。
So, a message to all business owners: if you want something done right, do it yourself. That should have been a first lesson in business, but Apple has made me lose all respect for their local business teams, and I don't really care who's at fault because it ends with Apple.
接下来就是会发生的情况,以及你今后如何避免掉进这个陷阱。如果Apple哪天联系你,说:“尊敬的企业主,我们是你当地Apple Store的一员。”“我们可以为你想要的任何设备提供预订,并在凌晨5点替你提交像iPhone这样的新产品的订单,因为我们有一套系统可以代你下单。”挂掉电话,赶紧跑,别听他们的,自己买产品。
Here's what happens and how you can avoid falling into this trap in the future. If Apple ever contacted you and said, "Dear Business Owner, we are part of your local Apple Store."
"We can offer pre-orders for any devices you want and send your order for a new product like an iPhone at 5:00 AM because we have a system that sends the order on your behalf."
Hang up, run away, don't listen to them, buy the product yourself.
别信Apple。让我给你看看事情是怎么运作的。周一,我接到了Judy的电话和邮件,她是个非常好的人。真的很好。我不怪她。总的来说,我认为“The Oaks”那家Apple店的员工不该为此负责。
Don't trust Apple. Let me show you how things work . On Monday, I received phone calls and emails from Judy, who is a wonderful person. It's wonderful. I don't blame her. In general, I believe that the staff at the Apple store in "The Oaks" are not responsible for this.
但他们联系我说:“嘿,我们有一套系统,可以马上帮你下单。”“我们可以把它关联到你的公司。”“我们可以通过你参与的那个媒体项目来提交,周五凌晨5点就能搞定,那天正是预订日。”
But they contacted me and said, "Hey, we have a system through which we can order your items right now." "We can link it to your company." "We can send it through the media program you are participating in, and it will be done at 5:00 AM on Friday, which is the pre-order day."
于是我说:“反正我凌晨5点也醒着。”“自己起来下单对我来说不是什么大事。”“不行不行不行,要通过你的工作渠道来关联。”哦,我们能帮你搞定这个。你知道,最好还是通过商务团队下单。
别被这套说辞骗了。他们就像美人鱼,想把你引诱到商务平台,把销量从apple.com引到本地门店。
So I said, "I'm awake at 5:00 AM anyway." "It's not a big deal for me to wake up and place the order myself." "No, no, no, connect it through your work." Oh, we'll be able to do this for you .
You know, it's best to order it through the business team. Don't be fooled by that. They are like mermaids, trying to lure you to the business platform to divert sales away from apple.com to local stores.
但当本地门店没能和全国系统正常沟通时,猜猜谁来面对问题?是你,先生。还有你,女士,只能独自面对问题。那么,这就是报价单。我在10月12日收到了这份报价单。你完全可以看出来这是Apple发来的报价单。
我打开了这封邮件。这个地址是theoaksbusiness@apple.com。他们周一给我发来了报价单。我说:“太好了。”所以,你们已经同意付款了。我们谈好了发货。我们谈好了付款方式。
我们已经下了单。我们提前5天就把订单的一切都办好了。我说:“好吧,我想我们不用再做别的了。”我们搞定了。
But when local stores fail to communicate properly with the national system , guess who is left to face the problem? You, sir. And you, madam, are left to face the problem alone.
So, this is the price quote. I received this price quote on October 12th. You can literally see that this is a price quote from Apple. I have opened this email. This address is theoaksbusiness@apple.com.
They sent me the price quote on Monday. And I said , "Wonderful." So, you have already agreed to pay. We agreed on the shipping. We agreed on the payment method. We have placed the order.
We did everything for the order 5 days in advance. I said, "Well, I guess we don't need to do anything anymore ." We're done.
他们说会在凌晨5点提交申请。撒谎。他们实际上是在早上8点34分提交的申请。他们晚了3个半小时才提交。然后他们说:“别担心,Kevin。如果你在5点整没看到邮件,我们之后会手动把收据发给你。”
于是我想:“哦,好吧。行,这很正常。”不,那只是第二个谎言。所以,第一个谎言是“我们会在凌晨5点提交你的订单”。谎言一号。第二,没收到邮件也别担心。那要么是谎言,要么是个严重错误。总之,谢谢你,Apple。
They said they would submit the application at 5:00 AM. Lies. They actually submitted the application at 8:34 AM. They submitted the application 3 and a half hours late. Now, they said, "Don't worry, Kevin.
If you don't see an email at exactly 5:00, we'll send you the receipt manually later." So, I thought, "Oh, okay. Yes, that's normal." No, that was just the second lie. So, the first lie was "We will submit your order at 5:00 AM".
Lie number one. Second, don't worry if you don't receive an email. That was either a lie or a grave mistake. Anyway, thank you, Apple.
现在,我想说清楚。我不是在说:“哦,我必须排在所有凌晨5点起床的人前面。”我是说,他们告诉我,我会和所有人一样在凌晨5点那一批里。虽然我醒着,本可以自己提交申请,但Apple向我承诺这个申请会在凌晨5点提交。
Now, I want to be clear. I am not saying, "Oh, I must be in front of everyone else who woke up at 5:00 AM." I say they told me I would be in class with everyone at 5:00 AM. Although I was awake and could have submitted the request myself, Apple promised me that this request would be submitted at 5:00 AM.
然后我接到了一通电话,因为看到这条消息和建议后就很清楚了:我们已经排到了队尾,要到1月29日我生日之后才能拿到这些手机,那是他们给我们的日期。我这里有截图。总之,这件事我们已经走到尽头了。
Then I received a phone call, because it was clear after seeing this message and the suggestion that we were already at the end of the line and that we wouldn't see these phones until after my birthday, January 29, which is the date they gave us .
