$AAPL

苹果以硬件为先的战略是正确的,它凭借生态优势,而不是去追逐 AI 模型竞赛。iPhone Duo 需求强劲、订单增加 30% 是好消息,前提是这些设备的利润率等于或超过传统 iPhone;AAPL 表现坚挺并创下历史新高,17 天后将公布财报。

看涨他说的是几个月内
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The Investor Channel发布 2026-10-16 · 10 段内容
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而现在,Apple 也推出了 HomeView 设备。我们会聊这个。299美元。天哪,这个价格我觉得非常有意思。

And now, Apple is also launching the HomeView device. We will talk about this. $299. Oh my God, that's a price I think is very interesting.

现在,你需要把两台这样的设备叠在一起。按完整规格来算,我认为你说的成本远超25,000美元。价格可能还要更高。我相信单台设备满配的成本就达到10,000。成本可能达到20,000美元这个区间。

我不知道在40,000美元的硬件上运行一个中端开源模型的市场是否很大,但这里有意思的是 Meta 和 Apple 之间明确的合作。

Now, you need to stack two of these devices together. With the full specifications, I think you're talking about a cost well over $25,000. The price might be even higher than that.

I believe the cost of a single device reaches 10,000 when fully equipped. The cost could reach the range of $20,000. I do n't know if the market for running a mid-level open-source model on $40,000 hardware is a large one, but what's interesting here is the clear collaboration between Meta and Apple.

说到 Apple 部门,新任 CEO——我认为他干得非常出色——表示未来可能会有更多这类事情发生。我认为这是正确的策略,不仅对 Apple 如此,对 Meta 也是如此。与领先的硬件制造商合作是一件极好的事。

When we get to the Apple department, the new CEO, who I think is doing a really great job, indicated that more of these things may happen in the future. I think it's the right strategy , not just for Apple, but for Meta as well.

Partnering with a leading hardware maker is a fantastic thing to do .

突发消息,对正在看我的各位来说我并没有透露什么新东西,根本没人关心。现在说 Apple,本周开盘在340美元,Apple 股价本周表现稳健。它可能是本周上涨的少数几只“七大科技股”之一,涨了近1%,达到343美元。

Breaking news, I'm not revealing anything new to any of you who are watching me, nobody cares at all. Now, turning to Apple, the week started at $340, and Apple shares have held up well this week.

It is perhaps one of the few " Great Seven" stocks that rose this week, gaining nearly 1% to reach $343.

这伴随着公司推出其所谓的“HomePod”,它看起来像是一个装在音箱上的 iPod,他们还为此发布了更新。我不知道自己会不会买一台这样的设备,但我认为299美元的价格会是很棒的节日礼物。

再说一次,对于送300美元礼物的人来说,我觉得这台设备会非常合适。如果你生活中有想送礼的人,而他们已经有 iPhone、Apple Watch,以及你能想到的各种其他小玩意。那我向你保证,他们没有这台设备。

300美元不算太贵,而且是一份贴心的礼物。我们会看这些设备的销售随时间如何发展。这些设备,这些 iPad,会卖得好吗?会卖得像 AirPods 一样多吗?如果真是那样,那将是致命一击,从产品角度看对 Apple 是巨大的成功。

This comes with the company's launch of what it calls the "HomePod," which looks like an iPod mounted on one of these speakers, for which they have also released an update . I don't know if I'll buy one of these devices, but I think at $299 it would make a great gift for the holiday season .

Again, for wealthy people who give gifts worth $300, I think this device would be a perfect fit . If you have someone in your life you would like to buy a gift for, and they already have an iPhone, an Apple Watch, and every other gadget you can imagine.

Well, I guarantee you that they don't have this device. At $300, it's not too expensive, and it's a thoughtful gift. We will see how sales of these devices develop over time. Will these devices, the iPads, sell successfully?

Will it sell as much as AirPods? If that happens, it will be a knockout blow and a resounding success from a product perspective for Apple.

他们还发布了一款4K电视。对我来说,这台设备的挑战在于它要299美元。我记得它的价格原本是99美元,可能涨到过149美元,但现在你付的是300多美元。我的意思是,你在 Costco 这样的商店花300美元就能买到一台完整的电视。

而现在,你花299美元买这个接在电视上的小盒子。他们在这里宣传的当然是性能很强的显示器,但也许从游戏角度看,你可以用它获得强劲的游戏体验,也许你健身或做别的事时也能用。它显然与 Apple 生态完全整合,也许对他们来说300美元不算什么,但我已经有一台了,我记得我花了99美元。我绝不可能付300美元。

They also launched a 4K television. The challenge for me with this device is that it costs $299. I think its price was originally $99, and it may have gone up to $149, but now you're over $300.