I have a screenshot of that here. In short, we have reached the end of this matter.
记住,我当时正在做关于这个话题的视频,我谈到我相信这款手机会卖光。我实际上在发布当天就买了Apple的股票,因为我说:“这款产品会卖光。股价最晚到2027年第一季度就会涨到头。我的意思是,这件事上你得快。你应该买。”
Keep in mind that I was making videos about this topic and I was talking about my belief that this phone would sell out . I actually bought Apple shares on the day of the announcement because I said, "This product will sell out.
The stock will run out as late as the first quarter of 2027. I mean, you have to be quick on this. You should buy it."
“所以我想:‘哦,我们有这个销售团队。’那会帮到他们,对我们也有好处。”“我其实不太在乎,因为自己下单本来也就花5分钟,但我想:‘嘿,看在过去一直对我们很友善的员工的情分上,何不通过他们下单,让他们也能记上一功呢?’”
“那就是我的目的。我不是想插队。目的是:‘嘿,咱们帮本地Apple团队多拿点销量什么的。’”
"So, I thought, 'Oh, we have this sales team.' That will help them, and it will benefit us as well . "I do n't really care because ordering the product myself would have taken 5 minutes, but I thought: "Hey, out of respect for the staff who have been kind to us historically, why don't we place the order through them so they get credit for it?"
"That was my goal. I'm not trying to cut in line. The goal was: 'Hey, let's help the local Apple team get some extra sales or something.'"
“我不知道他们有没有拿佣金。后来我接到了一通电话,因为我给他们发了邮件,我说:‘到底怎么回事?’于是,我接到了Judy的电话,我再说一遍,她人非常好,来自Ox团队。但是,我接到了一通电话——你能看到,是9点17分——他们告诉我Apple发生了一场全国性的商业故障。
显然,这听起来就是Apple的营销鬼话。但基本上,他们说:‘各位,整个系统崩了。也许是订单太多了。哦,我们实际上没法完成所有商业订单。’所以,基本上,每个想订购这些产品的团队都被卡住了。”
"I do n't know if they're getting a commission or not. Then I got a phone call because I emailed them, and I was like, 'What the hell is going on?' So, I got a phone call from Judy , who, I repeat, is amazing, from the Ox team.
But, I got a phone call—you can see it there at 9:17—and they told me Apple had a nationwide commercial failure. There was, apparently, and this sounds like just Apple marketing nonsense .
But, basically, they said, 'Guys, the whole system crashed. Maybe there were too many orders. Oh, we couldn't actually fulfill all the commercial orders.' So, basically, every team that wanted to order these products was held up.
这是我在X平台上找到的另一条,说:“我信任Apple的商务团队来处理这件事。”唉。所以,给企业主一句忠告,然后我们再稍微聊聊股票。给企业主一句忠告:永远、永远、永远不要相信Apple的商务团队。如果你真的信任他们,他们一定会让你失望。
Here's another one I found on Platform X, saying, 'I trusted Apple's commercial team to handle it.' Ugh. So, a general message to business owners, and then we'll talk a bit about stocks.
A general message to business owners: NEVER, NEVER, NEVER trust Apple's commercial team. They will let you down if you truly trust them.
我太失望了,我认为我有理由失望,因为我本来会很乐意自己下单买这个产品。说实话,我应该下双份订单。我本该自己下单,因为我早就怀疑他们会搞砸,而我没有听从自己的直觉。所以,亲爱的 Apple 和 Apple 的高管们,你们太糟糕了。就这样。简直糟透了。
I'm so disappointed, and I think I'm right to be, because I was I'll gladly order the product myself . Honestly, I should have double-ordered. I should have ordered it myself because I suspected they were going to mess it up, and I didn't listen to my gut.
So, dear Apple and Apple executives, you're terrible. That's it. Absolutely terrible .
现在,这大概率会非常有利于这款设备的销售。我只是觉得,当你承诺了某件事,然后却以如此惊人的方式失败,这很糟糕。所以,我希望人们卖掉他们的股票。但我希望人们卖掉股票,是因为我私下里想买入 Apple 股票。
其实,这也不是什么秘密。我一直对此非常公开。我持有 Apple 股票。我想买入更多 Apple 股票。我认为它会值500美元。
Now, this is probably going to be very good for sales of this device. I just think it's bad when you promise something and then fail so spectacularly. So, I hope people sell their stock.
But I hope people sell their stock because I secretly want to buy Apple stock. Actually, it's not a secret. I've been very open about this. I own Apple stock. I want to buy more Apple stock. I think it's going to be worth $500 .
我认为 Apple 这两款产品会卖断货。我认为 Mac Mini 和 Mac Studio 会因为 AI 而卖断货,但那是用来运行你自己的模型的。事实上,我还认为笔记本电脑也会开始因为运行经销商业务而卖断货。
更便宜的 Apple 机器会因为运行经销商业务而卖断货,因为运行基于云的代理不需要大量内存。所以,我认为这家公司和这只股票有巨大的潜力。
I think this Apple duo will sell out. I think the Mac Mini and Mac Studio will sell out because of AI, but that's for running your own models. In fact, I also think laptops will start selling out for running dealerships.
The cheaper Apple machines will sell out for running dealerships because you don't need to A lot of RAM to run a cloud-based proxy. So, I think there's tremendous potential for the company and the stock.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 18 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。