I mean, you can get a complete TV from a store like Costco for $300. Now, you pay $299 for this small box that attaches to the television. What they are advertising here is of course very powerful monitors , but perhaps also from a gaming perspective, you can use it and have powerful gaming experiences , and perhaps if you are working out or otherwise.

It's clearly fully integrated with Apple's ecosystem, and perhaps for them $300 isn't a big deal, but I already own one that I think I paid $99 for. There is no way I would pay $300.

现在,本周发布的另一款新产品是 iPhone Duo,它的需求一直延续到1月。所以,如果你想买一台,要到1月才能拿到。这会导致转售价格更高,因此这会搅动局面。随着我们进入节日送礼季,这将是“热门”产品。

如果有人想要 iPhone Duo,他们没法从 Apple 买到,就会转向 eBay 或二手市场,它不会卖两三千美元,而很可能卖得贵得多。这会促使更多人预订下一批 Apple 产品,看来他们手里有一款非常受欢迎的设备。

Now, the other new product released this week is the iPhone Duo, and demand for it extends into January. So, if you try to buy one, you won't get it until January. This will lead to higher resale prices , and therefore this will shake things up .

This will be the "hot" product as we enter the holiday gift season . If someone wants an iPhone Duo, they won't be able to get it from Apple, so they'll turn to eBay or the secondary market, and instead of selling it for two or three thousand dollars, it will likely sell for much more .

This will prompt more people to pre-order the next batch of Apple products, and it seems they have a very popular device in their hands.

我要对你说,如果你买得起2,000美元的手机,天哪,来加州请我吃顿饭吧。你真是个了不起的人。这正值公司把 iPhone Duo 的订单增加30%,我记得大约一周前我们谈过新闻报道,说 Apple 可能一直在削减其最新 iPhone——也就是标准版 iPhone——的部分出货量。

在我看来,有相当多消费者一直在等“Duo”发布,他们愿意多花钱买到最新、最好、最能折叠的手机。这对 Apple 来说是好消息,只要我假设这些设备的整体利润率等于、甚至可能超过传统手机的利润率。

And I say to you, if you can afford a $2,000 mobile phone, oh my god, come to California and invite me to dinner. You are a truly wonderful person. This comes at a time when the company is increasing iPhone Duo orders by 30%, and I think we talked about a week ago about news reports that Apple may have been cutting back on some shipments of its latest iPhones, the standard iPhone, so to speak.

It seems to me that there were quite a few consumers who were waiting for the release of the "Due" and who wanted to pay more to get the latest, best, and most foldable phone. This is great news for Apple, as long as I assume that the overall profit margins on those devices are equal to, or perhaps even exceed, those of the traditional phone.

新任 CEO John Ternos 继续专注于硬件,而不是去打造那些“当月潮流”式的 AI 模型。我认为这显然是一个绝妙的策略。这个策略在他上任之前就已经存在,但我喜欢苹果遵循的这个策略。

每周都有新东西,就像我们刚才聊到的“Meta Muse One”或其他很酷的东西。各位,再过一两周,OpenAI 和 ChatGPT 就会发布一个大型语言模型,到时候真的没人会再用“Muse”了。

Gemini 这周公布了一个原型。一旦“Vibel 5.5”发布,也没人会用它。所以我认为,这种模型之间所谓的疯狂竞赛会变得有点让人疲惫,而且竞争显然非常激烈。与此同时,苹果生态的位置在哪里?

他们的竞争优势在哪里?显然在硬件上,而我喜欢这个策略。

The new CEO, John Ternos, continues to focus on hardware rather than creating AI models that are the "trend of the month". I think this is clearly a brilliant strategy. This strategy was already in place before he took office, but I like this strategy that Apple follows.

Every week, just like we just talked about "Meta Muse One " or other cool stuff. Guys, in a week or two , OpenAI and ChatGPT will release a major language model, and literally no one will use "Muse" anymore .

Gemini unveiled a prototype this week. No one will use it once "Vibel 5.5" is released. Therefore, I think this frantic race, so to speak, between models will become a bit exhausting , and it is obviously very competitive.

Meanwhile, where does the Apple ecosystem reside? Where is their competitive advantage ? It's clearly in the hardware, and I like that strategy.

现在,苹果将在17天后公布财报。我的意思是,它刚刚确认了新的历史新高。这张图非常扎实,你可以看到。

Now, Apple will announce its earnings in 17 days. I mean, it just confirmed a new record high. This graph is as solid as you can see.

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The Investor Channel 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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